264
FXUS64 KEWX 101740
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the
country this morning. At the surface, a stationary front was
stretched along our northern border. The low level flow is from the
southeast bringing a warm, moist airmass to the CWA. The upper flow
over TX is west-northwesterly on the backside of the trough. This
pattern will remain in place for the short term period. Within the
upper flow models show a series of shortwave troughs that will move
across the stationary boundary and provide lift for convection. Rain
chances will begin across the north and spread south through the
afternoon and evening. The airmass will have around 3000 j/kg of CAPE
and vertical wind shear of 40-45 kts and strong to severe storms will
be possible. SPC has included our Rio Grande region in the level
2-Slight risk for severe thunderstorms and the rest of the CWA in the
level 1-Marginal. All severe threats are possible in the Slight area
and wind and hail are most likely in the Marginal. The best timing
for strong storms is late this afternoon and evening. In addition to
the severe threat there should be sufficient moisture in the airmass
for locally heavy rainfall. WPC has included the Hill Country,
Southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains in the level 2-Slight
risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding.
Convection should decrease overnight. The pattern will not change
significantly Wednesday and will see another chance for strong to
severe thunderstorms. If convection plays out as expected today, it
will leave the airmass a little less favorable for severe storms
tomorrow. SPC only has a level 1-Marginal risk for damaging wind and
hail. The level 2-Slight risk for excessive rainfall will shift to
the east Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Another upper level trough will move out of the southwest and over TX
for the latter part of the week while the low level flow continues to
pump warm, moist air into South-Central Texas. This will mean
continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and
Thursday. Details get a little fuzzy, but there will be some chance
for strong storms and locally heavy rain. Thursday afternoon and
evening are the most likely time. For the end of the week and weekend
an upper ridge will push in from the west which will bring an end to
the wet pattern from west to east. Convection could linger over the
eastern part of the area each day through Sunday. By Monday all of
the area should be dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025

Low confident forecast throughout the TAF period. Most of this
afternoon should trend mainly dry and VFT at the area TAF terminals
after the decay of this morning`s rain/storm complex over the region.
The main exception may be some light rain or a nearby storm at KDRT
in the first few hours. Late this evening through the overnight
should see development of another storm complex out west that will
shift east. Additionally, some additional storm development is
possible along an outflow boundary in the advance of the complex.
Added a prevailing group featuring -TSRA for the period of greatest
confidence and impact. Areal coverage could decline from Tuesday
morning through Tuesday afternoon but activity remains possible with
PROB30 groups at each of the sites. MVFR ceilings will also look to
develop overnight through Wednesday morning as well. Additional
reductions in ceilings and visibility are also possible in
SHRA/TSRA. The north-northeasterly flow in the wake of this
morning`s complex returns to more of a prevailing east-southeasterly
flow, however, variable winds with gusts of 30+ kts are possible
in/near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  88  73  88 /  50  70  60  60
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  89  73  87 /  50  70  60  60
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  89  73  89 /  50  70  60  60
Burnet Muni Airport            71  86  70  86 /  50  70  60  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           73  90  75  96 /  80  40  30  20
Georgetown Muni Airport        72  87  71  85 /  50  70  60  70
Hondo Muni Airport             73  90  72  91 /  70  70  60  50
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  88  73  88 /  50  70  60  60
La Grange - Fayette Regional   76  88  75  88 /  40  70  40  60
San Antonio Intl Airport       75  89  74  90 /  60  70  60  60
Stinson Muni Airport           76  91  75  91 /  50  70  60  60

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...05
Long-Term...05
Aviation...Brady