Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 232342
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
642 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 636 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Have inserted mentions of patchy fog across the far eastern CWA in
the evening update. Latest GOES satellite imagery, as well as RAP
mesoanalyses, indicate a pocket of 1.3"+ precipitable water values
pooled along and just north of the Interstate 10 corridor from
Houston to near La Grange. Latest forecast soundings sampled from
this region depict a narrow band of saturation and attendant fog
formation near daybreak tomorrow morning as surface temps reach their
diurnal minimum. Have thus accounted for this in the period`s
forecast across portions of the Coastal Plains. Any pockets of fog
will quickly mix out following sunrise tomorrow morning.

Quigley

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 505 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Have updated the near term weather grids across the far southeastern
CWA given development of isolated thundershowers in the Coastal
Plains over the last 30-45 minutes. This activity is likely a
byproduct of today`s slightly weaker surface high pressure,
convergence along the sea breeze, and perhaps a very weak mid-upper
level perturbation that`s evident in afternoon water vapor imagery
pivoting northward out of southern Texas. Activity should taper after
sunset, giving way to mostly clear skies tonight.

Quigley

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Ridging overhead will gradually weaken through the short term, with
H5 heights falling from 592 dm to 588 dm by 12Z Sunday. Visible
satellite imagery depicts a somewhat denser cu field today across
much of the region, but with ample sunshine and soils continuing to
dry back out we`ll see another warmer than normal afternoon as highs
will top out in the 90s for most locations, with a few spots
sneaking into the triple digits near and east of I-35, potentially
for the final time in 2022.

Saturday, there is a low chance for a couple isolated showers ans
perhaps a rumble of thunder or two across our southern counties, but
most areas will remain dry. With the weakening of the ridge and some
slightly higher dew points in the afternoon, temperatures tomorrow
should be a couple degrees cooler relative to today but still warmer
than seasonal normals. Overnight lows will remain in the mid 60s to
low 70s each of the next two mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 108 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

On Sunday an inverted upper level trough will be situated across
northeast Mexico into South Texas, an upper level ridge across
northwest Mexico into the Southwest U.S., and longwave trough
through the northern Plains, Great Lakes, and eastern CONUS. The
ridge will amplify slightly Monday with downstream trough deepening.
This will send a cold front through the area Monday.

Ahead of the front, well above normal high temperatures will
continue, with highs for most areas Sunday and Monday in the mid to
upper 90s. There will be a slight chance of showers ahead of the
front Monday afternoon and early evening across mainly western and
southwestern areas of the CWA. The main impacts behind the front
will be much drier air, with dew points in the 40s and precipitable
water values below 1" Tuesday through Friday. This will lead to cool
mornings but warm afternoons. Lows Wednesday through Friday mornings
are forecast to be in the mid 50s to mid 60s with highs in the upper
80s to low 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri Sep 23 2022

Much like the last several days, VFR conditions continue to prevail
across the region. Have maintained continued VFR through the
duration of the 24-36 hour forecast period at all fields, though some
FEW-SCT coverage at/near FL015 is possible near daybreak at the San
Antonio terminals. Reductions to MVFR continue to appear unlikely as
of this forecast cycle. Early morning low cigs will quickly mix out
with surface heating, giving way to SCT fair weather cu between FL060
and FL070 at the I-35 aerodromes tomorrow afternoon. Expect mostly
clear skies through the period at DRT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              70  97  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  69  97  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     69  97  71  98 /   0  10   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            70  95  71  96 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           70  93  72  94 /   0   0   0  10
Georgetown Muni Airport        70  97  71  98 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             69  94  72  96 /   0  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        69  97  70  98 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   70  98  71  97 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  95  72  95 /   0  10   0  10
Stinson Muni Airport           72  96  72  96 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...KCW
Long-Term...76
Aviation...Quigley


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