353
FXUS64 KEWX 062253
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
553 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat of Flash Flooding from slow moving and repeat heavy
  rains continues through this evening. The Flood Watch for the
  Hill Country and I-35 Corridor remains in effect until 10 PM
  CDT.

- Rain chances continue on Monday and Tuesday.

- Eventually trending seasonably drier and warmer this coming week.

&&

.UPDATE...
With ongoing showers and thunderstorms we have extended the
Flood Watch until 10 pm.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A mid level MCV and unusually moist airmass, with PWs of 1.7 to
2.4 inches, remain in place over our area. We`re seeing showers
and thunderstorms develop across the CWA and expect this to
continue until this evening. With the high PW and slow cell
motion, locally heavy rain will be possible. A Flood Watch
remains in effect for the Hill Country and I-35 Corridor.
Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected with isolated
amounts up to 10 inches possible. This rain will aggravate
ongoing flooding and likely create new flooding as soils are
saturated making runoff more rapid. The heaviest rain is
expected over the Hill Country to along the I-35 corridor. The
MCV will weaken some by Monday with only a slight decrease in
moisture/PWs. Showers and thunderstorms may be less focused and
have only slight chances on Monday. The clouds and rain areas
will keep daytime temperatures below to well below average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The mid level feature will be replaced by an inverted trough
moving onto the Texas coast Tuesday keeping moisture levels
elevated. The blended guidance has caught on to the trends of
the last several model runs and indicates low chances of showers
and thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and again Wednesday
afternoon. This will spread from the Coastal Plains to the Hill
Country. The blended model solution shows the subtropical ridge
building over the region over the latter part of the week
bringing dry and warmer weather.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Opted to go with PROB30s to account for uncertainty with -TSRA
timing and coverage. Ultimately, any storm that forms would bring
extreme rainfall rates and a reduction in visibilities. Winds should
remain southeasterly at about 10 kts through the evening before
falling to less than 5 kts overnight. Have kept vicinity showers in
play as well through today and into the overnight hours. MVFR
ceilings return after 9-10Z Monday morning and stick around through
late morning Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  74  93 /  30  20   0  20
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  75  91  74  93 /  30  20   0  20
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  92  73  93 /  30  20   0  20
Burnet Muni Airport            73  89  72  90 /  20  20   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           77  94  76  95 /  10  10   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        74  90  74  91 /  20  20   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             74  90  73  91 /  20  10   0  10
San Marcos Muni Airport        75  92  73  93 /  30  20   0  20
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  91  74  92 /  10  30   0  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       76  91  75  92 /  30  10   0  20
Stinson Muni Airport           76  93  74  94 /  30  10   0  20

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch until 10 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-Bastrop-
Bexar-Blanco-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-Gillespie-Guadalupe-Hays-
Kendall-Kerr-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-Williamson.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...MMM