Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

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FXUS64 KEWX 091428
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
Issued by National Weather Service Miami FL
928 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021

.UPDATE...
Main concern for today continues to be the excessive temperatures
and elevated heat indices areawide during the afternoon hours. Heat
indices across the region are forecast to remain a pinch below Heat
Advisory Criteria, ranging in the 102 to 107 degree mark. Thus, the
SPS issued for elevated heat indices stays in effect through 00Z (7
PM CDT) this evening. As stated above, while these values are just
below the HT.Y criteria, this is the first prolonged hot streak of
the summer which may catch people unprepared when spending extended
time outdoors. Stay hydrated, limit time outdoors, and wear light
colored, loose fitting clothes to help limit the effects of heat.
REMEMBER....never leave young children and pets unattended in
vehicles under any circumstances. The main risk times will be from 12
PM to 7 PM CDT. Otherwise, dry weather and plenty of sunshine
prevail across the CWA.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 630 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/

AVIATION...
MVFR ceilings with pockets of IFR continue across all terminals this
morning. Conditions will improve by the late morning hours with VFR
expected this afternoon. Southerly flow will prevail through the
period with speeds generally around 10-15 knots during the afternoon
periods. Another round of ceiling restrictions can be expected
tonight.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 332 AM CDT Wed Jun 9 2021/

SHORT TERM (Today through Thursday)...
The main concern for the short-term forecast will continue to be the
elevated heat indices during the afternoon period. Low-level
moisture remains high as evident by the persistent nocturnal stratus
developing each night. Highs today will top out in the lower to
middle 90s for the Hill Country and areas east of the I35 corridor.
Afternoon dewpoints will continue to remain in the middle 70s leading
to heat index values this afternoon in the 102 to 107 degree range.
Highs closer to the Rio Grande and southwestern counties will remain
in the middle 90s to near 100 degrees. Dewpoints in this region
should be in the lower to middle 70s leading to heat index values
this afternoon in the 104 to 109 degree range. The heat indices
across the region will remain just below Heat Advisory Criteria and
will issue another Special Weather Statement to cover the elevated
heat index values.

A strong upper ridge will continue to have a hold on our weather for
the short-term period and therefore, dry weather is expected to
persist for the area. Lows tonight will be warm, in the middle to
upper 70s for most locations. Highs tomorrow will be similar to
today with heat index values slightly lower with lower afternoon
dewpoints expected.

LONG TERM (Thursday Night through Tuesday)...
The ridging pattern aloft over TX continues through the weekend, and
the models show good agreement on the shape of the mid level low and
it`s near stationary position over TX. However, there is a model
consensus trend to delay the more meridional pattern that was
discussed over the past couple days.

With each day of dry weather, warmer max temps, and lower humidities
will result leading to an easing off the elevated heat indices. The
day-to-day changes should be subtle, and morning dew points should
continue to run high through the next week. By Saturday, the daily
warming of Max temps will hit the mid-90s or higher for all the
climate sites, and morning min temps should ease off a couple degrees
from the current values. The MOS guidance trends of the GFS/ECM both
suggest a warmer and drier signal for Sunday, before showing a more
mixed signal for Monday. The GFS is more aggressive with a shortwave
disturbance to possibly bring a weak cold front with it Monday while
the ECM offers another day of hot/dry weather at least through the
early afternoon. By late Monday, both show a more weakened ridging
pattern aloft and an increase in convection. Slightly cooler weather
and low chance (15-40%) PoPs are offered for the middle of next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              93  74  92  74  93 /  -    0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  93  74  92  73  93 /  -    0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     94  75  94  74  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            92  74  91  72  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           99  79 102  77 103 /  -    0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        92  74  91  73  92 /   0   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             95  74  94  72  95 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        93  74  93  73  94 /  -    0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   93  77  93  75  93 /   0  -    0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport       94  74  93  74  94 /   0   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           96  77  95  75  96 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Update...FELL


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