Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
266 FXUS62 KTBW 110004 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 804 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Convection has wound down across the region, with quiet conditions now expected through the remainder of the evening. Early 0Z data shows a couple different dry pocket; when coupled with the added subsidence with the ridge axis directly overhead, this is to be expected. The forecast remains on track. && .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Very isolated shower and storm activity currently visible on radar. ACARS sounding showing little improvement in moisture from this morning`s sounding with PWs still around 1.75 inches. Meanwhile, high pressure remains in control at the surface and aloft keeping a light flow in place. This will support slow moving showers and storms, which may also result in localized flooding where storms do develop. This should materializes where the highest pockets of moisture exists...over the interior and SWFL. Additionally, the delay in the arrival of the sea breeze to interior areas will allow temperatures to reach the low to mid 90s and combined with the available moisture will make conditions feel uncomfortable. Friday should be similar to today with moisture availability delaying any activity most of the day and light flow prevailing. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 On Saturday, moisture should be slightly higher and, therefore, an increase in storm coverage is anticipated. Then, an upper level area of low pressure begins to approach the region and with it additional moisture slides into the area. At the same time, an increased in onshore flow is expected, which combined with the U/L low and deep moisture advecting over the forecast area will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms Monday and Tuesday to the entire region. Winds become more south to southeast by mid week. Some guidance brings some drier air aloft to be near the region, but the low level flow should support higher pops across west central and southwest Florida along the west coast sea breeze boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours as it will be held closer to the coast. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 803 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Quiet conditions will continue, with only a low probability tomorrow afternoon for thunderstorms around the Tampa Bay region. However, there is a high probability of impacts across SWFL. This will continue for the next few days. && .MARINE... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Area of high pressure will continue to control weather conditions over the waters through the weekend. Showers and storms could develop early, but higher chances are expected in the evening. Relatively light winds of 5 to 10 knots are expected through the period...except locally gusty winds and rough seas in the vicinity of thunderstorms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 130 PM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 High pressure remains in control with fairly high moisture and light winds. Therefore, no fire weather hazards expected through the weekend as afternoon minimum relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 94 79 93 / 10 40 10 60 FMY 76 94 76 94 / 20 80 20 80 GIF 76 95 77 95 / 20 70 10 70 SRQ 76 92 76 93 / 10 40 20 60 BKV 73 94 73 94 / 10 40 10 50 SPG 79 90 79 90 / 10 40 20 60 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION...Flannery PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Delerme