Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 020554
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1254 AM CDT Thu Jul 2 2020

.UPDATE...
An area of rain with isolated showers and thunderstorms continues
across the Hill Country west to Val Verde county and will spread to
the Escarpment over the next few hours as the MCV drifts southeast.
Have increased POPs across these areas. Expect dissipation early in
the morning as the airmass stabilizes. Locally heavy downpours will
be the main threat with wind gusts to 30 mph also possible.

&&

.AVIATION...
The above mentioned rain will impact KSAT and KDRT overnight and
have gone with -RA at KSAT and VCSH at KDRT. Will monitor trends for
possible updates to mention at KAUS and KSSF. This will likely play
havoc with CIGs at the sites. For now, have gone with MVFR CIGS at
the I-35 sites, then at KDRT by morning. However, there could be
times when the low CIGs are disrupted and become VFR. Any lower CIGs
should lift and mix to VFR by midday. MVFR CIGs return Thursday
night. S to SE 7 to 15 KTS will prevail with a few gusts to 25 KTs
possible. Winds could be variable in direction near SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 808 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/

UPDATE...
An area of thunderstorms is moving slowly southward toward Val Verde
and Edwards Counties. There is a slight chance that some of these
storms will make it into our CWA later this evening, We have adjusted
the forecast to increase POPs in the this area for the next few
hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be in good shape.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/

AVIATION...
All terminals are currently VFR and will remain that way through
most of the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop late this evening
first in San Antonio then a short time later in Austin and later
overnight at DRT. MVFR will continue overnight and VFR conditions
will return by around noon Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...Above average
temperatures will be a mainstay across south central Texas through
the period with influence from mid-level sub-tropical ridging
overhead and warm 850 mb temperature anomalies across the region.
Many locations for this afternoon have seen the heat index values
climb in excess of 100 to 105 degrees Fahrenheit but have remained
short of heat advisory conditions. Lower surface dew points with
drier air is expected on Thursday, which should keep the heat indices
slightly lower in the afternoon compared to today. Otherwise,
anticipate light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue.
On another note, the high minimum temperatures could be set for the
date, if the current morning lows continue to hold.

The ridging pattern aloft will help to generally suppress the rain
chances due to subsidence. However, combination of a weak shortwave
over the Pecos Valley/Edwards Plateau, the dryline to the west and
orographic lift is expected to generate isolated to scattered
convection into and through the evening hours for the areas to the
north and west of a line extending from Kinney county to Kerr
county. Moderate to strong instability across that area could lead
to a few strong cells moving into the county warning area despite
the lack of impressive deep layer shear. Convection will gradually
diminish with the loss of daytime heating but will continue to
monitor for any debris rain/anvil that could linger into the
overnight hours. Rain chances are expected to remain lower on
Thursday but will monitor for any isolated convection that may
develop further north and west along the dryline during Thursday
afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...500mb ridge across northwest
Texas Friday will gradually shift westward through the rest of the
week into the weekend but will continue to provide subsidence across
South Central Texas as northerly flow aloft prevails across the area.
A weakness in the upper level ridge is expected to develop across
west Texas early next week as an elongated 500mb trough/low develops
across the northern Gulf coast states extending into east Texas
Monday. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the CWA Monday as the GFS progs an
MCS feature with a MCV developing northwest of the area and moving
southeast Mon afternoon. In addition...a weak 500mb low is progged
to develop across portions of South Central and South Texas Tuesday
and this may provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the CWA through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              72  99  74 100  76 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  72  98  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     72  97  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            70  99  72  99  74 /   0   0  -    0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           76 102  76 104  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        72 100  73 101  75 /   0   0  -    0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             71  99  72 101  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        71  98  72  99  74 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   73  98  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       72  98  73 100  75 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           73  98  73  99  75 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...04
Long-Term...Oaks



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