Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
245 FXUS62 KTBW 071106 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 706 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Easterly flow continues with a more typical summertime pattern with mainly afternoon and evening thunderstorms each day through the end of the week and into the weekend. - Slightly below to near seasonal temperatures expected through the week and into the weekend. - Tropics remain quiet over the next 7 days. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 649 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Easterly flow continues today with VFR conditions continuing until storms make their way westward this afternoon and evening. Best chances are marked by TEMPO groups, with gusts to 30 knots or higher possible again today. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 Easterly flow will continue over the area as upper ridging and surface high pressure between Bermuda and the Carolinas ridges west- southwest across the southeast U.S., northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf. A tropical easterly wave on the southern periphery of the ridge will traverse westward today bringing numerous to widespread showers and storms to most of the area this afternoon/evening. These showers and storms will be traversing from east to west with the highest coverage over the central and western part of the state this afternoon/evening. Similar to what we saw on Thursday, some of these showers and storms could produce some heavy rainfall in the 2-3 inches range. Over the weekend, broad upper ridging and surface high pressure located between Bermuda and the Carolinas continues to dominate the weather pattern over Florida. Numerous to widespread showers and storms expected on Saturday, then scattered to numerous showers and storms on Sunday. By Monday, the upper ridge and surface high pressure will nudge slightly southward between Bermuda and the Bahamas. A continued east- southeast wind flow will persist through the first half of next week. Some slightly drier air will move into the region with PWAT values between 1.7 - 2.0 inches expected. This will bring slightly lower rain and storm chances, but still enough for scattered showers and isolated storms developing each afternoon. The ridge axis will shift further south over south Florida for the latter part of next week, bringing a shift in winds to a southwest through westerly direction. Temperatures and heat indices are expected to stay below advisory criteria through the period with daytime temperatures topping out in the upper 80s to mid 90s and overnight lows in the mid to upper 70s. && .MARINE... Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 High pressure ridging across northern Florida and into the northeastern Gulf will produce a predominant northeast through southeast wind flow over the coastal waters. Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected each day with the highest chances during the late afternoon and evening hours. Showers and storms will be moving in a general east to west direction. Outside of showers and storms, winds will generally remain less than 15 knots and seas 2 feet or less. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 220 AM EDT Fri Aug 7 2026 A northeast to southeast wind flow will continue through the end of the week and into the weekend. Abundant moisture will remain across the region allowing for a more typical summertime weather pattern with scattered to numerous mainly afternoon and evening showers and thunderstorms each day. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical levels and winds will be less than 15 mph, except gusty and erratic near showers and thunderstorms. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 76 89 77 / 70 30 70 30 FMY 91 76 92 76 / 70 30 80 10 GIF 88 76 91 76 / 70 20 70 30 SRQ 91 74 90 75 / 70 30 60 30 BKV 89 73 91 73 / 70 20 80 30 SPG 89 77 88 77 / 70 30 60 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 3 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Saturday: 7 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$