Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
864 FXUS62 KTBW 031113 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 713 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Showers and storms over the Gulf waters have started to move inland across the CWA. Meanwhile, an upper level trough and surface low pressure remain over the peninsula. This is keeping southwesterly winds over the state and pulling ample moisture, which is supporting the current activity. Given the multiple days of rainfall and the training of storms today could bring the potential for isolated minor flooding. Additionally, the widespread cloud coverage will keep afternoon highs from getting above the upper 80s today and on Friday. The aforementioned U/L trough should begin to move north to northeast but PWs over 2 inches remain in place, which will continue to support period of showers. && .LONG TERM (SAT-WED)... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 During the weekend, moisture remains fairly high with guidance keeping POPs high. Later into next week, drier air gradually starts to wrap into the area as the low lifts out, allowing coverage of rain to regulate. However, southwesterly winds will keep scattered to numerous showers and storms shifting onshore in the late morning and early afternoon, building into the interior through early evening. Temperatures will also increase gradually getting back into the 90s area-wide. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 708 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 VFR conditions currently across the terminals this morning. There are numerous showers/storms that are moving onshore in the Tampa area. Therefore, have included VCTS in the TAFs for TPA/PIE/SRQ from the beginning of the period. This activity will continue to move onshore with VCTS later in the day at the remainder of the TAF sites. For now, have continued with VFR conditions throughout the TAF cycle but any storm will produce temporary periods of MVFR to IFR conditions. Will monitor TAFs throughout the day and make any necessary amendments. && .MARINE... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Southwesterly winds between 10 to 15 knots remain in place for the remainder of the week before calming down to 5 to 10 knots over the weekend. A stalled out front over the area will help to enhance shower and thunderstorm development for the period. Higher waves and winds are possible near storms. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 415 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025 Ample moisture remains over fire districts as area of low pressure moves over the state supporting periods of showers and storms through the period. Therefore, no fire weather concerns are anticipated during this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 88 78 89 77 / 90 60 90 60 FMY 86 76 89 76 / 90 70 80 50 GIF 87 75 88 75 / 90 50 90 30 SRQ 87 77 89 76 / 90 70 90 60 BKV 88 73 90 72 / 90 50 90 40 SPG 85 78 87 77 / 90 70 90 70 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 4 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 4 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Anderson DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Shiveley