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000
FXUS62 KTBW 181743
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
1243 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridging across the area will continue to weaken as
the center shifts east to over the Atlantic and a cold front
approaches from the NW. Winds will continue to diminish from the
SE/S and become light overnight. The front will move through the
area Sunday/Sunday night bringing showers and a few storms with
it. A secondary dry reinforcing front moves through the area
Monday night. Colder and drier air moves into the area behind it
as high pressure builds through mid-week. Tuesday and Wednesday
mornings will see temperatures in the mid 30s Nature Coast and
upper 30s inland to mid 40s coast central and south. Highs Monday
will generally be in the 60s. Tuesday highs in the mid 50s to
lower 60s, and in the 60s again for Wednesday afternoon. The warm-
up continues from there through the rest of the week as high
pressure continues to ridge across the area from the north, but an
upper through over the Gulf Stream forms a weak trough at the
surface just offshore of the FL east coast, and keeps winds
elevated through Thursday. That moves off to the northeast
Thursday night as an upper disturbance moves across the northern
Gulf waters Friday and Saturday, causing a trough to form over the
waters and lifting moisture and instability over the state for
Friday night and Saturday. Will be monitoring this feature as it
will likely evolve in the coming days, but have introduced pops
for the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the overnight hours. SE winds
will be diminishing through the afternoon and become light after
sunset. S/SE flow will be in place Sunday morning, with some
showers possible at the northern terminals through the end of the
period possibly causing some MVFR conditions.

&&

.MARINE...
A cold front will be approaching the area tonight, then move
through the waters Sunday and Sunday night bringing some showers
and a few thunderstorms with it. Winds will increase to likely
advisory levels behind the front and remain elevated through at
least Wednesday as the pressure gradient remains tight with a
trough over the Gulf Stream.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No concerns through Sunday. A cold front will move through the
area Sunday/Sunday night, with cooler and drier air moving in as
high pressure builds behind it. Humidities will approach critical
values for Monday and Tuesday afternoons.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  64  74  49  62 /  10  50  30  10
FMY  63  81  58  69 /   0  20  20  20
GIF  62  76  49  63 /   0  50  30  10
SRQ  65  76  52  64 /   0  50  30  10
BKV  62  74  44  61 /  10  60  20  10
SPG  65  75  51  63 /   0  50  30  10

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close