Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 021834
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
234 PM EDT Sun Aug 2 2020

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon - Tuesday)...
An upper low over northern Quebec troughing to the western Gulf
coast this afternoon drops down to the Great Lakes by Tue...with
the trough shifting into the east US. Isaias tracks northward
along the FL east coast through Mon then continues along the
eastern seaboard. See official National Hurricane Center
advisories for updates and details. A weak surface trough in the
wake of Isaias swings across the east Gulf and Fl as high pressure
sets up in the western Gulf.

Deep moisture continues into early tonight with bands of showers
with gusty winds and a few thunderstorms rotating around
Isaias...traversing the area from generally north to south. These
end tonight as a gusty northerly flow becomes northwest to west
and diminishes. Subtle drying works in on westerly flow...as
the troughiness moves in from the west...with model PWAT values
dropping down into the 1.9 to 2 inch range. Sufficient for
diurnal scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms.

.LONG TERM (Tuesday night - Sunday)... A surface trough in the wake
of Isaias combined with ample lingering moisture (PW`s in the 1.7 to
2 inch range) will support scattered to numerous showers and
isolated storms over the forecast area through the first half of the
upcoming week, with a westerly flow off the Gulf favoring convection
over the Gulf waters and along coastal areas during the late night
and early morning hours with the convection then shifting to inland
locations each afternoon.

During the second half of the week and into next weekend the
subtropical ridge over the Atlantic rebuilds in across the central
peninsula with a light southeast wind flow regime. Ample moisture
combined with daytime heating will support typical summertime
conditions with scattered to numerous diurnal sea breeze driven
showers and storms over the area each day during the afternoon and
early evening hours. It will be warm and muggy with slightly above
normal temperatures through the period with overnight lows in the
mid to upper 70s inland areas, and near 80 along the coast with
daytime highs in the lower to mid 90s.
&&

.AVIATION...
02/18Z TAFs. Increasing mainly mid and high clouds but OCNL MVFR in
VCNTY SHRA or TSRA ending around 01Z. Northerly and gusty winds
continue into the evening then begin to diminish and back overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
A snug pressure gradient continue across the waters this afternoon
with some small craft advisory conditions. The gradient begin to
relax tonight as Isaias lifts north along the east FL coast. Gusty
showers and a few thunderstorms will sweep across through the
evening in rain bands. High pressure builds in early to midweek
and maintains a weak gradient.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Abundant moisture continues for the next few days...supporting
showers and thunderstorms and maintaining the afternoon RH above
critical levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  91  80  92 /  30  30  10  40
FMY  78  91  78  92 /  40  70  20  60
GIF  77  92  77  94 /  40  60  20  70
SRQ  80  92  80  92 /  30  40  10  40
BKV  77  91  76  94 /  30  40  20  40
SPG  80  90  81  91 /  30  30  10  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Lake Wind Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Highlands-
     Polk.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...09/Rude
LONG TERM...57/McMichael



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