Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 021855
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Weakness in the ridge and the piece of vorticity that brought storms
to the Trans Pecos and Val Verde county last night/early this
morning has since dissipated. The remnant MCV has taken a dive
southwestward further into Mexico and our CWA look to remain rain
free for the remainder of the short term. There is a slim chance
that storms could redevelop over the Del Burros/Trans Pecos and
attempt to make it into western Val Verde county late this afternoon
but latest high resolution guidance has backed off on any convection
later today. Took mention of slight chances for storms out of the
forecast for this reason.

Subtropical ridge builds and expands over the region and will be the
dominant feature driving our weather pattern. While temperatures
will be on the increase for late this week, dewpoints will be well
mixed at the surface and should keep heat indices from climbing to
advisory criteria. Temperatures will run in the upper 90s both today
and tomorrow with a few locations reaching the century mark out
along the Rio Grande.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
The upper level ridge will continue to dominate the weather through
the July 4th weekend. With the ridge extending well into the Central
Plains afternoon highs will climb to near 100 degrees for most areas,
including the I-35 corridor. The Rio Grande Plains will see highs
103-105 for the Saturday through Monday time frame. This could also
produce the first 100 degree day at San Antonio for 2020. The ridge
will also keep the weather dry due to sinking air (subsidence) across
South Central Texas.

A weak upper level low across the Southeast U.S. will help weaken
the ridge and push it back across the Desert Southwest for the start
of next week. This will result in northerly flow aloft and help
funnel a disturbance south across Texas during the day on Monday. Due
to the moist environment in place the added lift of the disturbance
along with daytime heating could spark off some isolated showers and
thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. The upper level
low mentioned above will strengthen slightly and move north across
Arkansas on Tuesday. It will interact with increased moisture and
could produce shower and thunderstorm activity across East Texas,
some of which could impact the HWY 77 corridor Tuesday afternoon from
Elgin to Bastrop to Gonzales and Cuero and points east. The ridge
builds back in on Wednesday cutting off rain chances for the middle
and end of next week.

Heat index values each day through the holiday weekend and into next
week will range from 99 to 105 so if you are out and about
celebrating be sure to drink plenty of water, wear light colored
clothing, and hang out in the shade.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              96  74  99  74 100 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  95  73  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     95  75  97  72  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            95  71  98  72 100 /  10   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  75  99  76 104 /  20  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        97  73 100  74 101 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             98  73  98  72 102 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        96  73  97  71 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   97  76  97  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       97  75  98  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  74  98  73 100 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...EWilliams
Long-Term...Treadway
Decision Support...KCW


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