284
FXUS62 KILM 222353
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
753 PM EDT Mon Jul 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Occasional showers and thunderstorms, some with heavy rain,
will continue through the remainder of the week as southerly
winds bring tropical moisture northward. A weak front could
stall near the area this weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No major changes with the latest update. Expect showers and
storms to continue mainly inland the first half of the night
before transitioning back toward the coast and offshore later
tonight, similar to last night. The severe storm risk will be
quite low, although heavy rainfall could produce some minor
flooding. Could see some fog develop late in areas where it
rained recently and higher clouds thin out, especially inland.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Coastal convection has weakened and transitioned to inland
convection. The HREF forecasted this transition well at 00 and
06 UTC. Today`s 12 UTC HREF shows the convection continuing to
move to the north and northwest and weakening before midnight.
The HREF is showing a weak area of convection, mainly along the
coast after 06 UTC to 12 UTC. The HREF is slightly more subdued
during the day, with convection increasing mainly inland by
evening.

One area of concern for heavy rain this evening will be northern
Marlboro County for any significant rain as they experienced
rainfall totals over 6" last night. The HRRR and the HREF are
showing convection over this area after sunset. The GFS
continues to show the southwest flow with weak shortwaves
embedded in the flow. The precipitable water will remain just
above 2" through the foreseeable future. Moderate instability
will continue. So, hopefully, we can see the areas in extreme
drought (Florence County to Columbus County) get some beneficial
rainfall.

Tonight`s  lows are expected to be in the mid-70s, and Tuesday`s
high will be around 90, except for the middle 80s at the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Stacked ridging well off the coast will persist through the period,
and along with a mid/upper trough extending from the upper midwest
to the southern plains, this ensures continued deep SW flow and
abundant moisture across the area. Scattered to occasionally
numerous showers and thunderstorms are anticipated, and should begin
to blossom late morning near the coast, and shift inland through the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Very little significant change to the synoptic pattern is expected
through Thursday as ridge holds over the western Atlantic and mid-
level trough lingers across the upper midwest, therefore the
forecast will be one of persistence. By late Thursday, the
offshore ridge gets suppressed a bit as a shortwave moves across
the Mid-Atlantic states, and Thursday afternoon/evening could
perhaps have the best coverage of showers/storms. Friday into
the weekend, a slow moving frontal boundary may stall across the
area, leading to elevated shower/tstm chances through the
Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC/NE SC
through 00Z, although do expect some periods of restrictions in
the form of showers/storms/low clouds and possible fog. The
best chance of restrictions inland at KFLO/KLBT will likely be
tonight and again Tuesday afternoon while near the coast at
KMYR/KCRE/KILM it should be later tonight/early Tuesday and
again late morning to early afternoon Tuesday.

Winds are expected to be south to southwester at less than 10
knots through the period along the coast. Wind speeds will be
less than 4 knots overnight. MVFR vsby and ceiling is possible
at KLBT and KFLO after 08 UTC.

Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and
thunderstorms each day.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday: The large-scale pattern with the Bermuda High
is well established and will continue for the immediate future.
This synoptic pattern will continue to provide the coastal
waters with south-to-southwest winds between 10 and 15 knots.
Seas will be between 3 and 4 feet through the period.

Monday night through Friday... Bermuda high pressure will hold
through the week, maintaining sustained southerly flow on the
order of 10-15 kt, with occasional gusts to 20 kt. Seas will
remain generally in a 2-4 ft range. A frontal boundary is
expected to approach from the north on Friday. Winds should
lighten up a bit in a weaker gradient along this front. It
appears as though the boundary will stall across the area, but
too early to tell just how far south it will make it. Scattered
to occasionally numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible
through the week, and in the absence of an apparent focusing
mechanism, should generally become more numerous during the
overnight hours.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Minor coastal flooding is expected along the lower Cape Fear
River each of the next several nights during high tide, mainly
due to the recent full moon. Tides along the SE NC and NE SC
coasts are also expected to be close to Coastal Flood Advisory
thresholds through Tuesday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 1 AM EDT
     Tuesday for NCZ107.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...CRM
UPDATE...ILM
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...CRM
LONG TERM...CRM
AVIATION...RJB
MARINE...RH/CRM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...