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000
FXUS64 KEWX 020851
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
351 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Area of rain with isolated showers and thunderstorms continues over
the Hill Country and Escarpment west to Val Verde County and the
Serranias del Burro. An MCV has developed near Langtry. Expect the
precipitation to gradually dissipate early this morning.

The Subtropical Ridge will become more dominant over South Central
Texas with increasing subsidence, capping warm mid level
temperatures, and decreasing moisture aloft keeping rain out of the
forecast. However, with the development of the MCV have introduced
slight chances of showers and thunderstorms for Val Verde county
late this afternoon into early evening. The main threats are locally
heavy downpours, small hail, and gusty winds.

While high temperatures trend upward with more areas near or higher
than 100 degrees, more efficient mixing of dewpoints make for less
elevated afternoon heat index values. Expect maximum afternoon heat
index values of 100 to 106 today and 98 to 103 on Friday, except
lower in the Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM (Friday Night through Wednesday)...
Conditions should continue to gradually dry over the holiday weekend
and allow high temps to climb another degree or two. There is a
chance SAT could see the first 100 degree day of the season in the
Friday through Sunday window, but this forecast keeps them just shy.
The upper ridge maintains a good hold over the weather through the
weekend as the upper ridge axis extends from the SWrn US into the
Central Plains. By Monday, the ridge presence over the high plains
weakens and a mid-level disturbance is shown in the GFS to drop south
into TX Monday into Monday night. The ECM shows a more conservative
feature that takes a more easterly track and leaves Central TX mostly
dry. Pooled moisture over East TX could backdoor its way into the
eastern counties on Tuesday. All of these Monday through Tuesday
scenarios are low confidence for now and will be handled with mostly
slight chance PoPs. The weakening of the upper ridge should translate
to a few more clouds again and some easing of the heat and heat index
values for Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              97  73  98  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  97  72  98  73  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     97  72  98  72  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            96  70  98  73  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          102  76 101  78 103 /  20  10   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        98  72 100  74 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            100  72 100  72 100 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        97  72  98  72  99 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   98  73  98  74  98 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       98  73  99  75  99 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           98  74  98  74  99 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Oaks