


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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264 FXUS64 KEWX 101740 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1240 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 A deep upper level trough covers most of the eastern half of the country this morning. At the surface, a stationary front was stretched along our northern border. The low level flow is from the southeast bringing a warm, moist airmass to the CWA. The upper flow over TX is west-northwesterly on the backside of the trough. This pattern will remain in place for the short term period. Within the upper flow models show a series of shortwave troughs that will move across the stationary boundary and provide lift for convection. Rain chances will begin across the north and spread south through the afternoon and evening. The airmass will have around 3000 j/kg of CAPE and vertical wind shear of 40-45 kts and strong to severe storms will be possible. SPC has included our Rio Grande region in the level 2-Slight risk for severe thunderstorms and the rest of the CWA in the level 1-Marginal. All severe threats are possible in the Slight area and wind and hail are most likely in the Marginal. The best timing for strong storms is late this afternoon and evening. In addition to the severe threat there should be sufficient moisture in the airmass for locally heavy rainfall. WPC has included the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and Rio Grande Plains in the level 2-Slight risk for excessive rainfall that could lead to flash flooding. Convection should decrease overnight. The pattern will not change significantly Wednesday and will see another chance for strong to severe thunderstorms. If convection plays out as expected today, it will leave the airmass a little less favorable for severe storms tomorrow. SPC only has a level 1-Marginal risk for damaging wind and hail. The level 2-Slight risk for excessive rainfall will shift to the east Wednesday. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 257 AM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Another upper level trough will move out of the southwest and over TX for the latter part of the week while the low level flow continues to pump warm, moist air into South-Central Texas. This will mean continuing chances for showers and thunderstorms Wednesday night and Thursday. Details get a little fuzzy, but there will be some chance for strong storms and locally heavy rain. Thursday afternoon and evening are the most likely time. For the end of the week and weekend an upper ridge will push in from the west which will bring an end to the wet pattern from west to east. Convection could linger over the eastern part of the area each day through Sunday. By Monday all of the area should be dry. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue Jun 10 2025 Low confident forecast throughout the TAF period. Most of this afternoon should trend mainly dry and VFT at the area TAF terminals after the decay of this morning`s rain/storm complex over the region. The main exception may be some light rain or a nearby storm at KDRT in the first few hours. Late this evening through the overnight should see development of another storm complex out west that will shift east. Additionally, some additional storm development is possible along an outflow boundary in the advance of the complex. Added a prevailing group featuring -TSRA for the period of greatest confidence and impact. Areal coverage could decline from Tuesday morning through Tuesday afternoon but activity remains possible with PROB30 groups at each of the sites. MVFR ceilings will also look to develop overnight through Wednesday morning as well. Additional reductions in ceilings and visibility are also possible in SHRA/TSRA. The north-northeasterly flow in the wake of this morning`s complex returns to more of a prevailing east-southeasterly flow, however, variable winds with gusts of 30+ kts are possible in/near SHRA/TSRA. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 74 88 73 88 / 50 70 60 60 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 74 89 73 87 / 50 70 60 60 New Braunfels Muni Airport 74 89 73 89 / 50 70 60 60 Burnet Muni Airport 71 86 70 86 / 50 70 60 70 Del Rio Intl Airport 73 90 75 96 / 80 40 30 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 72 87 71 85 / 50 70 60 70 Hondo Muni Airport 73 90 72 91 / 70 70 60 50 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 88 73 88 / 50 70 60 60 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 88 75 88 / 40 70 40 60 San Antonio Intl Airport 75 89 74 90 / 60 70 60 60 Stinson Muni Airport 76 91 75 91 / 50 70 60 60 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...05 Long-Term...05 Aviation...Brady