Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
075 FXUS62 KTBW 291250 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 850 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 849 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Thunderstorms continue to be the main aviation impact, with the most likely time-frame for impacts again this evening. With a light flow still in place, storms are likely to linger in the vicinity for much of the afternoon and into the evening before conditions gradually improve overnight. For the next few days, the flow is shifting to a WSW direction, which favors earlier thunderstorm activity beginning tomorrow. With larger weather features influencing thunderstorm development, there could be long windows for VCTS over the days to come. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Another warm, humid Florida day to wrap up the weekend. Showers and storms are already on the radar this morning along the nature coast, very similar to yesterday morning. Also just like yesterday, thunderstorms will continue to develop throughout the day and push inland along the light WSW flow. With the light flow, storm motion will be almost stationary at times leading to localized heavy rainfall that could lead to minor flooding. The Weather Prediction Center has placed portions of central and SWFL in a marginal risk for excessive rainfall today and tomorrow. Strong, gusty winds, small hail and frequent lightning will also be concerns in afternoon thunderstorms. This pattern continues into the work week as the surface ridge lingers over the area drawing in deep moisture. Temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s throughout the week with heat indices in the upper 90s to low 100s for some. As always be sure to take precautions when working or enjoying the outdoors. Stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade. As the afternoon thunderstorms begin to roll in remember, when thunder roars, go indoors. && .MARINE... Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 Showers and storms that developed overnight near the nature coast continue to linger this morning as they slowly push onshore. More showers and storms are expected to form over the waters throughout the morning and mariners can expect higher winds and lightning in the vicinity of these storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 343 AM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025 No major fire weather concerns through the period as ample moisture continues to dominate. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 77 86 77 / 60 50 70 50 FMY 91 74 90 74 / 60 50 70 40 GIF 90 74 88 74 / 80 50 80 30 SRQ 89 75 87 74 / 60 50 60 50 BKV 88 71 86 70 / 70 50 70 50 SPG 88 76 85 76 / 60 50 60 50 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...TBW DECISION SUPPORT...TBW UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...TBW