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380
FXUS62 KTBW 170848
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
448 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow aloft continues across the region between a deep low over
the Great Lakes and ridging centered over the FL Straits and Cuba.
At the surface, a cold front is located over the central
peninsula moving south. A few showers and an occasional
thunderstorm have been active throughout the overnight period
along and ahead of the front across southern coastal waters and
interior sections, generally moving quickly off to the southeast.
Surface flow has transitioned to west/northwest at most locations
as the front gradually pushes through the region.

High pressure building to the north today will enable northerly flow
across the region and cooler/drier air to make a brief appearance
mainly across northern and central locations with the only
appreciable rain chances confined to southern counties this
afternoon. Highs in the low 80s north to upper 80s south under
partly cloudy skies will make for a pleasant day across central
and southwest Florida ahead of more active weather slated to
arrive beginning Friday.

An area of low pressure that has developed over the southwest Gulf
of Mexico is forecast to move northeast toward the central and
eastern Gulf coast heading into the weekend. The 2 AM EDT Tropical
Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center has given
the disturbance a 70 percent chance of formation over the next 48
hours as it approaches the coast...highlighting the possibility of
heavy rainfall and gusty conditions for affected areas regardless of
development. Although it remains a bit to soon to narrow down
specific impacts for our area, at the very least it appears that
late Friday through early Sunday represents the likeliest time
period of inclement weather affecting the peninsula, and we will
continue to monitor latest developments to assess potential coastal
flooding and severe weather concerns. See hurricanes.gov for the
latest information.

The first half of the weekend will feature increasing southerly flow
with showers and thunderstorms developing and pushing
east/northeast across the region as the area of low pressure moves
across the southeast. Some clearing will likely begin by late
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds over the region in the
wake of the system, and will remain in place through at least the
first few days next week until another trough digs into the
central CONUS allowing another cold front to approach the region
by mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected throughout the period with light/variable
winds across terminals early becoming west-northwest 5 to 7 knots
at coastal sites during afternoon before decreasing back to
light/variable after 00Z. Some shallow ground fog possible at KLAL
from 09-14Z, otherwise no significant impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary across the central peninsula will continue to
sink south across the state today. Northerly flow in its wake
today will gradually shift to southerly by Saturday as a low
pressure system approaches the area into the weekend, with
increasing rain chances as well as winds and seas.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A frontal boundary across the central peninsula will continue to
sink south across the state today. Drier air in its wake will
move into mainly into northern/central locations, but relative
humidity values are expected to remain above critical levels. A
low pressure system will approach the area Friday through the
weekend, bringing increased rain chances. No significant fog is
expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  85  70  83  74 /  10  10  40  40
FMY  88  73  87  76 /  20  10  50  30
GIF  87  70  83  72 /  10  10  40  40
SRQ  87  72  86  75 /  10  10  50  50
BKV  84  65  82  70 /   0  10  40  40
SPG  86  72  84  76 /  10  10  50  50

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard