Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
479 FXUS62 KTBW 061753 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 153 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 .DISCUSSION... The upper low has moved further west into the Gulf today while TD Chantal and remnants move through the Carolinas with the local area between these features. The latest surface analysis continues to indicate a weak boundary remains stretched across the I-4 corridor with generally light-moderate SW flow over the Peninsula. Most of the area is fairly rain free early this afternoon since earlier outflows pushed well inland much sooner than typical Gulf seabreeze. But, the area remains in a very moist airmass and unstable environment during additional diurnal heating, so expect additional WNW moving showers and thunderstorms through the late afternoon and evening hours. Then with typical regime 5 expected E Gulf convection to redevelop overnight as the warm and humid conditions continue. SW flow through Monday before transitioning to more typical summertime pattern as the Bermuda high pressure ridge axis builds back over and meanders over the FL Peninsula mid-late week and into next weekend with afternoon and evening thunderstorm patterns and warm near normal temps. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) A moist and unstable WSW flow continues to support convection developing at really anytime over the next day, necessitating long periods of VCSH/VCTS. For the most part, this should be more showers rather than TSTMs at the coast; but there will be daytime windows where thunderstorms remain possible everywhere. A break in most convection is likely this evening before the potential increases again towards morning. By tomorrow afternoon, the best potential will shift inland, with lower confidence in impacts at coastal terminals. && .MARINE... Southwesterly flow will continue through Monday then weak high pressure will build over the Central Gulf with generally light winds and slight seas through the week. Expect daily summertime showers and storms to produce brief gusty winds that will increase choppy seas in and near convection. && .FIRE WEATHER... Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue through the week with seabreezes along with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 79 91 79 91 / 20 30 10 30 FMY 78 93 77 93 / 10 50 10 60 GIF 76 92 76 93 / 20 50 10 50 SRQ 78 90 77 91 / 20 30 10 30 BKV 73 91 73 91 / 20 40 0 40 SPG 79 88 78 88 / 20 30 10 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ Davis/Flannery