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000
FXUS62 KTBW 211134
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
634 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2021

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 227 AM EST Thu Jan 21 2021/

DISCUSSION...
A weak deep layer ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico will
flatten into zonal flow by the weekend, then a stronger ridge
builds over Florida early next week. At the surface a weak ridge
over the state will drift east and then be replaced with a
stronger ridge north of the state by the weekend. Temperatures
continue to rise with 1000-500 thicknesses increasing to over
5700m early next week ahead of the next front. That will translate
to 80ish degree temperatures in areas away from the chilly water.
Toward the end of next week and the end of the forecast period
there will be another shot of cold advection but all models seem
to agree that the axis of the advection will be just east of the
state and we will see some cooling on the backside of the digging
through, bringing more seasonal or a little below seasonal
temperatures but no where near as cold as it could have been if
the axis of cold advection was a few hundred miles west.

It appears most of the rain will stay north of almost all of our
area with the front mid to late of next week. Conditions do look
favorable for radiation fog this weekend and perhaps some sea fog
Saturday morning. Sea fog looks like a better bet for Tuesday
morning near Tampa Bay and Wednesday Morning in the Big Bend and
then ahead of the front further down the coast Wednesday
Night.

AVIATION...

VFR conditions and light winds through the forecast period.

MARINE...

Excellent boating conditions the next few days. Winds will be
light, temperatures while cooler in near the water will be
seasonably warm.

FIRE WEATHER...

One more day of good burning with low relative humidities and
average mixing/dispersion, a little lower near the coast. Moisture
will return, Friday through the weekend.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  72  57  73  61 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  75  56  75  60 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  76  54  76  60 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  72  56  73  61 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  72  52  73  57 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  70  58  71  62 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...05/Carlisle
Previous Discussion...Sobien