059
FXUS64 KEWX 141123
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

Have updated the Flood Watch to include totals of 2 to 5 inches with
isolated totals of 7 to 9 inches given the trends and also the latest
short term models becoming more aggressive with totals even through
tonight with possible additional rejuvenated rounds of activity with
the pesky MCV slowly moving northward.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The latest observational, satellite, and radar trends indicate two
MCVs nearby. One is located over Mexico hugging the Rio Grande while
another is west of the Waco area. The MCV closer to Waco will be
expected to move farther away and becomes less of an influence to our
region today. However, the other MCV along the Rio Grande is now
indicated by the latest CAMs to gradually lift northwards toward the
Southern Edwards Plateau and Sonora region. Expect for the greatest
rain and storm activity to remain most focused across our western
areas during the overnight into early this morning with the MCV.
However, recent runs of the short term CAM guidance also indicates
that the MCV likely will help to rejuvenate additional rain and
storm activity, especially during the peak daytime heating from late
morning through early evening across the Hill Country and Southern
Edwards Plateau. While the 00Z HRRR run was the most aggressive and
concerning with this solution, it is not alone on this idea. Locally
heavy rainfall could be possible where a quick couple of inches may
be possible in a short period of time and this would extend and
exacerbate any flooding concerns over already saturated areas. With
these concerns, we`ll elect to extend the Flood Watch until 9 pm
tonight for the most saturated and recently flooded portions of the
Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and across Travis/Williamson
counties. Where rain has been a bit more sparse farther south along
I-35, we`ll drop a few counties from the watch, including Bexar
County.

Activity could extend into tonight before guidance shows a fading
signal for activity from the overnight into Tuesday morning. Enough
moisture lingers into Tuesday afternoon where isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms may develop across the area with the
help from daytime heating. Guidance is much less active on Tuesday
and shows activity remaining diurnal and ending entering Tuesday
night.

The daytime highs remain slightly below average from the upper 80s
into the mid 90s under partly clear to overcast conditions while
overnight lows remain warm and humid in the low to mid 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 1259 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

A drier weather pattern establishes mid to late next week with the
influence of ridging nudging westward into the area from the Gulf
waters. Most areas should remain rain free outside from perhaps a
stray to isolated shower or storm cell with the onshore flow and/or
sea breeze. Best chance of this would be Thursday in the coastal
plains. With the decrease in overall cloud cover and slightly
stronger 500 mb heights, expect for a slight uptick in the daytime
highs through the second half of the week and into the weekend.

Right now, rain chances remain out of the forecast, but we`ll also
monitor for the possible development of a tropical disturbance or
inverted trough following behind in the wake of the upper level
ridging that nudges to our area. This feature may slowly advance
westward along/parallel to the northern Gulf coast towards and
through the weekend. We continue to monitor to see if this feature
gains additional model support within the coming forecast cycles.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon Jul 14 2025

The primary concern will be the continued potential of heavy rain
and thunderstorms across South-Central Texas, especially across the
Edwards Plateau and the Hill Country. The greatest probability for
flight impacts at the terminals will be around KDRT this morning but
there are chances into the I-35 terminals for activity (KAUS, KSAT,
and KSSF) later today, primarily during the afternoon. Confidence on
placement and timing, however, is low. Otherwise, anticipate a mix
from IFR to VFR flight conditions across the region this morning.
VFR conditions likely return later this afternoon before MVFR
conditions re-establish at least at the I-35 terminals overnight
tonight into early Tuesday morning.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              92  75  94  75 /  20  20  10   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  92  75  93  74 /  20  10  10   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     93  75  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
Burnet Muni Airport            89  73  90  73 /  30  20  10   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           91  76  93  77 /  50  30  20  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        91  74  93  73 /  30  10  10   0
Hondo Muni Airport             91  75  93  75 /  30  20  20  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        92  74  94  74 /  20  10  10   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  75  93  75 /  30  10  20   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       92  76  94  76 /  30  20  20  10
Stinson Muni Airport           94  76  96  76 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for Bandera-Blanco-Burnet-Edwards-
Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Llano-Real-Travis-Uvalde-Val Verde-
Williamson.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...Brady