Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 230044

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
844 PM EDT Tue Oct 22 2019

.UPDATE (Overnight and Wednesday)...
A cold front is on its way southward through the Florida peninsula
late this evening. The current position of the front is somewhere
just south of the I-4 corridor...and the front settle into south
Florida during the overnight. There is drier air behind the front
but it will be slow to filter in, and will likely take much of the
night for any real difference in airmass to be felt to the south
of the I-4 corridor.

Band of light broken showers along the front has been weakening
the past hour or two as it passed through the Tampa Bay area.
There really isn`t much left of these shower other than well
offshore over the Gulf. The complete loss of any synoptic forcing
and slow frontolysis overnight will continue to weaken any
remaining low level focus for ascent, and expect the potential for
showers any further south to decrease rather quickly from this
point onward.

Well inland we still see a few more robust showers exiting eastern
Highlands county. These were not associated with the front, but
are more of the summer-convection variety...forced by the
collision of the east and west coast sea-breezes over the interior
of the state. Now that we are losing daytime heating, this
convection should also weaken quickly.

Low temperatures by dawn may actually range from the upper 50s
over Levy county to the middle 60s along the I-4 corridor..and
lower 70s down toward Fort Myers.

As advertised...we will see one brief day of drier/less humid air
for Wednesday behind this front. The greater impact of this
airmass will be felt the further north one travels, especially
along and north of the I-4 corridor. These northern zones should
see dewpoints in the 50s for Wednesday...especially for the
afternoon hours. Further south, the push of drier air will be
less, but should still see dewpoints drop into the 60s. While this
is not "comfy" is certainly drier than the middle/upper
70s dewpoints we have seen the past few days. Afternoon high
temperatures range from the upper 70s to the north of Crystal the lower/mid 80s along the I-4 corridor and southward.

By the end of the Wednesday, the moisture will already be trying
to come back north...especially just above the surface, where
winds will shift back to a more southerly direction. By the later
afternoon hours, this warm air / moisture advection should help to
cloud things back over for areas like
Lee/Charlotte/DeSoto/southern Highlands counties. Some guidance
members are even trying to support a few showers/sprinkles late in
the day. Given that the overall airmass will have changed the
least in these far southern areas behind the front, can not rule
out that a shower or two will be possible, but anything should be
isolated and light in Nature. At this point, outdoor
activities/plans would likely not need to be altered by this low
impact shower potential.


.AVIATION (23/00Z through 24/00Z)...
A cold front continue to settle south through the region this located just south of KTPA/PIE. A narrow band of
broken showers may still give a brief sprinkle to KSRQ before 03Z,
but otherwise, no significant aviation concerns through the
overnight was VFR should prevail. Wind will continue to shift to
the northwest, north, and then northeast for all terminals by
sunrise. Wednesday will see prevailing VFR with a steady 8-12kt NE
wind flow. Late in the day, mainly after 20z, increasing clouds,
with a broken deck in the 3500-5000kft range is forecast to return
to KFMY/KRSW with a few isolated light showers.


A weak cold front pushing through the area overnight will help to
shift winds to a more northerly direction and will result in
winds increasing. Central and northern waters to the north of
Englewood will reach exercise caution conditions overnight as
winds increase to 15 to 20 knots. Winds will shift to an easterly
direction Wednesday night...but remain breezy through Friday with
winds around 15 knots.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  82  70  87 /  10   0   0  30
FMY  74  87  73  89 /   0  20  20  30
GIF  68  83  70  87 /  10   0  10  40
SRQ  70  85  71  89 /  10   0   0  30
BKV  63  81  66  87 /   0   0   0  40
SPG  69  84  72  88 /  10   0   0  30


Gulf waters...None.



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