310
FXUS65 KFGZ 072309
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
409 PM MST Fri Jun 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures will continue, although they
will peak today, with some cooling over the weekend. Any isolated
showers and thunderstorms will primarily impact portions of eastern
Arizona through Sunday. Another warming trend returns for the middle
of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The weak influx of moisture combined with high
instability from ample heating is allowing for ample isolated
storms to develop in far eastern Arizona today. This activity is
expected to persist into the evening, especially for over the
White Mountains. Activity will eventually diminish early tonight
with the loss of heating.

Over the weekend, the ridge over Arizona will weaken and shift
east. This, combined with a weak trough settling in place to our
west will help bring some small relief to our current heat. While
POPs decrease for the weekend, high based convection is still
possible with greatest odds over and near the White Mountains,
though anything isolated forming over the higher terrain can not
be totally ruled out.

As we head into the start of next week, little change in the
overall pattern is expected, so weather conditions will be the
same for Monday and Tuesday, albeit warming slightly. However as
we go into the middle and later parts of next week, the trough
will start to move east while the high to our east strengthens.
This will set us up for temperatures to warm several degrees again
Wednesday, followed up by a slightly stronger (still minimal)
push of moisture into the area, bringing high based convection and
additional clouds to help bring temperatures back down by the
later part of next work week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 08/00Z through Sunday 09/00Z...VFR conditions
will persist. Look for isolated thunderstorms through 02Z over
and south of Four Corners. Gusty/erratic winds near storms. Winds
becoming light and variable by 03Z but return on Saturday
southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to around 25 kts.


OUTLOOK...Sunday 09/00Z through Tuesday 11/00Z...VFR conditions
are forecast. Isolated thunderstorms mainly Sunday afternoon
across eastern Arizona. Southwest winds 10-20 kts each afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tonight through Sunday...Hot and mostly dry
conditions are expected to continue through Saturday with a slight
cool down on Sunday. Smoke will continue to impact areas around and
to the west of Flagstaff during the overnight hours. Isolated
thunderstorms possible, mainly on Sunday across eastern Arizona with
gusty/erratic winds and dry lightning. Minimum RH values between 5-
15% both afternoons with decent overnight recoveries. Southwest
winds 10-20 mph on Saturday and Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Temperatures gradually warm each day with
continued dry conditions. Isolated thunderstorms possible across
eastern AZ on Wednesday. Minimum RH values will be between 5-15%
with southwest winds 10-20 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening
for AZZ005-006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...RKR
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff