Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 171814
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
214 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure ridges over southern Florida, while a frontal boundary
extends across northern Florida. Models show this front dissipating
and slowly drifting south over the next 24 hours. Rain chances will
be on the low side today with near average temperatures in the mid
80`s. The big weather story over the next 48 hours will be with
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 located over the southwest Gulf of
Mexico. This storm will move northeast through the Gulf of Mexico
over the next 24-48 hours and will bring increasing rain chances and
gusty winds late Friday through Saturday. The latest advisory has
the storm making landfall over the Florida panhandle late Friday/early
Saturday morning, then quickly moving out of the area by Sunday
allowing for high pressure to build into the region. This pattern
will remain until next Tuesday when another frontal boundary
approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions expected through the period. Winds will remain onshore
around 5-8 knots this afternoon, then becoming light and variable
after 03Z. Will hold VCSH at all terminal except KLAL after 15Z
Friday morning. No other aviation impacts expected.

&&

.MARINE...
High pressure ridges across southern Florida while a weakening front
extends across northern Florida. Winds remain light at 10 knots or
less through the next 24 hours. Winds and seas will begin to
increase on Friday afternoon as Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 moves
northeast toward the Florida Panhandle. Impacts from this system will
be gusty winds near gale force, building seas to 9-13 feet,
possible waterspouts and frequent lightning. Mariners should keep
a close eye on the weather if planning to be in the Gulf of Mexico
over the next 24-72 hours. High pressure will build back into the
area by Sunday with benign weather conditions expected through
the middle of next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next several days as
relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  71  83  74  85 /  10  70  60  70
FMY  74  87  77  85 /  10  40  40  60
GIF  70  83  73  85 /   0  60  50  60
SRQ  72  87  76  87 /  10  70  70  70
BKV  66  82  71  85 /  10  60  60  70
SPG  73  85  76  86 /  10  70  70  70

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Tropical Storm Watch for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...74/Wynn
DECISION SUPPORT...05/Carlisle


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