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000
FXUS64 KEWX 212355
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
655 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019

.UPDATE...
See below for the 00z aviation discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...
Currently VFR at all terminals with east/southeasterly winds between
7 and 13 knots. MVFR CIGs are expected to develop at SAT/SSF around
9z/10z Thursday morning. MVFR CIGs are possible at AUS beginning
around 12z Thursday morning. AUS/SAT/SSF are expected to improve to
VFR by mid to late Thursday morning. VFR conditions are expected to
persist through the TAF period at DRT. Winds will generally become
light and variable early Thursday morning before returning to
south/southeasterly (between 5 and 11 knots) by late Thursday
morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 254 PM CDT Wed Aug 21 2019/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are spreading into the Coastal
Plains along a sea breeze early this afternoon with activity expected
to linger into the early evening hours east of Interstate 35. Loss
of heating will result in this activity quickly dissipating after
sunset with a 25 knot low level jet causing nocturnal stratus to
again spread along the Balcones Escarpment by sunrise Thursday. Low
clouds will keep overnight lows above normal in the low to mid 70s.

Onset of daytime heating will once again allow for this deck to
scatter out by mid-morning. Another round of scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop midday Thursday along the sea
breeze and move into the Coastal Plains during the afternoon. Upper
ridging centered over West Central Texas this afternoon will dampen
tomorrow as a shortwave trough crosses the Southern Plains, but this
does not appear to have too much of an effect on afternoon
temperatures with highs again in the mid 90s to low 100s. Similar to
today, sea breeze convection will quickly wane with loss of heating
Thursday night with low clouds again keeping temperatures in the low
to mid 70s.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
A series of shortwave troughs moving across the Southern and Central
Plains Friday and Saturday will keep a more zonal flow in place
across South Central Texas and prevent redevelopment or expansion of
upper ridging across the region. This will again keep rain chances
relegated to the sea breeze on Friday and Saturday with highs in the
mid 90s to lower 100s. Medium range guidance still attempts to
develop an inverted trough over northern Mexico on Saturday, but
expect this feature to remain too far west of the region to introduce
any rain chances east of the Rio Grande on Saturday.

On Sunday, a stronger trough diving across the Great Plains may
result in enough of a weakness in the mid-level height field for
isolated diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms to be possible
across the entire region and have maintained a blanket 20 percent
chance of rain. Upper ridging begins to spread back east into Texas
with the departure of this trough, but a mid-level weakness lingering
over South Texas will keep low rain chances in the forecast Monday
through Wednesday. Expect highs to remain in the mid 90s to low 100s
through the long term forecast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  99  77  98  77 /  10  -   10  10  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  98  75  97  76 /  10  10  10  10  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  97  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            75  98  74  97  74 /  -    0   0  -   -
Del Rio Intl Airport           77 100  77 102  78 /   0   0   0  -   10
Georgetown Muni Airport        76 100  76  98  76 /  10  -   10  -   -
Hondo Muni Airport             74 101  75 101  75 /   0  -   10  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  99  75  97  75 /  10  10  10  10  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  99  76  98  76 /  20  20  10  20  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  98  77  98  77 /  -   10  10  -   -
Stinson Muni Airport           76  97  76  97  77 /  10  10  10  -   -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Aviation...BMW
Short-Term/Long-Term...Runyen