Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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226
FXUS64 KEWX 261653
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1153 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

A weak surface front stalls across portions of the Hill Country
entering today. The pressure gradient has relaxed as a result of
this boundary and will result in very light winds over the region
through today, with variable/shifting directions. Some slightly
drier dew points are forecast to reach near the I-35 corridor as
well. The muggiest dew points above 65 degrees are located to the
east of the I-35 corridor into the coastal plains. This will be
where any fog and very low stratus is favored to develop this
morning and again into Sunday morning. Latest model probabilities
are showing a stronger signal of dense fog across our southeastern
row or two of counties this morning in comparison to yesterday
morning. Any regions of fog and low stratus should erode by late
morning today and Sunday. Mid-level clouds may be a little more
prevalent today from the afternoon into the evening, otherwise
expect for mostly sunny skies to trend.

Well above average temperatures and a continued lack of rainfall
will remain the rest of the story for South-Central Texas as mid-
level ridging will remain in control and centered over the Baja
California peninsula to our west. The light to modest south to
southeasterly flow resumes Sunday as our nearby front lifts/fizzles
out and surface high pressure builds more into the Southeastern
CONUS and the northeastern Gulf of Mexico. The afternoon highs
continue to top out from the mid to upper 80s to the low 90s and
will challenge the daily record highs at the climate sites. The
overnight lows range from the upper 50s to near 60 in the Hill
Country to the upper 60s and near 70 degrees across the coastal
plains.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 222 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

The subtropical ridge axis will initially be centered over
northwestern Mexico early next week. Subsidence associated with this
area of high pressure will keep our weather dry along with above
normal high temperatures for the early portion of next week. The
subtropical ridge axis is expected to be nudged eastward by an upper
level trough axis as we head through Tuesday. The center of the
subtropical high is expected to be centered over the southeastern
U.S. by early Wednesday. Meanwhile, surface low pressure develops
over eastern Colorado into the central plains states leading to a
tightening pressure gradient. As a result, gusty south winds develop
across all of south central Texas on Tuesday into Wednesday. The
surface pressure gradient will be disrupted Wednesday night into
early Thursday as a cold front drops southward into the northern half
of Texas. The latest round of the medium range models are showing
some better agreement with regard to the southward movement of the
front and manage to show the front moving into the Hill Country to
near Austin Thursday afternoon. The front may continue to slowly sag
southward Thursday night, but with the center of the surface high
behind the front staying well to our north, the front may struggle to
reach the coastal plains by Friday morning. We do expect a slight
cooling trend to develop on Thursday into Thursday night as the front
sags southward. However, temperatures behind the front will still
remain above normal for this time of year. With quasi-zonal flow over
the Rockies emerging on Friday, lee-side surface troughing quickly
develops, leading to a return of south to southeasterly surface winds
over our region by late Friday.

As for rain chances during the mid to late week period, we will keep
a low chance in the forecast for locations along and east of a Llano
to New Braunfels to Cuero line on Wednesday given southwest flow
aloft and an upper jet moving in from the west. Upper dynamics don`t
look overly impressive on Thursday, but with some weak forcing along
the front, we`ll keep a 20-40% chance of rain for all areas, except
out west along the Rio Grande. With an upper trough axis well to our
west, southwesterly flow aloft remains intact on Friday. We will keep
a low chance (mainly 20-30%) for rain in the forecast, which is a
little below the NBM numbers.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1151 AM CDT Sat Oct 26 2024

Mostly clear skies are expected through tonight with light and
variable surface winds around 5 knots or less. Low stratus and areas
of fog are expected again late tonight into Sunday morning; however,
models favor locations just east of the I-35 terminals, namely SAT
and SSF. Have continued to only mention SCT low ceilings at these
locations but will need to monitor trends the next few updates for
how far west the stratus will make it. DRT will remain VFR through
the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              91  67  91  64 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  91  64  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     91  66  91  63 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            87  64  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           90  65  92  64 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        89  63  90  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             90  63  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        91  64  90  61 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   91  66  91  62 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       90  67  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           92  67  91  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Brady
Long-Term...Platt
Aviation...27