Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
248 FXUS64 KEWX 011709 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 1209 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 ...New LONG TERM, AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low rain chances (20-40%) for the Hill Country and along and east of Hwy 281 Saturday as another cold front moves through the region. - Dry weather with a slow warming trend continues into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1214 AM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A shortwave trough diving southward across the Edwards Plateau into South Texas and an attendant cold front are contributing to the development of isolated to scattered showers and storms over the eastern half of the CWA this afternoon. Activity in the morning around the Austin area was mostly light and elevated, aided by strong divergence aloft and an elevated moist layer beneath steep mid-level lapse rates. However, with some added destabilization brought upon by daytime heating ahead of the approaching front, a shift to more surface-based showers and isolated storms is expected mainly over the Coastal Plains later in the afternoon and early evening before stable air spreads from the north and shuts off rain chances tonight. Overall rain totals should remain on the lighter side, from a trace to about 1/4 inch. The cooler continental airmass ushered in by Saturday`s weak cold front will stick around South-Central Texas for about one more day. A light north wind will make for a crisp and dry night tonight. Morning lows range from the low 40s in the Hill Country to around 45 to 50 for the remainder of South-Central Texas. That deep-layer dry air will pave the way for a mostly cloudless and seasonably warm Sunday afternoon with highs in the 70s. The primary axis of surface high pressure slides a little more to the east Sunday, so the coolest spots Sunday night into Monday morning may extend over the Coastal Plains with lows in the low to mid 40s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Saturday) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 An upper-level ridge slides east across Texas Monday. Surface high pressure repositions over the southeastern US but keeps a foot in our area. With persistent zonal flow aloft, this pattern is indicative of dry rinse-and-repeat weather for the week ahead. A weak southerly to southeasterly wind at the low levels reestablishes by Monday while the jet stream remains well to our north, leading to a gradual warming trend throughout the week. Widespread highs in the 80s emerge by midweek, and the latest NBM indicates a 50-80 percent chance of highs above 90 over the Rio Grande Plains and Winter Garden by Saturday. Expect lows to also rise slowly to the mid 50s and low 60s by the end of the week. There are some slight ensemble signals that a marginally more wavy jet stream towards the weekend could lead to a brief changeup in airmass for our area, but otherwise expect ample sunshine and warm weather for the next week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 An upper level disturbance has been producing elevated SHRA activity along and north of a AQO-AUS-3T5 line through the morning hours. This forcing will also expand southeast through the afternoon and evening, and along with a cold front could provide for some deeper convection producing isolated TSRA activity into the Coastal Plains, east and southeast of SAT, late afternoon and evening. Activity should move east of the region after 03Z. Mainly VFR conditions with higher bases to this SHRA activity. However, stratus did develop early this morning through portions of the Hill Country and into the SAT area, which is producing MVFR ceilings. Ceilings are forecast to become VFR across this region in the afternoon. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sat Nov 1 2025 A Rangeland Fire Danger statement remains in effect for Kinney, Maverick, and Val Verde counties until 6 PM CDT today. North- northwesterly winds are picking up along the Rio Grande with Del Rio recently reporting sustained winds of 20 mph as a front pushes through. Post-frontal winds are expected to spread south along the Rio Grande, reaching 10 to 20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. Coupled with relative humidity values near 20 percent and dry fuels, this is expected to produce near-critical fire weather conditions. Good moisture recovery and weaker winds in the evening are expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 48 73 49 78 / 10 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 46 73 45 78 / 10 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 48 74 46 77 / 10 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 45 71 47 76 / 10 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 52 77 50 81 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 45 71 46 77 / 10 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 48 75 46 78 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 47 74 45 79 / 10 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 47 72 44 77 / 10 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 50 74 49 77 / 10 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 52 75 49 78 / 10 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Tran LONG TERM....Tran AVIATION...76