Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
872 FXUS62 KTBW 300809 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 409 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Once again, we are starting the morning with showers and storms moving onshore over the nature coast. Similar to the previous days shower and storm coverage will increase throughout the day with scattered to numerous showers and storms expected. Good news is, thanks to this unsettled pattern of the past few days, any drought conditions should continue to improve. The bad news is, with some areas having multiple rounds of rainfall over the past few days, some localized, minor flooding could occur today and throughout the rest of the week as the rainy pattern continues. Some storms could also have strong, gusty winds and frequent lightning. Later this week, as we head towards the holiday weekend, a frontal boundary is expected to stall off the SE coast. An area of low pressure could develop drawing even more moisture over the area. The NHC has also marked this potential area with a low chance (20%) of forming into a tropical system within the next 7 days. Whether or not this disturbance develops into anything more, heavy rainfall is still likely heading into the weekend as well as deteriorating marine conditions. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Periods of showers and storms will be likely beginning this morning along the coast and spreading inland and south throughout the day. Periods of below VFR could occur with any showers or storms moving through terminals. Conditions begin to clear overnight before starting back up again Tuesday morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 Overall surface wind remain below 10kts today and tomorrow. However multiple rounds of showers and storms will move over the waters, brining increased winds and frequent lightning. As the week continues, marine conditions will continue to deteriorate as a weak frontal boundary stalls, increasing winds and seas and thunderstorm coverage. The risk of rip currents will also increase by midweek. Overall, poor marine conditions as the holiday weekend approaches. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 408 AM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025 No major fire weather concerns through the period as plenty of moisture still remains over the area. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 86 76 86 79 / 70 40 60 40 FMY 89 74 90 76 / 60 30 60 30 GIF 88 73 88 75 / 70 30 70 30 SRQ 87 74 87 76 / 60 40 50 40 BKV 86 70 87 73 / 70 50 70 40 SPG 85 76 85 78 / 70 40 60 40 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Pearce DECISION SUPPORT...Fleming