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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
Issued by NWS Wilmington, NC
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788 FXUS62 KILM 212312 AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 712 PM EDT Sun Jul 21 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonable temperatures and good chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue for most of the next seven days as Bermuda High offshore and the Piedmont Trough inland remain nearly stationary. && .UPDATE... No major changes with the latest update. Still limited coverage of showers and storms across SE NC and NE SC but expect that to increase into the evening as upstream convection driven by some shortwave energy aloft moves into the area and meets up with the sea breeze. Thus, the best rain chances this evening look to be inland with heavy rainfall possible. Fortunately the severe storm risk appears pretty low given the waning instability. Also, the Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect this evening for the lower Cape Fear River where minor tidal flooding is expected. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... Convection began this afternoon, today`s air mass is very similar to that of the last few days, and it is expected that convection will continue into the evening. Global Models show convection to the southwest and moving up to the western portions of the forecast area by sunrise. Another area to watch, according to the HREF models, is convection developing south of the area off the coast overnight. The models show the convection moving onshore, mainly north of Myrtle Beach. The confidence in the location of all the developing convection is low. Lows tonight are expected in the middle 70s, and Monday`s high temperatures with expected cloud cover and morning convection should stay in the lower 90s inland and upper 80s at the beaches. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... Area will remain in deep moist SW flow between ridge to the east and troughing to the west. This will maintain a warm and humid summertime air mass with chc of shwrs/tstms each day. Still looks like ridge may build westward by Tues with heights up to 595 by Tues aftn but may should see minor perturbations move northeast through the area and timing is a challenge so greater chc of convection may be hard to pinpoint leaving mainly scattered coverage overall. Coverage is difficult to forecast at any one specific time during the day, but with ridge building westward, should see storms end earlier Tues night. May see a few shwrs move up the coast overnight Tues into Wed morning. Main focus should remain along Piedmont trough inland and associated with land/sea breeze closer to the coast. Temps will be in the upper 80s to around 90 for highs with overnight lows in the low to mid 70s. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... Pattern remains fairly unchanged with ridge of high pressure to the east and troughiness to the west, but by late week, pattern shifts with ridge spreading westward across the south becoming more elongated from west to east across the south. Overall this will maintain a moist summertime air mass with daily convection focused along Piedmont trough inland and sea breeze and land breeze closer to the coast periodically enhanced by mid to upper level shortwave energy riding through. Temperatures each day will be in the lower 90s for highs and lows in the 70s at night. && .AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... High confidence in mainly VFR conditions across SE NC and NE SC through 00Z Monday, although restrictions are likely at each terminal though at some point due to periodic showers/storms/low clouds. To start the period think the best chance will be inland at KLBT/KFLO due to showers/storms moving in from the southwest and/or developing along the decaying sea breeze. Later tonight convection is progged to develop near the coast and could impact KMYR/KCRE/KILM while additional showers and possible storms along with low clouds possibly impact KLBT/KFLO until even after daybreak Monday. More showers/storms are then likely to occur area-wide Monday afternoon, generally working their way inland through the afternoon along the sea breeze. Extended Outlook...Potential for IFR/MVFR with showers and thunderstorms each day. && .MARINE... Through Monday...South to southwest winds of 10 to 15 knots are expected over the coastal waters, with 3 ft seas this evening increasing to 3 to 4 ft on Monday. Monday night through Friday... Bermuda high will maintain persistent southerly flow spiking up each afternoon to 15 to 20 knots. Seas will remain 2 to 4 ft with a typical longer period SE swell around 9 seconds mixing in through the week. May see a slight rise Mon night and Tues night with some 5 fters possible in the outer waters. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Coastal Flood Advisory until 1 AM EDT Monday for NCZ107. SC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ILM UPDATE...RJB NEAR TERM...RH SHORT TERM...RGZ LONG TERM...RGZ AVIATION...RJB MARINE...RGZ/RH