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000
FXUS64 KEWX 242020 CCA
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
320 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 129 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Not much to talk about in the short term other than the heat. The
center of the upper level ridge is located this afternoon across the
ArkLaTex. The ridge will be the main feature in the short term.
This, along with a generally broad surface ridge will keep
temperatures hot today and tomorrow with dry weather and southerly
winds. Will continue to run with the language in the Special Weather
Statement issued this morning as temperatures will remain just below
Heat Advisory criteria. With the lower Dew Point/RH values this
afternoon heat indices will be close to or even lower than the
ambient temperature. Afternoon high temperatures today will be
close, but should remain just below record values.

Late tonight into tomorrow morning synoptic models are in good
agreement that a weak disturbance will move from east to west from
the Gulf of Mexico into SE Texas. Where this normally may help
enhance seabreeze activity, the atmosphere is very dry so no
precipitation is expected. The one good thing is that the
disturbance may bring a bit more cloudcover and break up the
subsidence from the Ridge allowing for temperatures to be a degree
or two less than today. Overnight lows tonight will be in the low to
mid 70s, but with the drier air pulled in tomorrow by the
disturbance lows Saturday night will drop into the upper 60s and
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 223 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Sunday continues to pick up where the short-term dropped off with
another unseasonably hot day. As mentioned in the short-term
discussion, there could be a subtle increase in low level Gulf
moisture in the eastern counties from the weak mid-level disturbance
that will move into SW TX Saturday. Moisture increases are currently
only expected to result in less mixed out surface dew points and thus
a slight uptick in heat indices. Thus we didn`t want to downplay the
potential hot days going into Monday in regards to the HWO and local
messaging. Based on the forecast trends and the continued drying of
area soil and vegetation, the current thinking is that we`ll continue
to see the Heat Index rise into the low 100`s but fall just shy of
Heat Advisory conditions through early Monday.

Monday could hold the biggest surprise of the period as there is a
weak front expected to push beneath the mid-level ridge anchored over
Srn NM/NW TX by this time. Heat chasing storms cold be in play
should the frontal boundary hold up during mid-day mixing which is a
common thing to happen under this pattern. Should this happen we
might need to be on the lookout for strong downdrafts and DCAPE
values exceeding 1300 J/Kg. Model run-to-run trends have be running
mostly cooler with each run over the past few days, but the trend
appeared to halt in the 12Z run. This is that time period where often
models reverse course and revert back to runs from a few days
further out. Hopefully not, as that would mean a return to high
temps approaching 100 for the metro areas. On the contrary, we should
find ourselves very lucky to find lows in the upper 80s and low 90s
for a MaxT over the Austin and San Antonio areas. A more practical
expectation might be highs in the low to mid 90s or a degree or two
warmer than the current forecast has for Tuesday. Thus we halfway
expect Tuesday and Wednesday will wind up being similar days with
isolated storms, and will hope the optimism of up to 40 percent rain
chances hold together for daytime Monday and Tuesday. In any event,
temps are expected to return to above normals for Thursday and back
to near where they are now for next Friday. A weak disturbance is
depicted by the 12Z runs of the GFS/CMC and to some extent the ECM,
but we`ll want to see better model consistency before offering better
news.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the forecast period
as dry hot air remains over South Central Texas as high pressure
dominates the weather. Winds during the day today will be generally
southerly around 10 to 15 knots, with some gusts out at DRT. Calmer
winds around 5 to 8 knots are expected overnight with some mid and
high level clouds streaming over the state. Winds will peak back up
during the day tomorrow remaining generally southerly.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 636 AM CDT Fri Jun 24 2022

Record high temperatures for:
                     June 24           June 25

Austin Mabry         105(2009)         106(2009)
Austin Bergstrom     104(2009)         107(2009)
San Antonio          102(2009)         103(2012)
Del Rio              106(2018)         106(1994)

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74 103  74 100 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73 101  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72 102  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            73 100  71  99 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 102  76 102 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74 101  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             72 102  72 102 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        72 101  71 100 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   74 102  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       73 100  73 100 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74 102  74 102 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Treadway
Long-Term...Oaks
Aviation...Treadway