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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241854
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
154 PM EST Fri Jan 24 2020

.DISCUSSION...
An upper-level low continues to move through the midwest with an
associated cold front working its way toward the region. This front
will move through the area tonight, with a few isolated showers
possible. High pressure will quickly build in behind it, with
cooler, drier, and sunnier conditions for Saturday.

For Sunday into early next week, a series of shortwaves will move
across Florida, with a weak surface low moving across the southern
Florida peninsula Monday, bringing a chance for showers. Drier
conditions are expected for mid-week, then another shortwave trough
moves by Wednesday night, with ridging building quickly into
Thursday. Temperatures will be fairly seasonable through the next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...
Main concern is the possibility of some lower cigs near the passage
of the cold front tonight. Current trends upstream would support
this, but model guidance does not lend much confidence. Will keep
everything VFR for now, but would not be surprised if terminals see
some MVFR cigs at some point overnight. A few showers will also be
possible tonight with the front, but chances are too low to include
in the TAFs at this time. Winds will become northwest tonight through
Saturday.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will move through the area tonight, with winds becoming
northwest behind it for Saturday, but forecast to remain below
headlines. Both winds and seas look to remain below headlines
through the week, as well. After tonight, the best chance for any
showers will be Sunday night into Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A cold front will move through the region tonight, with a few
showers possible. Cooler and drier air will move into the region for
the weekend, with relative humidity values briefly going below
critical levels Sunday afternoon, mainly around the southwest Florida
region. No red flag conditions are expected, however, as neither
winds nor ERC thresholds are expected to be met. No significant fog
is expected for the next couple of nights.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  56  68  48  67 /  10   0   0   0
FMY  60  73  49  71 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  55  70  45  68 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  58  70  46  69 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  50  67  38  67 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  58  68  52  67 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

05/Carlisle