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000
FXUS64 KEWX 100539
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1239 AM CDT Thu Jun 10 2021

.AVIATION...
MVFR stratus has developed over the Hill Country and should
overspread the terminals within the next hour or so. While some brief
IFR conditions are expected, the cloud bases should primarily remain
low MVFR. Conditions will slowly improve by the late morning hours
with VFR expected by the afternoon. Southerly flow will prevail
through the period with another round of MVFR ceilings likely
tomorrow night.

&&


PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 235 PM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...
Weather pattern will remain quiet and rain free through the short
term as the region remains under the influence of a mid-level ridge
centered across northern Mexico into west Texas. The main story
remains the elevated heat indices as result of above average dew
points and seasonable temperatures across the region. Peak heat
indices this afternoon should range from the upper 90s across the
Hill Country up to around 108 to 110 along the Rio Grande. Tonight
will remain warm and very sticky due to the elevated dew points.
Similar to the last few mornings, Del Rio could be near its daily
record high minimum (79 degrees) but this may depend on the amount
of low stratus as models indicate a lower signal for low clouds
across this region compared to the past few nights/mornings.

Thursday trends similar to today with high temperatures rising up
into the lower to mid 90s for the majority and in excess of 100
degrees along the Rio Grande and for the Winter Garden region as
clouds decrease into the afternoon with skies eventually becoming
mostly sunny. Area dew points look to potentially drop slightly
lower compared to the previous days, especially for areas towards
the west. Even though the heat index values will likely still be
around the 100 to 105 degree range for many, the lower dew points
should help step away from the heat indices that have neared the
heat advisory criteria over the last several afternoons. Thursday
night will again be a repeat of tonight where warm temperatures,
humid conditions trend with some low stratus development. However,
like for tonight`s forecast, there remains less of a model signal
for widespread low cloud cover as compared to the last few nights,
especially out west.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...
Not much change for the end of the week. The upper level ridge will
continue to dominate over South Central Texas. Some small wind shifts
will bring slightly drier air to the region and reduce heat indices.
There will not be any chance for rain through Sunday. The upper
ridge will retreat some to the west Monday and weak cold front will
drop down through Central Texas. This will move slowly to the south
and slide to the east of our CWA while remaining over the region into
the middle of next week. There will be low chances for showers and
thunderstorms each afternoon Monday through Wednesday. The best
chances for convection will be over the eastern half of the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              74  92  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  74  92  72  93  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     74  94  73  95  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            72  92  72  93  72 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 102  75 101  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        73  92  72  92  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             73  95  72  95  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        74  94  72  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   75  93  75  94  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       74  94  73  94  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           75  96  75  96  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire
Long-Term...YB