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000
FXUS62 KTBW 231312
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
812 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

.UPDATE...
Widespread fog, some rather dense, has setup from around the
Interstate 4 corridor southward early this morning, including much
of the Tampa Bay waters. Conditions will begin to improve later
this morning, but a weak cold front drifting south into the region
will lead to abundant clouds and chance of showers from around
the Interstate 4 corridor northward. Further south partly to
mostly sunny skies will return this afternoon. Temperatures will
climb into the upper 60s north to upper 70s south this afternoon.
Have tweaked rain chances up slightly for today, otherwise
remainder of forecast looks ok at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
Dense fog will gradually lift and dissipate later this morning
with some areas of MVFR ceilings persisting around the Tampa Bay
and Interstate 4 corridor northward into tonight. Mainly VFR
conditions are expected to return from KSRQ southward this
afternoon into early tonight. Late tonight another round of IFR
ceilings and visibilities is expected across the entire area.
Winds will remain rather light and variable around the Tampa Bay
area and Interstate 4 corridor, but become westerly at 5 to 9
knots from around KSRQ southward this afternoon. Winds will shift
to light northeast across the entire area during this evening and
overnight.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 241 AM EST Sat Jan 23 2021/

DISCUSSION...
I am not seeing any indication of sea fog, but clouds over the
northern waters is making detection difficult. There is no
indications on webcams, but then again it is hard to see anything
on webcams pointed out over the ocean at night. Radiation fog
however is widespread on sat pix from the Hillsborough and Polk
county lines southward. Venice on the pier has reduced vsby, but
it has had it all night and all last night and the webcam from the
inlet, which has good lighting has very good vsby.

There are a few showers over northern Levy this morning. Models
have these showers continuing into the morning maybe producing
measurable rain.

The story for the next few days is a building deep layer ridge
bringing unseasonably warm temperatures inland with seasonable
temperatures near the coast because of the seabreeze. This will
continue until Thursday when the trough over the Western States
kick out eastward producing a pretty good snowstorm across the
Ohio Valley and Mid Atlantic States.

For us this looks like kind of a non event, maybe a few showers.
Thursday morning wind will have too much of a component off the
water for it to get very cold plus the front will just be moving
through so not much advection. The system moves east rapidly with
the axis of strongest cold advection well east of the state by
Friday morning, however models have flip flopped with this a
little. For now it looks like it will cool down to near seasonal
temperatures and then start warming by the following week.

MARINE...
A few more days of light winds and calm seas. Expect stronger
winds and choppy seas near the coast in the afternoon with the
sea breeze.

FIRE WEATHER...
High humidities and poor dispersion today. Dispersion gets a
little better tomorrow.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  74  60  77  63 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  78  60  80  62 /  10   0   0   0
GIF  74  60  78  62 /  20   0   0   0
SRQ  75  60  78  62 /  10   0   0   0
BKV  72  56  77  58 /  40   0   0   0
SPG  72  61  74  64 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-DeSoto-Hardee-Highlands-Inland Charlotte-
     Inland Hillsborough-Inland Lee-Inland Manatee-Inland
     Sarasota-Pinellas-Polk.

Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for
     Tampa Bay waters.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Close
PREV DISCUSSION...Sobien
UPPER AIR/DECISION SUPPORT...Flannery