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694
FXUS62 KTBW 191958
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
358 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2019

.DISCUSSION...
A broken line of showers and thunderstorms associated with Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor continues to move east across the region
this afternoon. Scattered showers and isolated storms will linger
into the evening before gradually clearing tonight as the shortwave
interacting with Nestor moves off the eastern seaboard and ridging
builds aloft and at the surface into next week. Activity thus far
this afternoon has remained below severe levels but an isolated
strong storm cannot be ruled out. High temps this afternoon will
reach into the mid 80s with gradually clearing skies and overnight
lows in the upper 60s to mid 70s while winds decrease overnight.

Decreased shower chances continue into next week as high pressure
builds over the region allowing temps to warm. By midweek, a
longwave trough will set up over the eastern CONUS, driving another
front into the region as high pressure flattens out and shifts
offshore a bit. The front is expected to weaken on approach to the
state as the parent low pulls away to the northeast but should
nonetheless provide a brief uptick in rain chances for the midweek
period. High pressure makes a brief resurgence over the eastern
CONUS/western Atlantic heading into late week...leading to generally
fair weather across central and southwest Florida...before another
system potentially approaches by the end of the week.

High temps will warm into the mid to upper 80s for most of next week
with overnight lows in the mid 60s north to the mid 70s south.
Afternoon showers will be possible but for now nothing widespread
appears likely.

&&

.AVIATION...
Scattered showers will continue to stream in from the gulf waters so
will hold VCSH at all terminals through this evening. Overall VFR
conditions expected with possible short lived MVFR in passing
showers. Winds remain gusty out of the SW with gusts reaching 20-30
knots. Conditions improve after 03Z with shower activity diminishing
and winds decreasing to 10 knots or less. No other aviation impacts
expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms continue offshore as Post-Tropical
Cyclone Nestor continues northeast across the Florida panhandle.
Activity will begin to wane into the evening and overnight hours
but breezy onshore flow will continue into tonight with residual
seas gradually abating during the day Sunday. High pressure builds
into the region through early next week with light east to
southeast flow before turning onshore around midweek.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Southwest flow continues across the area this afternoon as Post-
Tropical Cyclone Nestor moves northeast across the Florida
Panhandle. Winds will gradually decrease to light and variable for
many locations Sunday before becoming generally southerly into
early next week. No humidity/critical threshold issues expected
despite drier air filtering into the region in the wake of Nestor.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  75  87  73  87 /  40  10  10  40
FMY  75  87  75  89 /  60  40  10  20
GIF  72  88  71  89 /  40  10  10  40
SRQ  75  88  74  89 /  50  20  10  30
BKV  69  87  68  89 /  30  10  10  40
SPG  77  86  75  87 /  40  10  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Citrus-
     Coastal Hernando-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Levy-Coastal
     Manatee-Coastal Pasco-Pinellas.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

     High Surf Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for Coastal Charlotte-
     Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-Coastal
     Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Sunday for Charlotte Harbor
     and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita Beach to
     Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Englewood to
     Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon
     Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
AVIATION...Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle