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051
FXUS62 KTBW 132326
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
726 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019

.AVIATION...
Brief MVFR vsbys from shallow patchy ground fog may affect KLAL
between 09-12Z, otherwise VFR is expected at all terminals during
the next 24 hours. Light/variable winds tonight will become east
to southeast at 4 to 6 knots after 14Z becoming west to northwest
at 6 to 8 knots at the coastal terminals after 19Z as the sea
breeze component develops.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 134 PM EDT Sun Oct 13 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Continue to observe upper ridging stretched from the W Gulf of
Mexico across the FL Peninsula and into the W Atlantic today that
will hold in place through Tuesday then sink slightly southward as
AN upper trough moves through the Great Lakes into New England.

At the surface, weakening high pressure will continue to keep
mainly dry conditions in place. But there is still enough
moisture over S FL to keep a slight chance of showers into SW FL
and adjacent coastal waters.

By mid week, a weak cold front will sag into N FL and stall over
the FL Peninsula as limited upper support moves out of the region.
Low level flow to become more southerly to bring moisture back
into the area and combine with frontal lift for a chance of
showers and thunderstorms to develop mainly in the afternoons
through the end of the work week and into the weekend.

MARINE...
Weakening high pressure will remain in the area with easterly
winds and brief evening surges through early week. By mid-week a
weak cold front will sag and settle in the area with winds
shifting SE-S and a chance of rain.

FIRE WEATHER...
Dry conditions will continue with min RHs in the 45-50 percent
range through the next few days. By mid-week a weak cold front
will sag and settle in the area with a chance of rain. Some
shallow overnight field fog is possible but no significant fog is
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  88  72  87 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  71  89  71  89 /  20  10  10  10
GIF  68  89  69  89 /   0   0   0  10
SRQ  71  89  72  89 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  67  89  68  89 /   0   0   0  10
SPG  72  89  73  88 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...57/McMichael