Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 021721
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1221 PM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions currently across all sites. Slim chance for storms
west of DRT this afternoon/evening but unlikely so left any mention
out. MVFR ceiling looks to build in overnight most likely only for
the San Antonio sites. AUS may need to be amended for MVFR ceilings
tonight in a later TAF package. No other hazards expected through the
remainder of the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 624 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

AVIATION...
Rain over the Hill Country to along the Escarpment is dissipating
and no impacts are expected at the I-35 sites. Rain over Val Verde
County will dissipate by late morning and have -RA/VCSH at KDRT
through 16Z. There could be some redevelopment late this afternoon
into early evening, however, chances are too low to mention at this
time. Will monitor model and radar trends for possible updates to
mention. MVFR CIGs lift and mix to VFR by midday. MVFR CIGs return
overnight. Except for a W-NW wind up to 10 KTs at KDRT early this
morning, S to SE winds less than 10 KTs increase to 10 to 15 KTs with
a few gusts to 25 KTs midday through evening, then decrease to less
than 10 KTs tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 351 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Area of rain with isolated showers and thunderstorms continues over
the Hill Country and Escarpment west to Val Verde County and the
Serranias del Burro. An MCV has developed near Langtry. Expect the
precipitation to gradually dissipate early this morning.

The Subtropical Ridge will become more dominant over South Central
Texas with increasing subsidence, capping warm mid level
temperatures, and decreasing moisture aloft keeping rain out of the
forecast. However, with the development of the MCV have introduced
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms for Val Verde county
late this afternoon into early evening. The main threats are locally
heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds.

While high temperatures trend upward with more areas near or higher
than 100 degrees, more efficient mixing of dewpoints make for less
elevated afternoon heat index values. Expect maximum afternoon heat
index values of 100 to 106 today and 98 to 103 on Friday, except
lower in the Hill Country.

LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Conditions should continue to gradually dry over the holiday weekend
and allow high temps to climb another degree or two. There is a
chance SAT could see the first 100 degree day of the season in the
Friday through Sunday window, but this forecast keeps them just shy.
The upper ridge maintains a good hold over the weather through the
weekend as the upper ridge axis extends from the SWrn US into the
Central Plains. By Monday, the ridge presence over the high plains
weakens and a mid-level disturbance is shown in the GFS to drop south
into TX Monday into Monday night. The ECM shows a more conservative
feature that takes a more easterly track and leaves Central TX mostly
dry. Pooled moisture over East TX could backdoor its way into the
eastern counties on Tuesday. All of these Monday through Tuesday
scenarios are low confidence for now and will be handled with mostly
slight chance PoPs. The weakening of the upper ridge should translate
to a few more clouds again and some easing of the heat and heat index
values for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  99  74  99  76 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  73  97  72  98  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     75  97  72  98  73 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            71  98  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           75  99  76 103  78 /  10   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73 100  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             73  98  72 100  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        73  97  71  99  73 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  97  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  98  74  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           74  98  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...EWilliams
Long-Term...Treadway
Decision Support...KCW



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