Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
082 FXUS62 KTBW 121101 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 701 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the region today. The gradient remains weak with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. This flow again promotes highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida...which is also the region of best available deep layer moisture. Drier air aloft over the Nature coast combined with onshore boundary layer flow will inhibit convection in that region this afternoon. From Tampa south, deep layer moisture will be on the increase early today which will enhance convective instability and should trigger scattered shower/thunderstorm development along the west coast sea breeze boundary during the late morning/early afternoon...which hasn`t been the case the past several days due to relatively dry mid level air. The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland today with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the mid/late afternoon hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light southeast flow to start the day. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing shower/thunderstorm activity during the early/mid afternoon. Due to the weak overall flow and slow storm movement, locally heavy rain will be possible. Significant pattern change late this weekend as Sunday will be a transition day. Deep layer moisture will be on the increase across all of west central and southwest Florida ahead of an approaching U/L low east of the area. Highest pops on Sunday should remain over the interior and southwest Florida as boundary layer flow will remain weak. Locally heavy rain will again be possible due to the slow storm movement. Early next week, the U/L low will move over the Florida peninsula and there will also be increasing onshore boundary layer flow off of the warm Gulf waters. Deep tropical moisture with PCPW values above 2 inches will advect over the entire forecast area and will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms to all of west central and southwest Florida due to the enhanced large scale lift associated with the U/L low. Locally heavy rain will be possible...and WPC has all of west central and southwest Florida in a marginal (1 out of 5) risk for excessive rainfall both Monday and Tuesday. The U/L low will move over the eastern Gulf on Tuesday and Wednesday with a weak non-tropical area of low pressure possibly developing. This will create deep south to southeast flow over west central and southwest Florida on the east side of this system. This will continue to create favorable conditions for widespread showers/storms each day with locally heavy rain possible each day. Thursday will be another transition day as the area of low pressure moves away from the region...and a more typical summertime easterly flow pattern develops in its wake. This will drop POPs Friday and Saturday back down to around climo levels...with the best chance of rain likely over the coastal counties during the mid/late afternoon each day. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 701 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 VFR conditions currently at the TAF sites this morning. Showers/storms will develop later this afternoon around 19-20z. Based on latest guidance and moisture increasing across the region, included VCTS at all of the terminal sites. Any ongoing convection should come to an end near sunset. && .MARINE... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the weekend with winds and seas below cautionary levels. An area of low pressure may develop over the eastern Gulf early next week which could increase winds and seas to around exercise caution levels. Main hazard through the weekend will be scattered showers/thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas...with most likely timing during the evening and late night/early morning hours. Next week, there will be an increase in the areal coverage of shower/thunderstorm activity as an U/L low moves over the region. This will increase the risk for hazardous conditions for small craft on the waters. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 126 AM EDT Sat Jul 12 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 80 92 79 / 40 20 40 30 FMY 94 77 93 77 / 70 30 70 30 GIF 95 77 94 76 / 50 20 70 30 SRQ 91 77 91 77 / 40 20 40 30 BKV 93 74 92 74 / 40 10 50 30 SPG 90 79 90 78 / 40 20 40 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 8 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Carlisle