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515
FXUS62 KTBW 160915
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
515 AM EDT Wed Oct 16 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Westerly flow aloft continues across the region between a
deepening mid/upper-level trough moving across the Great Lakes
and mid/upper-level ridge axis stretching west to east across the
Gulf of Mexico south of the peninsula. At the surface,
south/southeast flow is in place under the influence of weakening
high pressure ridging extending over the area from the western
Atlantic. A quasi-stationary frontal boundary north of the area
stretches west from the Atlantic across parts of the panhandle
into MS/LA.

Flow aloft will gradually strengthen today as the trough passes to
the north, while surface flow veers and increases out the southwest
south of the frontal boundary. Widespread cloudiness associated with
the front will continue to overspread much of the forecast area
throughout the day with showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting
northern/central coastal waters and the Nature Coast early before
moving south into central and southern sections while diminishing in
coverage over the course of the afternoon and evening hours as the
front slowly sags south into peninsula.

Surface flow will veer to northerly behind the boundary Thursday
into Friday allowing a short-lived intrusion of cooler and drier air
into the area. Flow will begin transitioning back to southeast
during the day Friday as high pressure builds to the northeast and
an area of low pressure develops over the western/central Gulf in
response to shortwave energy moving across the southeast. Guidance
has come into a bit better agreement in tracking the system
northeast toward the central Gulf coast Friday into Saturday with
a plume of tropical moisture likely spreading northeast on its
eastern flank. The eastern extent of both the eventual track and
moisture shield will determine local impacts for the weekend,
which for now remain increased likelihoods of cloudy conditions
and showers and storms Saturday into Sunday.

High pressure looks to build across the peninsula early next week
south of the remnant boundary across the southeast with lingering
moisture likely leading isolated showers before another mid/upper-
level trough digs southeast across the Central Plains and drives
another frontal system into the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected across terminals throughout period except
MVFR cigs possible through around 13Z at KPGD, KFMY and KRSW.
Light southeast flow becoming southwest by 09Z at northern
sites/14Z at southern sites, increasing to 10 to 14 knots by
16-17Z...with gusts 18 to 22 knots at northern sites...decreasing
to 5 knots or less after 02Z. VCSH likely after 16Z for northern
sites before diminishing between 00-03Z. Otherwise, no significant
impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
Southwest flow increasing 10 to 15 knots today ahead of a frontal
boundary near the panhandle with showers and thunderstorms
affecting much of the northern and central waters. Flow gradually
shifts/weakens to northerly 5 to 10 knots Thursday into Friday
before shifting/increasing to southeast 10 to 15 knots with higher
gusts during weekend. Seas generally 2 to 3 feet or less through
Friday increasing to near cautionary levels during the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Combination of high pressure to the east and a frontal boundary
over the panhandle will lead to increasing southwest flow today
with showers and a few thunderstorms across mainly northern and
central locations. Northerly flow behind the front Thursday into
Friday will allow drier air to filter into region...with lowest RH
values across parts of the Nature Coast...but remaining above
critical thresholds. Southeast flow returns for the weekend with
increasing rain chances keeping RH values well above critical
thresholds for the remainder of the period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  87  74  84  68 /  40  30  10  10
FMY  88  75  88  72 /  10  40  30  10
GIF  89  73  87  67 /  30  10  20  10
SRQ  88  75  87  70 /  20  30  20  10
BKV  88  69  84  63 /  60  20  10  10
SPG  88  75  85  70 /  40  30  10  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Hubbard