Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 301416
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
916 AM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
Chilly Canadian high will push offshore today with a gradual
return to milder temperatures into the weekend. Rain chances
will increase as upper level disturbances pass over the area
through the weekend. A cold front will move through Monday with
drier air spreading over the Southeast Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
No significant changes with the 9 AM EST update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
The surface high pressure will continue moving offshore toward the
east, and weak southerly flow on the west side of the high will
begin a warmup from the past few days not so enjoyable cold snap.
The increase in height thickness and 850 temperatures show this
slight warming trend ahead of a front approaching from Texas. This
return flow also increases the precipitable waters to near normal
values around 0.75", but The NAM, GFS, ECMWF, and GEFS all show dry
conditions through tonight. The skies will be clear through this
period.

High temperatures today will be around 60 degrees and a degree or
two cooler along the beaches. Tonight`s low temperatures are
expected to fall into the upper 30s west of I-95 and the mid-40s
along the beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Weak trough along the coast Fri morning ends up more or less being a
warm front Fri as it lifts north with temperatures quickly warming
as southerly flow develops and increases. Inland areas will struggle
to see the warmer temps on Fri and a 10 degree temp range across a
relatively short west to east distance wouldn`t be shocking. Despite
the abundant moisture Fri there is really no source of lift or
dynamics. The LLJ will be 30-35 kt, but other than that there is
very little going on. Fri will be cloudy and on the humid side near
the coast, but minimal to no measurable rainfall until late Fri
night, when the first in a series of weak surface waves with mid-
level support approach from the southwest. Temperatures on Fri will
range from near climo inland to well above climo along the coast.
Wedge weakens Fri night and warmer air starts to make inroads, with
all areas ending up well above climo Fri night.

Perhaps a brief lull in rain Sat morning as the first surface and
mid-level feature lift northeast and subsidence sets up. Pause in
activity will be short lived as the next surface/mid-level combo
move toward the area Sat afternoon into Sat night. The second wave
is more consolidated and appears to have stronger dynamics aloft.
This will lead to showers and isolated thunderstorms spreading over
the area Sat into Sat night. Some enhancement of the LLJ late Sat
into Sat night with speeds approaching 40kt. Despite these wind
speeds strong/severe potential is very limited. Little in the way of
instability with CAPE values struggling to hit 100 J/kg even during
the warmest part of the day, when LLJ is on the weak side. Along the
coast the more stable marine influence will work to offset any
warmer temps/dew points. Temperatures above to well above climo
continue Sat and Sat night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Unsettled start to next week with cold front in the area Sun
morning. Front will struggle to move east as it will be laying
parallel to the flow aloft. A series of waves moving along the front
may cause it to drift east and west at various times during the day.
The frontal zone is finally pushed east Sun night into Mon by deeper
5h trough moving east from the MS Valley. Deep dry air and cool high
pressure build in Mon into Tue with an impressive shortwave at the
base of the trough passing north of the area Mon night. Current path
of the shortwave would keep any cold pool rainfall north of the
area, but something to watch. Temperatures Sun and Mon will be above
to well above climo. High pressure settles in for Tue with
temperatures a little above climo as cooler air filtering in is
offset by abundant sunshine. A second cold front brings a
reinforcing shot of cold air via Canadian high pressure for Wed
dropping temperatures near climo

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions expected. As high pressure shift eastward winds
will be light with a east to a southeast wind of 6 knots
expected mainly from 16 to 22 UTC.

Extended Outlook...VFR continues
into Friday, when scattered showers could lead to brief/minor
flight restrictions. Periods of low clouds and showers may bring
additional restrictions at times through the weekend and into
Monday.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tonight:
High pressure will shift off the coast, and a weak trough will
develop east of the coastal waters. This surface pattern will
veer the winds from the north to east between 5 and 10 knots.
Seas will range between 1 and 2 feet through the period.

Friday through Monday:
Waters will be between departing high to the east and stalled
frontal zone to the west through the weekend and into Mon. The
result will be enhanced southeast flow on Fri, weakening and
becoming southerly on Sat. Southwest winds develop for Sun then
increase Sun night and Mon as the front zone approaches the
coast. Front passes on Mon with offshore flow developing behind
it. Strongest winds will occur late Sun night through Mon with
potential for solid 20 kt at times. Some isolated 15 kt is
possible on Fri but otherwise winds will be 10-15 kt. Much of
the time seas will be 3-4 ft except for late Fri night and Sun
night into Mon when increased winds build seas to 3-5 ft. A
southeast to south wind wave will be dominant Fri through Mon
with a weak easterly swell also present at times.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...21
NEAR TERM...RH
SHORT TERM...III
LONG TERM...III
AVIATION...RH
MARINE...III/RH


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