010
FXUS64 KEWX 231305
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
805 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 804 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Stable air has moved across much of South Central Texas this morning
behind the overnight mesoscale convective system, which has since
weakened into areas of isolated light showers moving out of the
Coastal Plains. A small wake low developed in the vicinity of San
Marcos and New Braunfels and has been moving towards the southeast
behind the outgoing shower activity, producing locally gusty winds up
to about 35-40 mph in portions of Gonzales County and likely DeWitt
County later this morning. As of 8 AM, dew points in the upper 50s
to mid 60s were being reported along and west of the I-35 corridor.
Dew points were adjusted downwards in the forecast for the afternoon
to account for these convectively-induced changes. Forecast high
temperatures were revised a few degrees down to account for this
morning`s cooling, though the forecast still calls for highs in the
mid to upper 90s for most with 100s along the Rio Grande.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Short Term...

Key Message:

- Dry for the most part but the heat continues with elevated heat
index values through the short term period.

A line of strong thunderstorms is moving across the western and
northern parts of the Hill Country as of 130 AM CDT. Some of these
storms are producing small hail, strong winds, and localized heavy
rain. The line of storms is forecasted to push to the southeast into
portions of the I-35 corridor including the Austin and San Antonio
metro areas and the coastal plains through the rest of the overnight
period. The shower and storm activity should come to an end by 7 AM
CDT Friday. Can`t totally rule out an isolated shower or two around
the coastal plains between 7 and 9 AM CDT based on a few hires
models. Otherwise, Friday looks dry for the most part with highs in
mid to upper 90s across the Hill Country to 100 and up to 104 along
the Rio Grande. Heat index values are likely to range from 100 to
107 across the I-35 corridor, coastal plains, and Rio Grande for
several hours this afternoon.

Later this evening, a mid level disturbance moving across central
Texas into Val Verde County could get an isolated storm or two going
over parts of Val Verde County. No severe weather is anticipated at
this time. Overnight lows are forecasted to range from the lower 70s
to upper 70s areawide.

Cloudy skies are in store for most areas on Saturday morning,
however, clouds break late morning for partly cloudy skies during
the afternoon. Saturday`s highs are anticipated to reach the mid to
upper 90s across most locations with 100 to 104 across the southern
Edwards Plateau and the Rio Grande. Heat Index values to range from
the 100 to 107 across most places and up to 109 along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 158 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

Key Messages:

- 30-60% chance of showers and storms Monday afternoon and night
- A few strong storms and isolated pockets of heavy rainfall
  possible Monday afternoon and night.
- Temperatures trending closer to seasonal normals Tuesday through
  Thursday with rain chances in the forecast

Warm conditions continue into Sunday. The flow aloft becomes
southwesterly Sunday into Monday ahead of a dampening shortwave.
An embedded disturbance in this flow will allow for a low chance
(10-30%) of showers and storms late Sunday afternoon through Sunday
night across the region, mainly closer to the Rio Grande and across
the northern Hill Country and Central Texas.

There is a signal in several global ensembles of scattered showers
and storms developing to the north of the area on Monday, along an
frontal boundary, and moving into northern portions of the I-35
corridor and Hill Country Monday afternoon and southward into the
remainder of the area Monday night. A few stronger storms will be
possible, along with pockets of heavy rainfall. While most of this
will be welcome rainfall across the drought stricken region, some
pockets of higher rainfall rates could lead to some minor flooding
issues.

The upper level pattern becomes more complicated Tuesday through
Thursday, leading to less certainty on coverage and timing of
additional opportunities for showers and storms. Temperatures are
forecast to trend closer to averages for this time of year Tuesday
through Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 645 AM CDT Fri May 23 2025

VFR conditions are expected for the area terminals for most of the
period. There could be an hour or two of MVFR cigs for KAUS and KSAT
between 12z and 15z but confidence is low. Otherwise, southerly winds
7 to 13 knots with occasional wind gusts up to 23 knots mainly late
morning through early evening. MVFR cigs return overnight.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  96  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     96  74  98  76 /  10   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            94  73  96  74 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          101  78 102  79 /   0  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        95  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             97  73 100  75 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  73  98  76 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   95  76  96  77 /  10   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       96  75  99  77 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  76  99  78 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Tran
Long-Term...76
Aviation...17