591
FXUS64 KEWX 160516
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1216 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Sunday night)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Wind Advisory in effect for the western 2/3 of the area until 7 pm.

- Red Flag Warning in effect for the entire area until 9 pm.

The very strong and gusty winds seen this afternoon will drop in
speed and gustiness with sunset, and then further relax overnight as
the pressure gradient decreases across Texas. Winds are on track to
drop below Wind Advisory criteria at 7 pm, followed by an end of Red
Flag conditions after 9 pm. Otherwise, expect mostly clear skies and
cool conditions across the area, with Sunday morning lows in the 40s.

Low dew points and relative humidity will remain across the Rio
Grande Plains and the western Edwards Plateau through Sunday and
Sunday night, along with moderate and gusty west-northwest winds
Sunday afternoon. That combination will produce elevated to near
critical fire weather conditions, but just below levels for a Red
Flag Warning. Given the conditions occurring this afternoon, we will
hold of issuing a Fire Weather Watch and opt for the overnight shift
to likely issue a lower level Fire Danger Statement for Sunday,
including determining how far east to extend it given overnight RH
recovery.

High pressure will bring pleasant conditions on Sunday with
afternoon highs from the mid-70s to lower 80s. Sunday night will be
mostly clear and cool again, with lows in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Saturday)
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Critical fire weather Monday and Wednesday, otherwise elevated to
  near critical fire weather through the middle of next week

Southerly flow will return Monday and continue through Tuesday. The
southerly winds will bring warmer, moister air to our CWA.
Temperatures will climb to well above normal by Tuesday with highs in
the 80s and 90s. Another Pacific front will move across our area
early Wednesday. Ample mixing will create a breezy to windy west to
northwest flow with very dry air. Cooler, closer to average
temperatures will return Thursday and Friday. Surface high pressure
will settle over our area Thursday, then shift off to the east
Friday with southerly flow returning leading to a warming and
moistening trend into next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1216 AM CDT Sun Mar 16 2025

VFR flying conditions prevail. However, any fires may create smoke
that may reduce CIGs/VSBYs. Northwesterly winds will stabilize
overnight, then mixing may cause breezy/gusty winds on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 233 PM CDT Sat Mar 15 2025

Key Messages:

- Red Flag Warning remains in effect until 9pm for all of South
  Central Texas

- Rounds of critical to near critical fire conditions continue
  through the middle of next week

Westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph with gusts to 45 mph and minimum
humidities of 10%-15% will continue into this evening. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect.

Minimum humidity values will remain low for most of the area Sunday
through the middle of next week. Strong winds will return Monday
through Wednesday resulting in near critical to critical fire
weather conditions. The greatest impacts will be Monday and
Wednesday when the strongest winds and lowest minimum humidities are
expected. Lighter winds are expected Thursday, then southerly winds
bring increased moisture Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              48  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  44  82  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     46  85  55  86 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            45  82  56  84 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           48  88  57  93 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  82  57  85 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             43  84  52  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        44  83  55  85 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   45  82  56  82 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       48  83  56  85 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           46  85  56  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...04
Long-Term...18
Aviation...04