377
FXUS64 KEWX 100740
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
240 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

The overall weather pattern today will be similar to yesterday with
a broad upper low centered over Louisiana. We should see another
round of mainly isolated convection develop during the late morning
and afternoon hours, mainly across the Hill Country and areas along
and east of the I-35 corridor. While mainly showers are expected,
will keep a mention of thunderstorms in the forecast during the
afternoon hours. Convection is expected to decrease with the loss of
daytime heating, with decreasing cloudiness expected for most of the
region. The exception will be across portions of the Hill Country
and nearby I-35 corridor where some mid and upper level clouds will
move in from the north late this evening into Sunday morning. On
Sunday, we will keep the forecast dry as the current round of hi-res
guidance is not overly optimistic in developing convection. We will
continue to monitor, but may need to add some low chances to areas
along the Highway 77 corridor. Highs today will be in the 80s for
most locations, while temperatures nudge upward into the lower 80s
to lower 90s on Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

Key Message:

- Near-record to record warmth may bring heat-related impacts next
week across our region.

The lumbering low pressure system responsible for the weekend`s
modest temperatures will be in the process of drifting out of our
area Sunday night. This will cause winds to drop to a near calm
overnight under clear skies, setting up a good night for radiational
cooling... at least, to the extent that late spring in Texas can
muster. Sunday night and Monday morning will likely feature the
coolest period in our current stretch of near normal to slightly
below normal temperatures, with 50s for lows throughout South-
Central Texas and low 50s throughout the Hill Country.

Climatologically speaking, Monday morning will probably be the last
time we`ll be seeing temperatures of that caliber until autumn, and
the weather pattern developing over the course of next week looks to
slam the book shut on springtime temperatures. Monday will mark a
brief transitional period as southerly flow starts to redevelop and
a warm airmass begins to overtake the outgoing cooler air. Highs
Monday will be noticeably warmer, with temperatures generally in the
upper 80s to low 90s for most areas to the upper 90s along the Rio
Grande. Consistent southerly flow will be established by Tuesday,
with an impressive 850mb thermal ridge taking shape across our
region. This will support highs Tuesday in the upper 90s to lower
100s regionwide. The thermal ridge strengthens even further
Wednesday to the upper echelon of historically observed values for
this time of year (based on NAEFS and ECWMF ENS model depictions),
leading to temperatures soaring into the 100s across much of South-
Central Texas and nearing 110 along the Rio Grande. Only a slight
reduction in temperatures is expected Thursday and Friday as the
thermal ridge is slowly displaced eastward by troughing over the
western CONUS, and highs near and over 100 are forecast to continue.
Dew points are forecast to steadily increase over the week, with the
added humidity exacerbating the heat-related concerns.

Daytime temperatures will be near or above daily record highs
Tuesday through at least Friday, and the current forecast is not far
from outright depicting all-time record warmth for the month of May
on Wednesday. HeatRisk, which estimates the risk of heat related
impacts, is Moderate to High over most of South Central Texas by
Wednesday and continues through Friday. Heat impacts are often
magnified during seasonal changes and when warmth of this magnitude
occurs abnormally early in the year. Those without effective cooling
or adequate hydration should plan for those hot temperatures and
make any arrangements to stay safe. With lows also rising to the 70s
mid to late week, little reprieve from the heat is expected
overnight. Generally dry and rain free weather is forecast to
prevail throughout next week, though isolated showers along a dry
line late Friday are possible as troughing draws closer.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1248 AM CDT Sat May 10 2025

VFR conditions are expected at area TAF sites through the current
forecast period. Northerly winds will continue through the period,
with some gusty conditions during the late morning through afternoon
hours. Similar to yesterday, we should see some isolated convection
develop during the peak heating hours, mainly for the I-35 sites.
With only isolated coverage, we will not mention in the forecast at
this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              82  61  83  58 /  20  20   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  82  60  83  54 /  20  20   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     83  59  86  55 /  20  20   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            80  57  81  55 /  20  20   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           87  60  91  59 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        81  58  81  55 /  20  20   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             84  57  89  53 /  10  10   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  59  85  55 /  20  20   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  59  80  56 /  20  20  10   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       83  61  87  57 /  20  20   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           84  61  88  56 /  20  20   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term...Platt
Long-Term...Tran
Aviation...Platt