Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
394 FXUS62 KTBW 011845 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Rather messy pattern setting up for the next several days as upper level troughing sets up along the eastern seaboard with a weakening cool front moving into the southeast states. Global models are still depicting different scenarios with the details of if/where a surface low could develop and how far south the boundary moves, but either way it does look we`ll see periods of showers and thunderstorms moving across the region through at least Friday, potentially through the weekend. At the present time showers and thunderstorms are moving across the coastal waters toward the coast and we are beginning to see the west coast sea breeze get active. Convection will continue to develop and spread inland this afternoon and evening becoming most numerous over the interior. Expect a break in the convection later this evening before more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms develop over the coastal waters and begin to move onshore later tonight into Wednesday morning. For the rest of Wednesday through Friday the rounds of showers and thunderstorms will continue. The exact timing differs with the guidance, but overall it looks a rather wet and gloomy period. Locally heavy rainfall still looks possible with flooding of urban, low lying, and poor drainage areas the main threat. Over the weekend, the 12Z GFS now keeps a weak area of low pressure over the eastern gulf with rounds of precipitation continuing while the 12Z ECMWF moves it off the east coast and would therefore allow some drier air to move into the region limiting overall precipitation coverage. For now have continued with the scattered to numerous PoPs as the final outcome will likely be somewhere in between. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Mainly VFR conditions are expected through early afternoon. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will continue to develop and spreading inland before tapering off later this evening. More convection is expected to develop toward Wednesday morning around the Tampa Bay TAF sites and the rest of the TAF sites by late morning. Southwest winds at 7 to 12 knots this afternoon will become light southerly during this evening, then south to southwest at around 10 knots by late Wednesday morning. However, gusty erratic winds will be possible near any thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 South to southwest flow will remain across the waters through the week with scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms each day. Wind speeds will generally remain less than headline criteria, although daily thunderstorms will produce locally gusty winds and hazardous boating conditions. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 245 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025 Deep moisture will remain over the area, with no humidity concerns. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected each day through the week. Winds will remain less than 15 mph, expect gusty and erratic near thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 78 88 79 87 / 40 80 80 90 FMY 75 91 77 89 / 40 60 50 60 GIF 74 89 76 89 / 40 80 40 80 SRQ 76 88 77 87 / 40 70 80 80 BKV 72 88 74 88 / 40 80 80 80 SPG 78 86 78 85 / 40 70 80 90 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Close