Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
749 FXUS64 KEWX 281149 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 549 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Well above average temperatures continue through the next seven days. - Patchy to areas of fog possible across portions of the region during the next few mornings. - Low to medium chances (20 to 40%) for rain and storms mid to late next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Southerly lower level flow has taken hold to allow an increasingly moist airmass to spread over South Central Texas this weekend. Low clouds with patchy to areas of fog can be expected along and southeast of the Escarpment early this morning and across all areas tonight into Sunday morning. Some fog may become locally dense with areas near the Coastal Plains favored this morning and portions of the Hill Country and Edwards Plateau late tonight into Sunday morning. These are based on HREF probabilities. Will monitor for possible issuance of Dense Fog Advisories. A strengthening surface pressure gradient will result in breezy winds with some gusts up to 30 mph, especially during the daytime hours enhanced by mixing. The lower level thermal ridge and mixing with a warm northwesterly mid level flow keep temperatures 10 to 17 degrees above average for late February into early March. Although no rain is forecast, cannot rule out a few patches of mist along the Escarpment early Sunday morning due to upslope forcing there. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 1209 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Little change is expected early next week as the weekend pattern continues. Then, all models, ensembles, and their AI versions show a mid to upper level trough passing over the Plains mid week. There remains uncertainty on a cold frontal passage across our area mid week. The current consensus keeps the front well north of our area. However, some show inconsistency in moving it into parts or all of our area. Regardless, forcing by the base of the trough and the low level jet should be able to generate showers. Weak to moderate instability and mid level lapse rates along with weak shear may allow for isolated thunderstorms, as well. The passage of the front would enhanced the rainfall potential. For now, will maintain the low to medium rain chances. As we get into that time frame, Hi-Res models should resolve the details with respect to rain chances. To paraphrase previous discussions, "Of greater certainty are the well above average, Spring like temperatures that continue all of next week" due to the lower level thermal ridge persisting. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 522 AM CST Sat Feb 28 2026 Low clouds and fog have made it to I-35. Looks like there are some breaks on satellite and we have used TEMPO for reduced ceilings and visibility. Should continue until mid-morning. Low clouds should reach DRT within in the next couple of hours. All terminals will be VFR through the afternoon and evening. Low clouds will redevelop Sunday morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 86 60 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 86 58 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 85 58 83 59 / 0 0 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 84 57 81 58 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 87 62 83 61 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 85 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 86 58 84 58 / 0 0 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 86 58 84 60 / 0 0 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 85 59 83 60 / 0 0 0 0 San Antonio Intl Airport 85 61 83 62 / 0 0 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 87 62 84 62 / 0 0 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...05