Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
723 FXUS62 KTBW 091218 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 818 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New AVIATION... .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1154 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 An U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. An inverted trough/U/L low will track across the peninsula early/middle of next week likely enhancing convection across the region. At the surface, weak high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. This flow promotes highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida each day. The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland during the day with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the late afternoon/early evening hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light east/northeast flow. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing shower/thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon. Only exception is this morning where an outflow boundary across north Florida will create higher pops across the extreme northern forecast area as it sags south close to Levy county with a chance of showers and storms. Otherwise, a wedge of drier air aloft combined with onshore flow on the north side of the ridge axis will likely keep pops on the low side across the nature coast through Saturday. On Sunday, increasing deep layer moisture along with the approach of the U/L inverted trough from the east will increase pops across west central and southwest Florida. Highest pops should remain over the interior and southwest Florida. Early next week, increasing south to southwest boundary layer flow combined with the U/L low aloft and deep tropical moisture advecting over the forecast area will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms Monday and Tuesday to the entire region. This could potentially carry over into Wednesday...however the U/L low may push far enough west of the forecast area on Wednesday for drier air aloft to advect over the Florida peninsula from the east which would decrease pops across the region. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 814 AM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Neutral flow today will result in much of our thunderstorm activity happening inland and in southwest Florida. Small chance for storms will still be around for TPA, PIE, and SRQ but to low to add into TAFs. Winds will generally stay below 10 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1154 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 High pressure will hold over the waters through the forecast period with winds and seas below cautionary levels. Main hazard will be scattered showers/thunderstorms which will be capable of producing locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 1154 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 No fire weather hazards are expected as sufficient moisture will keep minimum afternoon relative humidity values well above critical levels. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 92 79 / 30 20 30 20 FMY 94 76 94 76 / 50 40 60 20 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 40 40 40 10 SRQ 93 76 91 76 / 30 20 20 20 BKV 92 73 92 72 / 30 20 30 10 SPG 90 78 89 78 / 30 20 20 20 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Wednesday: 8 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce