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000
FXUS64 KEWX 051951
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
251 PM CDT Sun Jul 5 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Monday Night)...
The shortwave mentioned in this AMs AFD is now extending from Kansas
through western Oklahoma and north Texas. Outflows from the
overnight convection are producing showers and a few thunderstorms
across north and east Texas this afternoon. While convective
allowing high resolution models keep the bulk of the precipitation
out of our area they do show some shower activity, and possibly a
few isolated thunderstorms developing across the Hill Country and
Austin Metro later this afternoon with the arrival of another
outflow boundary. As of early Sunday afternoon this outflow is
located from Big Springs to Abilene and Mineral Wells. It is already
producing a few isolated shower. Slight chance PoPs have been
included for the afternoon and early evening extending from
Kerrville to San Marcos to Smithville and points north of there.
This means that most areas across the Edwards Plateau, Rio Grande,
San Antonio and Coastal Plains will remain dry today. Even in the
areas including in the slight chance PoPs most areas won`t see
showers today as activity should be very isolated.

Tonight southerly winds will strengthen slightly and become more
southeasterly increasing moisture across the area. This will do two
things. It will prevent dew points from mixing out leading to
slightly warmer overnight lows. Additionally, it will provide higher
precipitable water values for the day on Monday.

Models depict another vort max or weak disturbance approaching in the
northerly flow on Monday. While the GFS and ECMWF are generally
weaker and more disorganize with the shortwave on Monday the
Canadian brings a vorticity maxima into the Hill Country, while the
NAM focuses it more towards the ArkLaTex. With additional moisture,
and possibly the additional lift of the shortwave around have
continued to include slight chance PoPs for Monday, mainly across
the Hill Country and Austin Metro area. With increase cloud cover in
place on Monday afternoon highs will be a bit cooler across these
areas in the mid to upper 90s, rather than close to 100. The San
Antonio Metro and Rio Grande Plains though, which will continue to
run on the dry and hot side will see highs in the 99-104 range.

&&

.LONG TERM (Tuesday through Sunday)...
The aforementioned weak disturbance looks like it will linger into
Tuesday and bring another slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
for areas along and east of a Burnet to San Marcos to Cuero line.
High temps on Tuesday will be in the mid to upper 90s with heat
indices up toward 102-105 for most locations thanks to an increase
in moisture.

By Wednesday the upper level ridge centered over the El Paso area
begins to strengthen and by the weekend the 500 mb high strengthens
further toward 600dm over NW New Mexico. This will keep the region
dry for Wednesday through the weekend. High temps in the mid to upper
90s on Wednesday will increase about a degree or so each day through
Sunday, with triple digits for just about everywhere on Sunday
afternoon. Slightly elevated moisture content will linger through the
weekend as well, with afternoon heat indices ranging from 103 to 107
for most locations during this period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  97  77  94  76 /  20  20  20  20  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  76  96  77  94  76 /  20  20  20  20  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  98  76  95  76 /  10  10  10  10  -
Burnet Muni Airport            75  94  75  93  74 /  20  20  20  20  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           78 104  80 101  79 /  -   -   -   -   -
Georgetown Muni Airport        76  95  76  94  76 /  20  20  20  30  10
Hondo Muni Airport             75 100  77  99  76 /  10  -   10  -   -
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  97  76  95  76 /  20  10  10  20  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  96  78  96  77 /  20  10  10  30  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       77  99  78  97  77 /  10  10  10  10  -
Stinson Muni Airport           76 100  78  97  78 /  10  -   10  10  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Treadway
Long-Term...BMW