710
FXUS64 KEWX 080506
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1106 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

Key Messages...

- Cold weather continues tonight through Wednesday night but a bit
warmer than previous forecasted

- There is a slight of wintry mix late Wednesday night into Early
Thursday morning across portions of the southern Edwards Plateau and
western Hill Country.

.Short Term...

Cold conditions with plenty of sunshine over most locations for the
rest of today with highs in the mid 40s to mid 50s. Some high clouds
are moving across the Hill Country and coastal plains in addition to
low moisture increasing and pulling over some areas of the coastal
plains.

Increased moisture continues to be pulled from the coastal plains
into the local area tonight through Wednesday morning. Overnight
lows are cold but a bit warmer than previous forecast cycles ranging
from the mid 20s to mid 30s.

The day starts cold and cloudy on Wednesday with highs in the lower
to mid 40s with cloudy skies over most areas. By Wednesday evening
into early Thursday morning, an upper level low pressure system
moving across Baja California and northwest Mexico pushes to the
southeast sending increased elevated moisture across South Central
Texas. At the surface, temperatures are forecast to drop to the
upper 20s and lower 30s with a slight chance for a wintry mix and
cold rain over parts of the southern Edwards Plateau and Hill
Country. Minor impacts are expected for this period with emphasis on
elevated surfaces and higher elevations of these areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 139 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

There are big changes in the forecast this afternoon. Models have
trended slower with the movement of the upper low from Mexico. This
will allow more warm air to move into the area around the north side
of a low along the coast. The chances for significant icing have
decreased. Precipitation chances will begin Thursday morning and
increase during the afternoon remaining high through the evening. A
mix of rain and freezing rain will be possible over the Edwards
Plateau and western Hill Country Thursday morning. There is a chance
for some light ice accumulation on elevated surfaces including
bridges and overpasses. By around noon precip should turn over to
only rain. As the upper trough moves across the region Friday
morning, there is a chance the precip turns to snow or a rain/snow
mix with little or no snow accumulation. The rest of the area will
get only rain through the entire event. Rainfall totals of one inch
are possible along and southeast of I-35 by noon Friday. Friday
afternoon dry weather will return. Another shot of cold air will move
in for Saturday morning and nearly all of the area will drop to
freezing. Beyond that temperatures will warm, but remain below
normal. Saturday will be the last day with freezing temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1100 PM CST Tue Jan 7 2025

VFR conditions are forecast for all terminals through the period.
Northerly winds 8 to 12 knots are expected for tonight into tomorrow
until 00Z for KAUS and KSAT. After 00Z winds become variable as a
upper level cloud deck approaches the sites. For KSSF and KSAT
ceilings become broken at 8000ft as the cloud deck reaches the
sites tonight. Ceilings look to drop to low end VFR and eventually
MVFR starting at 06Z for KSAT and KSSF and continue just outside the
forecast period for KSAT and KSSF as the next weather system moves
into the area. There also is a 50% chance of rain at the tail end
around 11Z of this forecast period that will affect all sites except
KDRT. KDRT will continue to have VFR conditions all throughout the
period.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              29  45  34  42 /   0   0  20  90
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  29  44  34  42 /   0   0  10  90
New Braunfels Muni Airport     31  44  34  43 /   0   0  10  90
Burnet Muni Airport            26  43  31  39 /   0   0  20  80
Del Rio Intl Airport           31  47  35  45 /   0   0  20  60
Georgetown Muni Airport        27  44  32  40 /   0   0  20  90
Hondo Muni Airport             31  44  35  42 /   0   0  10  80
San Marcos Muni Airport        30  43  33  42 /   0   0  10  90
La Grange - Fayette Regional   30  44  34  45 /   0   0  10  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       33  43  36  42 /   0   0  10  90
Stinson Muni Airport           35  44  36  43 /   0   0  10  90

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...17
Long-Term...05
Aviation...CJM