Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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662
FXUS62 KTBW 172359
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
759 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.UPDATE...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico
will be the main driver of the weather through the weekend, as it
rapidly moves northeast towards the Florida Panhandle. Due to how
quickly the storm is forecast to move, the Storm Surge Watch along
the Nature Coast was upgraded to a Storm Surge Warning earlier
this afternoon. Otherwise, the main concerns remain flooding rains
and gusty winds along the Nature Coast, and the potential for
isolated tornadoes across the area. While quiet conditions are
forecast for land areas through the overnight period tonight,
conditions will rapidly deteriorate on Friday, with showers and
storms moving into the area and winds increasing late Friday and
into Saturday.

The forecast looks on track overall and no significant changes are
planned for the evening update.

&&

.AVIATION...
Generally VFR conditions should hold overnight. Showers and a few
storms are expected to start to move onshore by mid morning
Friday, with chances of thunderstorms increasing through the
afternoon and evening. MVFR ceilings will also become likely by
late afternoon, mainly around KTPA, KPIE, KLAL, and KSRQ.

&&

.MARINE...
Showers and storms will begin to push east into the coastal waters
tonight and then increase in coverage and intensity on Friday ahead
of Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 moving northeast towards the
Florida Panhandle. Winds and seas will rapidly increase Friday and
Saturday, with tropical storm or gale conditions expected. Winds
and seas will subside again Saturday night and Sunday as the storm
system lifts northeast and moves away from the area.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  83  74  85 /  10  70  60  70
FMY  74  87  77  85 /  10  40  40  60
GIF  70  83  73  85 /   0  60  50  60
SRQ  72  87  76  87 /  10  70  70  70
BKV  66  82  71  85 /  10  60  60  70
SPG  73  85  76  86 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

Fleming



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