Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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700
FXUS62 KTBW 190105
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
805 PM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.UPDATE...
Latest surface analysis and satellite imagery depict cold front
stretching southwest across Ohio/Lower Mississippi Valley regions
into northwest Gulf Coast region. High pressure ridging across
Florida will retreat into the western Atlantic as cloudiness and
showers along with a few embedded thunderstorms affect the state
Sunday into Sunday night as the front pushes across the region.

For tonight, light southeast flow continues across the peninsula
as overnight lows drop into the upper 50s to lower 60s under
partly cloudy skies, with cloud cover increasing by early morning
from the northwest. Winds shift to southwest ahead of the
approaching frontal boundary by Sunday afternoon with rain chances
increasing from north to south across the peninsula. Limited
instability and mid/upper-level support should keep thunderstorm
development mostly in check although rainfall amounts around a
quarter of an inch or so are possible, particularly across parts
of the Nature Coast. Sunday afternoon highs will range from the
low 70s north to around 80 south, with a much cooler air mass
beginning to filter into the peninsula behind the cold front late
Sunday into Monday as high pressure builds into the region.

No adjustments necessary to existing forecast package.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR expected through around 15Z, then MVFR CIGs are likely from
KSRQ north as frontal boundary pushes south across terminals along
with VCSH. Light southeast winds gradually shift/increase to
south/southwest by 15Z, shifting further to west/northwest at
northern terminals after 21Z.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  62  74  50  62 /   0  50  20   0
FMY  62  80  58  68 /   0  10  20  10
GIF  60  76  50  62 /   0  50  20   0
SRQ  61  78  52  64 /   0  50  20   0
BKV  57  74  44  61 /  10  50  10   0
SPG  64  74  51  60 /   0  50  20   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION...Hurt
UPPER AIR...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...Sobien



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