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000
FXUS62 KTBW 170724
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 AM EST Fri Jan 17 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Significant U/L pattern change as the persistent strong U/L ridge
over the Gulf of Mexico and Florida will be ejected east as an
U/L trough digs over the eastern U.S. over the weekend and into
early next week.

At the surface, a backdoor cold front will push across the
forecast area early this morning with high pressure along the mid
Atlantic coast building over the region in the wake of the front
with increasing east to northeast winds. Drier air will advect
across the region however temperatures will continue to run
several degrees above climatic normals.

An area of low pressure will move across the Great Lakes on
Saturday with an associated cold front approaching north Florida
Saturday night. The cold front will push slowly southeast across
the Florida peninsula Sunday and Sunday night with an increasing
chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms...with the
highest pops over the nature coast. Canadian high pressure will
build over the southeast U.S. and Florida in the wake of the
front with much colder drier air advecting across the region
Monday and Tuesday. Ideal conditions for cold air drainage flow
down the peninsula will develop Monday night with freezing
temperatures possible across portions of the nature coast...and
mid to upper 30s possible in colder interior locations of the
central forecast area. Still a bit of wind could cause even lower
wind chill values.

Sunny and rather cold Tuesday with highs only expected to be in
the lower/mid 50s north...upper 50s to lower 60s central...and mid
60s south. Gradient expected to weaken Tuesday night with
radiational cooling allowing overnight temperatures to drop again near
or below freezing across the nature coast...with generally in the
upper 30s to lower 40s central...and lower to mid 40s south.
Boundary layer winds will be veering a bit more northeast off the
Atlantic and will begin modification process of airmass...with
warmer temperatures on Wednesday...however highs will still be in
the 60s north and central to around 70 south.

&&

.AVIATION...
IFR CIGS 004-008 possible early this morning at TPA/PIE/SRQ...and
possibly vcnty LAL. Predominately VFR conditions will prevail on
Friday with SCT 030-040 and SCT-BKN 250.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory today through early Saturday morning over
the outer waters with exercise caution conditions likely elsewhere.
Gradient will weaken on Saturday. However a cold front will push
across the waters Sunday night and Monday with increasing north
winds with advisory conditions possible through Tuesday night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  60  78  63 /   0   0   0  10
FMY  79  60  78  62 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  77  59  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  80  60  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  77  55  78  59 /   0   0   0  20
SPG  77  60  78  64 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST Saturday for Waters from
     Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters from
     Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
UPPER AIR...99
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming