Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 250005
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
705 PM EST Wed Feb 24 2021

.UPDATE...
Despite a relatively warm day, we saw dewpoints cooperate across
the northern half of the CWA as surface high pressure over the NE
Gulf has kept us slightly drier air courtesy of a light
northwest/north wind. Overnight PWAT values are expected to flirt
with 0.30 inches which suggests a very dry atmosphere will be in
place. Due to the dry airmass, clear skies, and calm winds
(especially across the Nature Coast), have opted to nudge low
temps several degrees cooler to align closer to MOS guidance as
all these things indicate a strong radiational cooling night.
Thinking low/mid 40s across much of the Nature Coast and low/mid
50s across the I-4 corridor.

RAP forecast soundings at KCTY and KINF shows a saturated and
decoupled boundary layer due to the aforementioned cooling. With
the added support from hi-res visibility models, went ahead and
included Areas of overnight fog for parts of the Nature Coast.
Much farther south, favorable conditions over Miami`s area may
bleed into some of our neighboring counties - so some patchy
wording was also introduced into these areas. However, certainty
here is much lower than the Nature Coast due to less low level
moisture.


&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions through the period with perhaps some FEW/SCT clouds
near 030 during late morning into early afternoon across northern
sites. Otherwise, the forecast consists mainly of subtle wind
shifts between NNE and NW. These winds will generally remain AOB 8
knots.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the area will keep warm, dry, and otherwise
very pleasant boating conditions for the next several days.
Strengthening surface high over the Atlantic will lead to an
increase in southeasterly winds by the weekend. However, these
winds are still expected to remain just below cautionary
headline thresholds, so no hazards are anticipated into early
next week.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure over the northeast Gulf of Mexico is helping to
filter in some drier air into the area through tomorrow. Strong
daytime mixing will result in relative humidity levels dipping
below critical values during the afternoon, especially south of
I-4 and east of I-75. While ERCs will also be elevated across the
area, a lack of strong wind speeds will preclude the issuance of
Red Flag Warnings. Moisture increases beginning on Friday and
continuing into the weekend with no major fire weather concerns
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  55  79  59  81 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  59  83  62  86 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  54  81  57  84 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  54  79  59  82 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  42  80  50  84 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  61  76  62  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...42/Norman
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...24/Hubbard


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