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000
FXUS62 KTBW 191800
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
100 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020

.DISCUSSION...
Pre-frontal showers are in place across the area, with the front
itself still back near the FL Big Bend region. The front will
continue to push southeast through the area tonight, with showers
and maybe a storm with it. A secondary dry reinforcing front moves
through the area Monday/Monday night. Colder and drier air moves
into the area behind it as high pressure builds. High pressure
continues to ridge across the area from the north, but an upper
trough over the Gulf Stream forms a weak trough at the surface
just offshore of the FL east coast, and will keep winds elevated
through Wednesday night.

Tuesday and Wednesday mornings will see temperatures in the lower
to mid 30s Nature Coast and mid to upper 30s inland to lower to
mid 40s coast central and south. Highs will be in the mid to upper
50s to lower to mid 60s Monday through Wednesday afternoons. In
addition to the possible freezing conditions across the extreme
northern zones, will also need to monitor wind chills across the
area through this time frame, as winds will remain elevated and
bring feels-like temperatures into the mid 20s north to mid 30s
south.

Conditions then warm up from there through the rest of the week
as the east coast trough moves off to the northeast and an upper
disturbance moves across the northern Gulf waters. This will
cause a surface trough to form over the northern Gulf waters and
lift moisture and instability over the state for Friday and
push a front through the area Saturday/Saturday night. High
pressure will then be in place through the rest of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
Some pre-frontal showers may cause some periodic MVFR conditions
this afternoon, then MVFR ceilings are expected with the frontal
passage this evening through tonight, as well as additional
showers possible. Winds turn to the N/NW behind the front, and
ceilings improve through the rest of the period.

&&

.MARINE...
SCA conditions will be in place for the northern and central
waters this evening through Monday morning as strong winds move
in behind the cold front. The winds will briefly subside Monday
afternoon, but SCA conditions are expected to return later Monday
and continue through likely Wednesday with high pressure in place
over the waters but a developing trough in place over the Gulf
Stream keeping the pressure gradient tight. Conditions then relax
for a bit once the trough moves off to the NE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Cooler and drier air will be moving into the area behind a front
and causing some near-critical humidities for Monday through
Wednesday afternoons.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  48  60  42  57 /  20   0   0   0
FMY  56  67  45  62 /  30   0   0   0
GIF  48  62  41  57 /  30   0   0   0
SRQ  51  63  44  60 /  30   0   0   0
BKV  42  60  36  56 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  50  61  44  58 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for Coastal waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 NM-Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River
     FL out 20 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out
     20 to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
DECISION SUPPORT...69/Close