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000
FXUS62 KILM 270234
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
934 PM EST Sun Nov 26 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Light rain will continue tonight due to an upper disturbance. A
strong cold front will move through Monday with cold Canadian
high pressure persisting through mid week. Low temperatures in
the 20s to around 32 at the coast are expected Wed morning. This
should put an end to whats left of the growing season. The high
will push offshore later in the week with a return to milder
temperatures and increased chances for rain as another upper
disturbance impacts the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Overall the more organized area of rain is playing just about as
expected. Within an hour or two this will be moving offshore.
There is more scattered activity still to the west however and
keeping some mention of pops through the overnight hours seems
reasonable.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Tonight...Forecast confidence is moderate with the main challenge
being rainfall amounts. Persistent low-level wedge of high pressure
will weaken as a weak low pressure system moves northeast from the
FL Panhandle to well off the Carolina coasts ahead of a cold front
approaching from the west. Some mostly light showers will continue
to shift northeastward across NE SC and SE NC through about the
first half of tonight before most, if not all, of the rain is done
by daybreak. Most spots will only see a few tenths of an inch at
most with possibly a bit more near and north of Wilmington. Lows
Should mainly be in the lower to mid 40s inland with upper 40s near
the coast.

Monday...Forecast confidence is  moderate to high. A dry cold front
will move through bringing drying conditions and clearing skies.
Main change was to lower highs a bit with most locales in the upper
50s which is a bit below normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term period will be cold and dry as Canadian high pressure
builds in from the W/NW. Things become more or less a temperature
forecast as waves of strong CAA wash over the area. Clear skies
with a light NW breeze are on tap for Mon night. Winds look to
pick up towards daybreak which could disrupt radiational cooling
when things would be getting coldest, so only lowered
temperatures slightly in traditionally colder spots at this
time. Lows near freezing away from the coast.

For Tuesday, lowered dewpoints during the day as cold, dry NW flow
piles in at the surface. Some mid-level moisture could filter in from
the west closer to the coast later in the day, increasing cloud
cover slightly, but otherwise very dry and breezy conditions. Highs
in the lower 50s, 10 deg below normal. This then leads into our
coldest night of the short term, with lows in the low to mid 20s,
near freezing at the coast. Based on the current forecast our
climate site in Florence, SC could see near record lows Tuesday
night with the record being 23 in 1956. These conditions will put an
end to our growing season in the remaining coastal zones and New
Hanover county. Lower confidence on frost in these areas however as
winds could stay up near the coast overnight which would limit
coverage. Decided to leave it out of the forecast for now.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Cold air will stick in place at the surface for a majority of
Wednesday until the high pressure center slips just offshore
and CAA comes to an end. Highs in the low to mid 50s. In the
wake of the high, some low-level ridging looks to start to build
in over the area, with weaker high pressure lingering
overnight. Lows for Wed will be a bit more tricky as we lose CAA
but winds will be largely calm. Currently have upper 20s/lower
30s in the forecast but could see things remaining on the colder
side away from the coast as we decouple and some of our colder
spots` temperatures really drop out overnight. Frost may become
more probable as well due to the lighter winds but it`s still
far out to tell.

Temperatures should then start to recover as the high pressure
left in place starts to weaken Thurs before pushing fully
offshore come Fri. Precip chances increase as southerly flow
increases and moisture starts to advect into the area. A coastal
trough may form briefly Fri before a cold front approaches from
the north Sat into Sun, possibly stalling before reaching us.
Temps could warm to near 70 come Sat and should remain above
normal through the long term period.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Lower ceilings associated with rainfall slow to develop this
evening but its just a matter of time via essentially all
guidance. MVFR develops in the next few hours and give way to
IFR or lower shortly thereafter. This occurs on a west to east
spatial and temporal scale as does the improving conditions
later Monday morning.

Extended Outlook...VFR late Mon until Fri/Sat when showers could
lead to brief/minor flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Monday...Forecast confidence is moderate to high. High
pressure to give way to a cold front Monday which will lead to
increasing offshore winds late tonight, although gusts should mostly
stay below 25 kt and thus not anticipating a Small Craft Advisory
given seas will also stay 4 ft or less.

Monday Night through Friday...A dry cold front and tightened
pressure gradient will lead to windy conditions over the waters
through Tuesday with NW`ly winds gusting 15-20 kts. High pressure
will then start to build in from the NW with winds variable and AOB
10 kts, shifting offshore by the end of the week with S`ly flow 10-
15 kts. Seas meanwhile will be largely 1-2 ft due to the strong
offshore flow, increasing to 3-4 ft Fri as the winds become more
onshore. A weak ENE swell at 7-9 seconds will be the dominant swell
until a SE`ly swell starts to build in through Fri. Rain chances
increase during the end of the period.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding possible along the lower Cape Fear River
during the Monday morning high tide.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...SHK
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...LEW
LONG TERM...LEW
AVIATION...SHK
MARINE...RJB/LEW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...