Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 030835

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
335 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023


(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

The MCS that developed Friday evening overachieved and made it all
the way through San Antonio. The complex has rapidly decayed since,
however a wake low on the back edge of what is left of the
stratiform rain may continue to produce some strong wind gusts over
the next hour. Otherwise, the remainder of the morning into the
early afternoon should remain dry once what is left of the decaying
MCS dissipates.

The upper level pattern features a subtropical jet stream across
northern Mexico and upper level low over the Panhandle lifting into
the Rockies, while in the lower levels the dryline will remain
across West Texas and the Big Bend. Convection is expected to
initiate again this afternoon upstream of the area. There should be
enough recovery of the atmosphere from the MCS yesterday evening and
early this morning, combined with upper level impulses in the flow
aloft, to allow upstream convection to make it into the area later
today. Many CAMs bring upstream showers and storms into northern and
western areas by late afternoon or early evening, but differ on exact
placement and how organized the storms become. There exists the
possibility of some storms becoming strong to severe, with SPC
currently placing most areas near and west of the I-35 corridor in a
Level 1 of 5 risk for severe storms. Locally heavy rainfall is also
possible, especially west of I-35 this evening, where HREF
probability matched mean is indicating some pockets of 2-4" west and
southwest of San Antonio. WPC currently has the western half of the
area in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall that could lead to
flooding. Convection should eventually weaken overnight and into
early Sunday morning.

Shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for Sunday,
developing late morning through the northern Hill Country and
Central Texas, and expanding southwest through the afternoon. There
should be less organization of the scattered storms, however a few
pockets of heavy rainfall are possible. Central and eastern areas on
Sunday are in a Level 1 of 4 risk of excessive rainfall that could
lead to flooding.


(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 224 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

With the highest chance of storms and heavy rain forecast in the
short term to be over the Rio Grande Plains, it is assumed that the
atmosphere will be worked over more thoroughly over this region while
Central Texas would not have experience such a widespread convective
event. Thus the model signals for best rain chances are for the NE
half of the forecast areas for Sunday night into Tuesday. There is
also a weak signal for height aloft to build over West TX by Tuesday,
which would set Central TX up for a round or two of NW flow aloft
convection. This would favor more nocturnal convection, but we`ll
stick with the climatology and the guidance blends highlighting the
afternoons and evening for Tuesday. While shortwave ridging over
South Central TX becomes as possibility by midweek, the consensus of
models keep it weak enough, and enough of a NW flow pattern over the
area to keep mentionable PoPs through the extended, although only
isolated. For this reason, we`d think that the Marginal Risk of
excessive rainfall would taper off by then. Our western counties may
be very saturated and vulnerable to flooding later into the week
should the early period QPF depictions verify or exceed projections.
With a few periods of relatively lower PoPs stringing together late
next week, we could see temperatures begin to trend to more summer-
like by next weekend.


(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1236 AM CDT Sat Jun 3 2023

TSRAs are clearing east if SAT/SSF. The complex is forecast to
weaken and eventually dissipated over the next hour or two. Mainly
VFR conditions overnight and Saturday, with the exception of a period
over MVFR stratus west of SAT to DRT developing overnight and
dissipating mid morning Saturday, as well as any reduction in
ceilings and visibilities in SHRA/TSRA activity late Saturday
afternoon and evening.


Austin Camp Mabry              70  89  66  87 /  30  50  30  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  68  90  65  86 /  30  50  30  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     68  89  66  86 /  40  50  30  60
Burnet Muni Airport            67  86  65  83 /  30  70  30  60
Del Rio Intl Airport           68  90  70  90 /  60  10  10  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        68  89  65  84 /  30  70  30  60
Hondo Muni Airport             67  89  66  87 /  60  30  20  40
San Marcos Muni Airport        68  89  65  85 /  30  50  30  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  87  67  84 /  20  60  40  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       69  89  66  86 /  50  40  30  50
Stinson Muni Airport           70  89  68  87 /  50  40  20  50




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