Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 031338
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
938 AM EDT Mon Aug 3 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Isaias will begin affecting the region later today as
the storm approaches the Carolinas. Impacts will continue into early
Tuesday before the storm moves north of the area. Typical warm and
humid weather will return with a chance of afternoon thunderstorms
each day.

&&

.UPDATE...
No updates as of 930 AM. All watches and warnings remain in
effect for Isaias.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Plethora of watches, warnings and etc being headlined across the
FA in reference to the arrival and departure of Tropical Storm
Isaias during this period. This near term period is entirely in
that window of the arrival and departure of Isaias and all
elements fcst are reflective of that. The threat of Tropical
Storm conditions will arrive mid-aftn today for the
southernmost portions of the FA, spreading north thru the aftn
and reaching the ILM NC region by early to mid evening, with
Hurricane conditions also possible near the coast. The worst of
these conditions will occur from mid- evening SC CWA to early
in the pre-dawn hrs for the NC CWA. Again, all of this hedges on
the latest Isaias track. Will have much improved conditions
from midday Tue thru the aftn with any backside Isaias pcpn
having pulled north. As for max temps today, much will depend on
the canopy of cirrus from Isaias and the commencement of
onshore moving lower clouds and pcpn. Delayed it slightly over
the northernmost portion of the FA and therefore will indicate
max temps a few degrees hier than guidance. The same goes for
max temps Tue, will indicate slightly hier by a degree or 2 with
subsidence on the backside of Isaias allowing skies to
dramatically improve.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Isaias will be well north of the area by Tuesday night with any
lingering impacts coming to an end. Deep southwesterly flow across
the area and high precipitable water values will lead to a
continuation of unsettled weather on Wednesday. In addition to the
ample moisture feed, weak shortwave energy will be rotating around a
trough over the central and eastern CONUS assisting with the
development of scattered afternoon thunderstorms on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Deep upper-level trough will reside over the central and eastern US
late next week and into the weekend. The potential for afternoon
showers and thunderstorms will increase with the weak pockets of
upper-level energy traversing the area. The amplitude of the wave
will slowly relax on Friday and shift slightly eastward with a
progressing frontal boundary that will weaken as it approaches the
area. Upper-trough will be mostly overhead on Saturday continuing
the unsettled weather in conjunction with a developing piedmont
trough into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers are already moving in and are expected to be in and out
through the day as the low approaches from the south. Possible brief
IFR visibilities in the tropical downpours. Winds will increase
rapidly this evening.

Extended Outlook...Mainly VFR conditions from mid-morning Tue and
beyond with much improved conditions. Mainly scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms during the late week period.

&&

.MARINE...
Today thru Tue:
Tropical Storm Isaias to approach from the south today, push
onshore tonight between Cape Fear and Myrtle Beach, and lift
away from the region Tue. In a nutshell and based on the latest
Isaias track, quickly deteriorating marine conditions during
today, maxing out tonight, followed by improvements during
daylight Tue. The CWF is self-explanatory with the wind and seas
fcst during the majority of this near term period, today thru
Tue, dedicated to the approach and departure of the circulation
associated with Isaias.

Tuesday Night thru Fri Night:
Winds and seas return to their typical state after the departure
of Isaias and the associated swell. Conditions over the coastal
waters will continue to improve through the weekend. The main
threat will be deep SW flow producing unsettled weather through
much of the week. A weak frontal boundary will approach the area
on Saturday and produce weak offshore winds for a brief period
on Saturday. Seas will remain in the 2 foot range with no
significant swell likely to cause combined seas.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for SCZ017-023-024-
     032-033-039-054>056-058-059.
     Tropical Storm Warning for SCZ024-032-033-039-059.
     Hurricane Warning for SCZ054>056-058.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054-
     056.
     Storm Surge Warning for SCZ054-056.
     High Surf Advisory from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM EDT
     Tuesday for SCZ054-056.
NC...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday afternoon for NCZ087-096-099-
     105>110.
     Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ087-096-099.
     Hurricane Warning for NCZ105>110.
     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106-
     108-110.
     High Surf Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 9 AM EDT Tuesday
     for NCZ106-108-110.
     Storm Surge Warning for NCZ110.
     Storm Surge Watch for NCZ106-108.
MARINE...Hurricane Warning for AMZ250-252-254-256.
&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...21
UPDATE...MCK
NEAR TERM...DCH
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM...21
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...DCH/21


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