Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS62 KILM 270614
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
114 AM EST Tue Feb 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will continue shifting offshore and hold position
near Bermuda by midweek. Increasingly warm air will overspread
the area through Wednesday with breezy southwest flow
developing. A cold frontal passage will bring rain chances for
Wednesday night into Thursday, followed by brief high pressure
into Friday. Low pressure may develop and affect the Carolinas
over the upcoming weekend.

&&

.UPDATE...
No big changes necessary from the previous forecast with this
update.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
Tonight: Not much change in the overall pattern with surface high
pressure offshore and low pressure well to the west. Some shortwave
energy in the mainly zonal flow aloft looks to approach from the
west late tonight bringing increasing clouds. There will also be a
slight increase in the low-level jet which will also help hinder
radiational cooling and fog development. Thus, looking at a milder
night compared to last night with above normal lows, mainly in the
mid to upper 40s.

Tuesday: Passing shortwave energy and a bit deeper moisture should
lead to a few showers, mainly well inland toward the Pee
Dee/Sandhills and possibly farther east into the Cape Fear later in
the day. Should stay dry toward the Lowcountry/Grand Strand areas.
Temps are a bit tricky, especially inland where more clouds/rain are
expected. Although low-level thicknesses suggest mid 70s for highs
it will likely struggle to even reach 70 in some areas, especially
well inland where cloud/rain coverage will be greatest and near the
coast where onshore flow will occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Low to mid-level cloud cover should thin and break up during
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning as shortwave troughing
exits and subtle ridging follows behind it. Rising 1000-500mb
thicknesses beneath thinning clouds will make for an anomalously
warm Wednesday morning with lows in the upper 50s to near 60F.
On Wednesday, gusty southwest winds reaching up to 40-45mph are
possible away from the coast due to 40-50kts of flow near the
top of the mixed layer, which may reach up to around 850mb
inland. Mixed clouds and sun will make for a warm day with highs
reaching the mid-upper 70s, with low 80s quite possible inland
if more sun than clouds is observed.

An approaching cold front will keep winds gusty into the evening
and overnight as high pressure offshore and a high over the
Midwest maintains a tight pressure gradient on both sides of the
front. Mid-upper forcing for ascent will be lifting away from
the front as it moves through, which will lead to its associated
band of showers thinning and breaking up as it tracks across the
area. Nevertheless, some gusty showers should affect northern
zones, where up to around a tenth of precip may be observed. It
is possible that far southern zones largely avoid most precip
associated with this front. During Wednesday night, cold
advection will knock temps down into the low-mid 40s while mid-
upper clouds slowly sink south.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high pressure will build in behind the cold front with
breezy NW winds slowing down through Thursday as the pressure
gradient loosens and cold advection relaxes. Temperatures will
struggle to warm amidst the cold advection, but mid-upper 50s
are expected by mid-afternoon on Thursday. Thursday and Thursday
night look to stay dry with the high in control, but the high
will quickly shift offshore of the Mid-Atlantic coast early
Friday morning, resulting in northeasterly flow turning easterly
on Friday. Morning lows on Friday should end up below-normal,
in the upper 30s to around 40F.

Guidance appears to be coming into somewhat better agreement
with the shortwave ejecting out of the Baja California area
across the Central Plains and into the Midwest late in the
week. This would lead to rain returning via overrunning precip
atop a surface wedge maintained by the offshore surface high. A
coastal low may develop as additional shortwave energy enhances
mid-level lift near the coast, but where this low goes remains a
question. Operational guidance is pointing towards the rapid
building of a large ridge over the East Coast as a significant
trough builds into the western US. This may cause the
aforementioned surface low to meander over the weekend and keep
unsettled weather in place with considerable cloudiness and
showers possible through the weekend. The weekend period still
carries low confidence, so the outcome will depend on the finer-
scale details which still have yet to be worked out amongst the
guidance tools. Stay tuned!

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR through the 06Z TAF Issuance Period. Continued dry
conditions although may see virga from midday Tue thru sunset
Tue as a dampening upper s/w trof moves overhead. Moisture will
be lacking, but enough for a mid level cloud deck, except
possibly a 3500-4500 ft deck affecting the coastal terminals.
Main story will be the increasing S-SSW winds as the sfc pg
tightens with gusts 20+ kt possible as mixing brings down the
stronger winds from just off the deck.

Extended Outlook...VFR conditions prevail late tonight into Wed.
May see a period of MVFR conditions due to pcpn along a CFP
slated during Wed evening. Breezy SW winds, with gusts 30-40 kt
possible Wed aftn/evening prior to the CFP. Winds veer to the NW
after FROPA and continue thru Thursday under a slow diminishing
trend. Low pressure may affect the area late Fri into Sat.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...High pressure will remain centered to the east
keeping our local winds southerly, mainly 15 kt or less, although
there will be some gusts to 20 kt at times due to an increasing
pressure gradient/low-level jet. Significant wave heights will stay
mainly 3 ft or less though with some 4 footers creeping in from the
east later Tuesday.

Tuesday night through Saturday...
Southerly winds increase Tuesday night ahead of a cold front
with a Small Craft Advisory likely needed for gusts up to 30
knots. Winds will peak behind the front as mixing improves late
Wednesday night into Thursday. Seas peak in the 5-7 ft range as
the front nears and crosses the area. As high pressure builds
into the region for Thursday and Friday, winds become NE around
15-20 knots, veering on Friday as a coastal trough develops and
moves inland. Seas subside into the 2-3 ft range on Thursday as
the flow weakens. However, a developing low offshore late
Friday night could bring an increase to northerly flow and
increasing seas for the weekend.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ILM
UPDATE...MAS
NEAR TERM...RJB
SHORT TERM...ABW
LONG TERM...ABW
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...RJB/21/ABW


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.