622
FXUS64 KEWX 131059
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
459 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Key Messages...

- Cool and dry conditions continue across the region.

Scattered cirrus and light to moderate northerly wind are noted
early this morning across South Central Texas. Brief freezing
temperatures will be seen before sunrise over some of the Hill
Country and southern Edwards Plateau with morning lows in the mid to
upper 30s elsewhere. Surface high pressure moves towards the
Southern Plains this afternoon shifting slightly east tonight into
Tuesday. Cloud cover will decrease a bit this afternoon with cool
high temperatures in the low 50s to low 60s forecast.

Lighter wind from the east to northeast is expected tonight with
increasing cirrus streaming over the area. Lows Monday night into
Tuesday will be slightly colder for the southern Edwards Plateau,
Hill Country and northern portions of the I-35 corridor. Cloud cover
should limit diurnal cooling further south keeping lows again in the
mid to upper 30s. Cloudy and cool conditions continue Tuesday with
widespread highs in the mid to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 135 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

Key Messages...

- Cool mornings with increasingly warmer afternoons through the work
  week.

- Another powerful Arctic cold front will arrive next weekend,
  bringing much cooler temperatures for the start of next week. The
  threat for any wintry precipitation is still a major unknown and
  confidence is very low at this distance.

After a pleasant Sunday, temperatures will be cooler again on Monday
with highs in the 50s rather than 60s like we saw Sunday. The upper
level pattern will remain mostly zonal through this week with just
one shot at some rainfall arriving Wednesday with a subtle and rather
weak inverted trough moving from west to east across northern Mexico
and then into the Gulf of Mexico Wednesday. The ECMWF and Canadian
model guidance continue to be rather aggressive with precip
generation and the NBM seems to have jumped on board with this trend.
The latest 00Z GFS remains on the weaker side with this disturbance,
however, it does still send some showers into our southern and
eastern zones Wednesday morning through the afternoon hours. This is
not expected to result in widespread measurable rainfall, but some
spots could pick up a quick 1/10th to 1/4 inch of rain.

Towards late week, our attention will turn northward as our next
Arctic cold front will dive southward. Thursday and Friday will be
the warmest days of the week with highs in the 60s and lower 70s on
Friday. Some showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder will be possible
along and ahead of the front as it plows through South Central Texas
sometime Saturday. Temperatures will fall from the 60s/70s for highs
to to 40s/50s for highs Sunday and Monday. Widespread hard freezes
are likely beginning Saturday night and continuing through the
remainder of the long term. With regard to precipitation behind this
front, confidence is low and it is simply too far out at this time to
determine whether any wintry precip could develop.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 457 AM CST Mon Jan 13 2025

VFR flight conditions are expected over the next 24 to 30 hours. Mid
to high clouds will filter in and out through the period with the
greatest areal coverage after 00Z Tuesday. North wind at I-35
terminals will shift from the northeast this afternoon around 10-12
knots before decreasing in the evening. Wind remains lighter at KDRT
becoming southeasterly during the afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              55  36  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  56  34  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     57  36  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            53  32  55  40 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  35  59  43 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        53  32  56  41 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             59  36  58  42 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        56  35  57  42 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   56  35  56  42 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       57  38  57  44 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           58  38  58  45 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...27
Long-Term...MMM
Aviation...27