Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
816 FXUS62 KTBW 071212 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 812 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... The pattern aloft this morning features a low over the central Gulf and high pressure to the east of Florida. At the surface, a southwest flow continues with the Atlantic ridge axis stretching back over the state. With this pattern in place, we have seen some showers over the Gulf moving over coastal areas early this morning and this trend is expected to continue through the morning hours before shifting inland this afternoon and evening. A typical summertime pattern then continues for the rest of the week, though we do get some increased moisture from the south for Thursday through the weekend, helping increase rainfall coverage. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 806 AM EDT Mon Jul 7 2025 Southwesterly flow will keep most of the shower activity away from the west coast this afternoon and evening. Because of this I have taken VCTS out of PIE, TPA and SRQ. Winds will remain out of the south and southwest today at or below 10 knots outside of thunderstorms. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below headlines for the next several days. Daily showers and storms are expected and will produce briefly higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 91 79 91 78 / 20 10 40 20 FMY 92 76 94 76 / 40 20 60 30 GIF 92 75 93 75 / 40 10 50 20 SRQ 90 77 91 76 / 20 10 40 20 BKV 90 73 91 72 / 20 0 40 20 SPG 87 79 89 78 / 20 10 30 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Tuesday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce