Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
657 FXUS62 KTBW 071745 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 145 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Ridging continues to sit to our south giving us our southwesterly flow. This will result in onshore flow continuing with morning showers along the coast that will move inland in the afternoon and eventually head to the east coast in the evening. This will continue for our Tuesday. By Wednesday the ridge looks to lift slightly north and stall overhead. This will give us a neutral flow regime. In this regime we typically see the highest concentration of storms along the west coast in the late afternoon and evening. The main hazard with this regime is the light flow will cause storms to be very slow moving which could result in some localized flooding each day. This pattern looks to stay in place at least through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Southwesterly flow will keep most of the shower activity away from the west coast this afternoon and evening. Because of this I have taken VCTS out of PIE, TPA and SRQ. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest today at or below 10 knots outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Ridging to our south will continue our SW flow through Tuesday with speeds around 5 to 10 knots. We will also continue to see our overnight and early morning shower activity over the water. Ridging will shift north on Wednesday and stall overnight. This will give us a light and variable flow with winds around 5 knots through the rest of the week. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 135 PM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 91 79 / 30 10 30 20 FMY 93 77 93 76 / 50 20 50 30 GIF 93 76 93 76 / 50 10 50 20 SRQ 90 78 90 76 / 30 10 30 20 BKV 90 73 92 73 / 30 10 40 20 SPG 87 80 90 78 / 30 10 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce