Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 241143
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
643 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.AVIATION...
Periodic IFR/LIFR cigs and/or vsbys in low clouds and fog will
continue to affect most of the terminals through around 14-15Z. VFR
is then expected through the rest of the day. Winds generally become
south and then southwest through the day.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 327 AM EST Fri Jan 24 2020/

..Turning Cooler For The Weekend...

SHORT TERM (Today - Saturday)...
Adequate low level moisture is again supporting a good deal of low
clouds across the forecast area early this morning with considerable
mid and high clouds noted as well. Similar to yesterday expect
the low clouds to linger through mid morning before mixing out
with the mid and high level clouds resulting in a partly to mostly
cloudy day. High pressure will continue to shift east into the
Atlantic the remainder of today as an upper level low and
attendant surface low over the central Plains moves east into the
Ohio Valley. As the upper level low/surface low move east a
trailing cold front will approach later this afternoon and then
move south through the forecast area during tonight. Similar to
yesterday some isolated showers (Pops 20%) will be possible north
of the I-4 corridor this afternoon as moisture and low level
convergence increases within the warm sector ahead of the front,
with some additional isolated showers possible across the remainder
of the forecast area through early tonight as the front moves into
and through the area.

In the wake of the front cooler and drier air will move into the
forecast area late tonight through Saturday with pleasant dry
weather expected on Saturday as high pressure builds in from the
northwest. Temperatures will run above normal today ahead of the
front with highs climbing into the mid an upper 70s. Cooler air
advecting in tonight will allow temperatures to fall into the mid
and upper 40s across the Nature Coast after midnight, and lower to
mid 50s central and south, with highs on Saturday topping out in
the mid to upper 60s north, and around 70 to the lower 70s central
and south.

LONG TERM (Saturday night - Thursday)...
Broad mid level cyclonic flow covers roughly 1/2 to 2/3s of the
nation through midweek as a couple of short wave troughs track
across the south-central and southeast states. A third short wave
trough forms over the Four Corners region Wed then moves east and
deepens into a low over west TX Thu...building down stream ridging
over the Gulf of Mexico region.

Surface high pressure was centered in the Deep South Sat night while
a front stretched along the Florida Keys and west across the Gulf of
Mexico. Through Mon the high slides to the Atlantic and weakens
as the front lifts into southern FL. A wave/low forms...in response
to the first short wave trough...on the front and tracks east
bringing with it increasing rain chances Sunday night through
early Monday. On Tue Canadian high pressure pushes into the Mid-
Mississippi Valley then slides to the Atlantic coast by Thu. On
the south side of that high pressure the second short wave trough
develops a surface low that scoots along the northern Gulf coast
and through north FL with some additional showers possible on
Thursday.

AVIATION...
Areas of IFR/LIFR cigs and MVFR/IFR vsbys will impact the terminals
through 14Z. After 14Z VFR will return. East-southeast winds in the
4 TO 6 knot range this morning will become southeast to south around
10 knot after 14Z, then southwest around 10 knots after 19Z.

MARINE...
High pressure moving east over the Atlantic and a cold front
approaching from the west will support south to southwest winds
around 10 knots with seas of 2 feet or less over the Gulf waters
today. Winds will shift to the northwest and north at 10 to 15 knots
tonight into Saturday as the cold front moves south through the
waters and high pressure builds in from the northwest through
Saturday night. During Sunday night through Monday high pressure
over the northeast Gulf and a weak area of low pressure sliding east
across the south-central Gulf and southern peninsula will support
northeast to east winds in the 10 to 15 knot range with increasing
chances for showers across the central and southern waters. In the
wake of this low high pressure will build in north of the waters
with northeast winds and dry conditions expected Monday night into
Tuesday. Wind and seas should remain below 15 knots and 5 feet
through the period with no headlines expected.

FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the area tonight with some isolated
showers along and ahead of it. In the wake of the front cooler and
drier air will again move into the region during the weekend. This
drier air will support a few hours of low humidity values below 35
percent across central and southern interior zones Sunday afternoon.
Despite the low humidity though low ERC values combined with light
winds will preclude Red Flag conditions from developing. An increase
in moisture is expected early next week with no other fire weather
hazards expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  56  67  48 /  10  10   0   0
FMY  79  60  73  48 /  10  10   0   0
GIF  78  55  70  45 /  10  10   0   0
SRQ  76  57  69  47 /  10  10   0   0
BKV  77  49  67  39 /  20  10   0   0
SPG  75  58  67  50 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05/Carlisle
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...McMichael/Rude



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