Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC

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FXUS62 KILM 210237
AFDILM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wilmington NC
1037 PM EDT Mon Jun 20 2022

.SYNOPSIS...
Warmth and moisture will be on the rise through the midweek
period with persistent ridge to the west. Low rain chances late
week into the weekend as surface troughing and offshore upper
low lingers in the area.

&&

.UPDATE...
Increased the cloud cover overnight, mainly from mid and high
level moisture streaming southward from upstream, out of
Canada. Some very minor tweaks applied to winds/temps/dewpoints
based on latest trends and HRRR output. Airmass at the sfc still
dry and "cool" when compared to late last week. 3 record lows
set at CRE, FLO and LBT for this Mon morning lows. See the
various RERs issued.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A highly amplified ridge across the MS valley today will help
keep the column mostly dry with meager PWATs in place. This
pattern doesn`t change much tonight through Tuesday and plan to
continue a dry forecast, especially with moisture and
instability lacking. Some mid/high clouds will likely continue
to spill around the ridge axis during this time with partly
cloudy skies prevailing - and perhaps partly to mostly cloudy
skies at times. High temperatures will only be very slightly
warmer on Tuesday compared to today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
With mid to upper ridge just to the west, warming trend
continues into mid week. Low temps Tuesday night only slightly
below normal in the upper 60s. Wednesday is currently the
warmest day in the forecast as 850 temps top out around 22C.
High temps forecasted near 100F inland, with low to mid 90s near
the coast. Thankfully dewpoints will be in the low to mid 60s,
away from immediate coast, and so not expecting heat advisory
conditions at this time. A weak surface low develops near the
Carolinas late Wednesday, with a wind shift the only expected
sensible weather. Elongated upper trough off the East Coast
attempts to split late Wednesday, with a cutoff low lingering
off the southeast coast into the weekend. Increase in clouds
Wednesday night as PWATs increase will aid in low temps in the
low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Low level troughing inland Thursday translates offshore Friday,
with coastal trough/weak low lingering into the weekend.
Temperatures remain well above normal Thursday as mid level
ridging begins to be pushed westward. High temps in the upper
90s inland and low 90s for coastal counties. With increase in
dewpoints to upper 60s to low 70s, Thursday will feel muggier
than Wednesday with heat indices in the triple digits. Slightly
above normal temps continue Friday into the weekend. Low end
diurnal pops enter the forecast Thursday through the weekend
with surface trough/weak low nearby and increase in PWATs. Weak
subsidence in the mid levels evident in the soundings keeps pops
capped around 25%.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR conditions to dominate the 24 hr 00Z TAF Issuance Period.
SCT to BKN mid/high level clouds will continue to drop south
across the area, mainly in the 15k to 25k foot height. However,
time height series indicate 10k to 15kt foot cloud decks will
dominate during the pre-dawn Tue thru late morning Tue, could
even observe FEW/SCT 8k-9k foot altocu decks mainly across the
inland terminals. Sea breeze somewhat pinned this evening and
should scour out several hrs after sunset. Otherwise, expect
variable wind 3 kt or less overnight, however will identify a
"best" direction in lieu of going vrbl. Winds after sunrise,
generally NW-NE 6 kt, becoming ESE-SSE 10 kt at the coastal
terminals from midday on, due to the sea breeze.

Extended Outlook...VFR through the extended period except for a
periodic MVFR from showers associated with the passage of a
weak cold front or sfc trof Thu night into Fri.

&&

.MARINE...
Through Tuesday...Weak high pressure over the waters will
result in light flow that will mainly be modulated by the
seabreeze early this evening, then again during Tuesday
afternoon. Benign boating conditions are expected as well
resulting from the anemic pressure gradient with seas
generally around 2 ft through the near term period.

Tuesday Night through Saturday...Southwest winds 10-15 kts
Wednesday increase a little Wednesday night as a surface
trough strengthens inland. Winds shift to southeasterly around
10 kts Thursday, with more varied directions late Thursday
into Friday as trough shifts offshore and lingers near the
coast. ENE winds forecasted for late Friday through Saturday.
Seas 2 ft Wed increases to 3-4 ft overnight as building SW wind
wave mixes with 8 sec SE swell. 3-4 ft seas linger Thursday
through Saturday as wave spectrum translates from SSW wind wave
dominant to E swell dominant late Friday.

&&

.ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...VAO
UPDATE...DCH
NEAR TERM...SRP
SHORT TERM...VAO
LONG TERM...VAO
AVIATION...DCH
MARINE...VAO/SRP


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