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725
FXUS62 KTBW 151326
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
926 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019

.UPDATE...
Some mid/high clouds moving across the region this morning with
light southeast winds. High pressure will hold on today with a
stalled out front remaining to our north. A few showers/storms
will be possible over the northern waters into Levy county during
this afternoon and evening, otherwise partly to mostly sunny
skies and warm weather will continue. Low level flow will remain
light enough to allow the west coast sea breeze to move inland
this afternoon helping to keep coastal areas in the mid 80s while
inland locations climb to near 90. Overall forecast is on track
and only made some minor adjustments to rain chances far north.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the period with southeast
winds at 5 to 8 knots shifting to southwest at 7 to 10 knots this
afternoon at all TAF sites except LAL. Winds will then decrease to
5 knots or less from the south after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure stretching across the peninsula continues east to
southeast winds and slight seas today before shifting/increasing
to southwest at 10 to 15 knots Wednesday ahead of an approaching
cold front with showers and storms possible. Flow diminishes
slightly and becomes northerly Thursday before gradually shifting
to east to southeast Friday and increasing Saturday. Seas will
generally be 3 feet or less with a light to moderate chop on bay
and inland waters.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 443 AM EDT Tue Oct 15 2019/

DISCUSSION...
High pressure aloft and at the surface continues to influence
conditions across the region with generally partly cloudy skies
and variable to light easterly flow. Shower activity has affected
a few southern offshore locations overnight although nothing
widespread. More of the same can be expected over the next 24
hours with a gradual increase in westerly flow aloft as the upper
ridge retreats south in response to a deep closed low moving
across the Great Lakes region. Surface flow will become
southwesterly Wednesday as the surface ridge weakens and moves
east into the Atlantic in advance of an approaching front sinking
into the region associated with a developing low pressure system
off the Mid-Atlantic coast.

Wednesday will feature more in the way of cloudiness and rain
chances as southwesterly flow aids moisture transport across the
region ahead of the approaching frontal boundary. Greatest rain
chances currently appear likely extending from the Nature Coast
south to central interior and southwest coastal sections. As the
Mid-Atlantic system deepens and lifts northeast Thursday, high
pressure building across the Ohio Valley in its wake will force
the frontal boundary south thru the remainder of the peninsula
allowing somewhat cooler and drier air to begin filtering into the
region under northerly flow.

It appears Friday will be relatively close to average, temperature-
wise, with increasing cloud cover as northerly surface flow
gradually transitions to easterly while southwest flow aloft
strengthens out ahead of a shortwave progressing east across the
northern Gulf coast. A weak surface trough/area of low pressure is
expected to develop over the southwest Gulf Friday into Saturday
in response to the shortwave energy and ride northeast toward the
central Gulf coast and FL panhandle throughout the day Saturday,
shifting winds across the peninsula to south/southeast as
moisture again increases across the region and lingers through the
weekend along with the return of above normal temps. Ridging
aloft builds across the region and into the western Atlantic early
next week...with the surface ridge displaced a bit further out in
the Atlantic, allowing continued south/southeast flow across the
state until another front approaches heading into mid-week.

FIRE WEATHER...
Humidity values expected to remain above critical thresholds
throughout the period. High pressure to the east responsible for
light east/southeast flow will give way to an approaching frontal
system and increasing rain chances Wednesday with west/southwest
flow...gradually shifting to south/southeast during the weekend.
RH values will drop behind the front Thursday and Friday but will
recover over the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  88  75  86  74 /  10  60  50  20
FMY  89  73  88  75 /   0  10  10  20
GIF  89  72  88  72 /   0  20  30  10
SRQ  88  75  88  75 /   0  40  30  30
BKV  88  71  87  70 /   0  60  60  20
SPG  87  76  88  75 /   0  50  50  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Close
PREV DISCUSSION...Hurt
UPPER AIR...Davis
DECISION SUPPORT...Carlisle