Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 272334
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
634 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Latest synoptic setup across the region depicts a surface high over
the Hill Country, a surface cold front now pushing through all of
South Texas, and very dry air aloft with light easterly flow less
than 10 kts at 500mb. This has led to clear skies with a light ENE
breeze of 5-15 mph so far today. Temperatures should climb to the
lower and perhaps middle 90s once again, but humidity will be the
main story, or lack thereof. Late September/early October can be
unforgiving in our neck of the woods with heat and humidity
typically overstaying its welcome into the month of October.
However, with an early Fall cold front, we have managed to grab
hold of those cool mornings and it doesn`t look like the humidity
or moisture will return anytime soon. In fact, cool mornings are
likely to continue into the long term forecast period as well.
Expect temperatures to dip from perhaps as low as the upper 40s over
the Hill Country to the lower 60s on Wednesday morning. More of the
same can be expected Thursday morning as cool, dry air takes hold
each morning. Afternoons will be sunny and dry with highs in the
upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 218 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

Benign weather with low humidity levels will persist through the
rest of the workweek and into the upcoming weekend as weak mid to
upper level ridging remains in tact with light east-northeasterly
winds. Afternoons will continue to trend near to slightly above
average while lows trend cooler with the overnight lows running a
little below average. Like seen this morning, low-lying drainage
valleys could see the lows dip into the upper 40s at times this
week. No rain is expected into the weekend as cloud cover will be
hard to come by as well given the dry airmass that remains atop
the region.

A weather feature of interest that we may need to keep an eye on
into early next week will be a tropical wave across the Eastern
Pacific that currently has a high (70 percent) chance from the
National Hurricane Center of developing into a tropical cyclone
within the next 5 days. Majority of the guidance has this system
advancing westward away from Mexico but a couple of the recent
deterministic GFS runs along with a small cluster of the GFS
ensembles indicate that the storm could swing into Mexico before
quickly dissipating as it advances inland. This is an unlikely
solution as an upper level trough moving into the central plains
will likely not dig far enough south to pick this system up and
bring it northward. However, if this solution is able to verify
then some limited moisture (primarily cloud cover) may possibly
advance into the region from the west for early next week. We`ll
keep the cool mornings and warm afternoons along with rain free
conditions in the forecast through early next week for now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM CDT Tue Sep 27 2022

VFR conditions under mostly clear skies through the TAF period. Winds
will become calm to variable at less than 5KT after sunset. E to SE
wind around 5-10KT is forecast to develop after 15Z Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  92  60  91 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  52  92  54  91 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     58  92  57  92 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            57  91  56  90 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           60  88  61  89 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        58  91  58  90 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             58  91  56  93 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        57  91  56  91 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   59  93  57  90 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       60  92  60  92 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           61  92  61  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

Short-Term...Morris
Long-Term...Brady
Aviation...76


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