Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 241933
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
233 PM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Fairly zonal flow exists across much of the eastern half of the
CONUS as an upper-level ridge axis builds into our area from the
west and the surface high slides off the east coast, settling
over the Mid-Atlantic and then meandering further south to off the
east coast of Florida. As this process takes shape, winds at the
surface are shifting from the east to the southeast today, but the
weak pressure gradient means that wind speeds have been light.
The shifting wind direction is allowing the return of more
moisture and warmer air for the next couple days. This combination
is once again providing a favorable setup for fog to develop this
evening, particularly across the land areas. As winds continue to
shift as the axis continues to shift, they will eventually become
southwesterly tomorrow. Once this occurs, the setup will not only
remain favorable for land-based radiation fog, but also for sea
fog to develop across coastal waters. This is likely to be an
issue through mid-week.

As a trough axis propagates out of the Rockies and towards the
eastern half of the United States, an attendant cold front should
move through our area, bringing some change to our weather
conditions for the middle of the work week. Along and ahead of the
front, some showers will be possible, but most of the upper-level
energy should remain well to the north, making it unlikely that
there will be much more than a few showers. Behind the front, some
cooler and drier air will filter in once more for a couple days.
Then as winds begin to shift, moisture and warmer air will begin to
filter back in through the end of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions prevail through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening. Light winds, ample moisture, and cooler temperatures
overnight favor the formation of fog. However, the details on
exactly when and where fog may develop remain fuzzy. Have opted to
mention VCFG and reduced CIGs/VSBYs to MVFR for most terminals, but
confidence is not high enough for mention of any IFR categories yet.
As daytime heating occurs and wind speeds begin to increase
tomorrow, any fog that does develop should clear out by mid-to-late
morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Fog remains the biggest hazard for mariners during the first half of
the week. Conditions do not look highly favorable tonight for sea
fog, given the wind direction. However, some fog that develops over
land could drift over nearshore waters, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte
Harbor. As winds begin to become more southwesterly tomorrow and
through mid-week, conditions become favorable for sea fog to
develop. This will likely remain an issue until the next front
arrives, finally clearing it out. The next front will also bring in
stronger winds that will help to build seas towards
cautionary/advisory levels near the end of the work week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fog remains the biggest hazard for mariners during the first half of
the week. Conditions do not look highly favorable tonight for sea
fog, given the wind direction. However, some fog that develops over
land could drift over nearshore waters, Tampa Bay, and Charlotte
Harbor. As winds begin to become more southwesterly tomorrow and
through mid-week, conditions become favorable for sea fog to
develop. This will likely remain an issue until the next front
arrives, finally clearing it out. The next front will also bring in
stronger winds that will help to build seas towards
cautionary/advisory levels near the end of the work week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  79  64  78 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  63  81  64  82 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  64  82  63  83 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  63  78  64  79 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  59  81  60  80 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  64  75  64  75 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Flannery


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