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000
FXUS62 KTBW 141146
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
746 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019

.AVIATION...
VFR expected through the period with SCT diurnal CU expected to
develop by late morning and BKN mid-level clouds possible
overnight, especially across northern terminals. Winds becoming
E/SE gradually shifting to W/NW late afternoon/early evening due
to sea breeze development.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 533 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2019/

DISCUSSION...
Ridge axis aloft extending across the southern peninsula from the
Gulf of Mexico into the western Atlantic is responsible for
westerly flow aloft across the region. A series of upper troughs
moving across the Great Lakes and Northeast CONUS will gradually
nudge the ridge axis a bit further south from mid- to late-week,
and a shortwave originating from energy currently over southern
California is expected to approach the state toward the end of
the week.

At the surface, high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic is
keeping most of the region under generally light easterly flow. The
ridging will gradually weaken and shift east as a frontal boundary
eventually drops into the northeast Gulf and stalls/weakens by mid-
week, allowing flow to become more southerly with a slight increase
in moisture over the area.

Rain chances will increase mid-week in advance of the front and once
again as the shortwave approaches the region toward the weekend.
While global guidance is in decent agreement regarding the timing of
the mid-week rain chances, subtle differences exist amongst the
guidance regarding the evolution of shortwave approaching toward the
weekend...with the GFS leaning toward a more consolidated shortwave
with rain chances on Fri-Sat and the ECMWF depicting more strewn out
shortwave energy which allows the rain chances to encompass Sat-Mon.
Regardless, at least isolated rain chances will be possible over the
latter half of the week and into the weekend across much of the
area. Temperatures will continue to run a few degrees above normal,
with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Lows will drop into the upper
60s to lower 70s through mid-week, with mid 60s possible at some
northern locations late-week.


MARINE...
High pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain
east/southeast winds/seas around 10kts or so into mid-week. Flow
shifts more south to southwest by mid-week as a front moves into
the northern Gulf, with winds SW 10-15 kts before becoming
east/northeast around 10 kts late week then 10-15 kts during
weekend. Seas generally 2-3 ft throughout period. Chance of rain
mainly beyond mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Moistening conditions as the week progresses with minimum RHs
rising from the 45-50 percent range to the 60-70 percent range
through mid-week...when a weak cold front will settle into the
area with a chance of rain. Patchy areas of shallow overnight
field fog are possible but no significant fog is expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  89  72  88  75 /   0   0  10  10
FMY  89  71  88  73 /  20  10  10   0
GIF  89  70  89  72 /   0   0  10   0
SRQ  89  73  88  75 /  10   0   0  10
BKV  89  69  89  72 /   0   0  10  20
SPG  89  73  88  76 /   0   0  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...Norman
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Hurt