Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 220305
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1105 PM EDT Tue Jun 21 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances increase but not substantially on Thursday ahead
of a very weak cold front. Behind the boundary, temperatures
will remain unseasonably warm through Monday. A cold front will
move through the area Monday night, bringing scattered showers
and thunderstorms, followed by seasonable temperatures for
Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Only very minor tweaking needed as cloudiness primarily in the
thin to opaque cirrus level. Winds likely to go calm at plenty
of locations which will allow some rad cooling to occur.
Possibly bringing sfc temps within 5 degrees or less of local
dewpoints. May result in patchy fog, however confidence is quite
low to place in the fcsts other then mentioning here, especially
given the dry airmass across the region the past several days.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Latest surface analysis shows broad 1024mb surface high
pressure across the Southeast. Aloft, the Carolinas are caught
in between a deep trough just offshore, and a strong ridge just
to the west. The center of the upper low is currently located
just offshore of New England right now, and will be slowly
dropping southward through this period, situating itself
northeast of the DelMarVa region by Wednesday evening. This
causes the upper ridge to the west to retrograde slightly back
towards the lower Plains region. Though upper heights fall
slightly as a result, surface high pressure creeps closer to the
coastal Carolinas. Associated subsidence clears out the upper
cloud cover we`ve seen today, allowing for a very noticeable
increase in high temperatures. Expecting low-to-mid 90s near the
coast by Wednesday afternoon, with thermometers possibly
flirting with triple digits near the SC Pee Dee region.

Winds become more light and variable tonight, before becoming
more WSW by Wednesday morning. Skies clear late tonight, and
can`t rule out some patchy fog inland, which should quickly mix
out after sunrise. Lows tonight in the mid 60s inland, lingering
near 70 at the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
500 mb low will linger off the northern Mid-Atlantic coast
Wednesday night before lifting to the NE Thu-Thu night. The
surface pattern will be rather complex. Wednesday evening, the
main cold front will be on the west side of the Appalachians,
with a prefrontal trough extending NE-SW across the Carolina
Piedmont and another surface trough extending from coastal VA
SSE to off Cape Hatteras. The pressure field will be generally
weak, so winds should remain relative light. The direction will
vary quite a bit during this period as NW flow aloft pushes
these fronts across the area. At this time, it appears that the
main front will push through late Thursday afternoon or early
evening. Based on that timing, high temps should reach the
mid/upper 90s inland, to around 90s at the beaches, and this
would yield heat indices reaching the lower 100s across the Pee
Dee and I-95 corridor. With the absence of any apparent strong
dynamics, will keep PoPs generally in the 30-40% range along and
ahead of the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Front will be south of the area Friday morning. 500 mb heights
will rise as a mid-level trough off New England lifts, and a
ridge builds across the area from the Gulf Coast states through
the weekend. A decent shortwave will cross the Mid-Atlantic
early next week, pushing a surface front and accompanying band
of showers and thunderstorms through the forecast area Monday-
Monday night. High temps each day will generally range from
upper 80s beaches to low/mid 90s inland, with lows with a degree
or two of 70. Based on expected timing of fropa early next
week, cooler air will filter in on Tuesday, with seasonable
highs in the upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR through the 00Z TAF Issuance period. With dry conditions
prevailing the past few days, and mainly an offshore wind, low
levels should have dried out considerably. As a result, fog
development should not be an issue, except for CRE, with MVFR
a possibility given it`s close proximity to water and past
history. Most terminals should remain VFR. Thin to occasional
opaque cirrus this evening, should become generally thin cirrus
with less sky coverage thru the period. Winds generally go calm
by midnight as a weak sea breeze, attm pushing inland,
dissipates. Sfc trof develops and drops southward overnight
thru Wed with winds becoming SW to W less than 5 kt after
daybreak Wed and veering to the NE 5 to 10 kt. With temps
climbing into the 90s at most locations, even at the coastal
terminals, look for the sea breeze to develop with winds
becoming SSW-SW around 15 kt with possible g20+ kt at CRE/MYR
and late in the period at ILM.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the extended period except for a
periodic MVFR from clouds and/or showers Wed night ahead of the
passage of a sfc trof, and again from the passage of a weak
cold front Thu night. High pressure dominates Fri thru Sun.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Wednesday...Southerly winds at 5-10kts become more
southwesterly tonight. Pressure gradient starts to tighten by
Wednesday afternoon, increasing winds to 15-20kts. Gusts may
occasionally kick up to near or just above 25kts at times, but
it`s not consistent enough to issue a Small Craft Advisory at
this time (though this may need monitoring). Seas at 1-2ft
continue through tonight and Wednesday morning, quickly pulsing
up to 2-4ft by the afternoon, as a southerly swell at 4-5
seconds becomes more apparent.

Wednesday night through Sunday...A surface front is expected
to push across the waters from north to south late Wednesday
night, accompanied by a decaying line of showers and
thunderstorms. Gusts in SW winds ahead of the front will
approach 25 kt. Surface high pressure will build across the Mid-
Atlantic behind the front, and push off the DelMarVa peninsula
Friday. This will result in an onshore wind trajectory, which
will continue through the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...IGB
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...IGB/CRM


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