Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 020108
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
808 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020

.UPDATE...
An area of thunderstorms is moving slowly southward toward Val Verde
and Edwards Counties. There is a slight chance that some of these
storms will make it into our CWA later this evening, We have adjusted
the forecast to increase POPs in the this area for the next few
hours. Otherwise, the forecast looks to be in good shape.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 638 PM CDT Wed Jul 1 2020/

AVIATION...
All terminals are currently VFR and will remain that way through
most of the evening. MVFR ceilings will develop late this evening
first in San Antonio then a short time later in Austin and later
overnight at DRT. MVFR will continue overnight and VFR conditions
will return by around noon Thursday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED Issued by National Weather Service Brownsville TX/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Thursday Night)...Above average
temperatures will be a mainstay across south central Texas through
the period with influence from mid-level sub-tropical ridging
overhead and warm 850 mb temperature anomalies across the region.
Many locations for this afternoon have seen the heat index values
climb in excess of 100 to 105 degrees Fahrenheit but have remained
short of heat advisory conditions. Lower surface dew points with
drier air is expected on Thursday, which should keep the heat indices
slightly lower in the afternoon compared to today. Otherwise,
anticipate light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue.
On another note, the high minimum temperatures could be set for the
date, if the current morning lows continue to hold.

The ridging pattern aloft will help to generally suppress the rain
chances due to subsidence. However, combination of a weak shortwave
over the Pecos Valley/Edwards Plateau, the dryline to the west and
orographic lift is expected to generate isolated to scattered
convection into and through the evening hours for the areas to the
north and west of a line extending from Kinney county to Kerr
county. Moderate to strong instability across that area could lead
to a few strong cells moving into the county warning area despite
the lack of impressive deep layer shear. Convection will gradually
diminish with the loss of daytime heating but will continue to
monitor for any debris rain/anvil that could linger into the
overnight hours. Rain chances are expected to remain lower on
Thursday but will monitor for any isolated convection that may
develop further north and west along the dryline during Thursday
afternoon.

LONG TERM (Friday through Wednesday)...500mb ridge across northwest
Texas Friday will gradually shift westward through the rest of the
week into the weekend but will continue to provide subsidence across
South Central Texas as northerly flow aloft prevails across the area.
A weakness in the upper level ridge is expected to develop across
west Texas early next week as an elongated 500mb trough/low develops
across the northern Gulf coast states extending into east Texas
Monday. Will mention a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across the northern portions of the CWA Monday as the GFS progs an
MCS feature with a MCV developing northwest of the area and moving
southeast Mon afternoon. In addition...a weak 500mb low is progged
to develop across portions of South Central and South Texas Tuesday
and this may provide a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms
across portions of the CWA through the rest of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              77  98  72  99  74 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  77  97  72  98  73 /  -    0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     77  97  72  97  72 /  -    0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            76  96  70  99  72 /  10  -    0   0  -
Del Rio Intl Airport           80 101  76 102  76 /  20  -    0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        78  97  72 100  73 /  -    0   0   0  -
Hondo Muni Airport             77  99  71  99  72 /  10   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        76  96  71  98  72 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   78  96  73  98  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       78  99  72  98  73 /  10   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           78 100  73  98  73 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Short-Term/Aviation...05
Long-Term...Runyen



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.