Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 161924

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
224 PM EST Thu Jan 16 2020

A broad west to east upper level ridge remains over the southern
Gulf of Mexico and the Florida peninsula with the associated surface
high pressure center in the northeast Gulf of Mexico. This will keep
mostly rain-free conditions and warm weather across west central and
southwest Florida today. Farther north, an area of low pressure over
New England extends a cold front through the western Atlantic then
westward through Georgia. This weak front moves through the Florida
peninsula later tonight through Friday with only a slight chance of
showers over southern Florida. High pressure moves northeast of
Florida on Saturday as the front pushes south of Florida allowing
for a pleasant day with a warm southeast wind across the region.

The upper ridge shifts slightly to the southeast over the Greater
Antilles by late Saturday into Sunday. This will begin the
transition period of the warm weather pattern that has been parked
over the southeast for the past week. Broad troughing will set up
over the eastern half of the U.S. by Monday next week. The trough
axis is currently expected to move off the east coast sometime on
Tuesday. Strong mid-upper level NW winds will help advect some much
colder and drier air to the southeast U.S.

By late Saturday night, another area of low pressure moves through
the Great Lakes region. The associated front extends southwest and
will move into the area late Saturday into Sunday bringing a good
chance of showers with the highest coverage from Tampa Bay
northward. The exact timing could change a bit before then, but
models have come into better agreement with this front exiting south
Florida late Monday evening. That is when the cool down begins as a
strong cold high pressure center (around 1040-1045 MB) over Canada
moves southeast toward the central U.S. The high is expected to move
farther east-southeast and will be located over the mid-Atlantic
states by the middle of the week. This high will be key in advecting
some much colder and drier air into the southeast U.S. and into
Florida. The cool down will bring daytime highs to the mid 60`s to
low 70`s on Monday and mid 50`s to low 60`s on Tuesday and Wednesday
next week. The coldest nights will be Monday through Wednesday with
temps dropping in the 30`s and 40`s. Some freezing temps will also
be possible on Tuesday and Wednesday night over the inland portions
of the northern counties.


VFR conditions are expected to persist with winds less than 10
knots. No other aviation impacts expected.


A weak front moves through later tonight and on Friday with very
little rainfall expected. This will bring a tightened pressure
gradient between this front and strong high pressure to the north,
which will bring increasing north-northeast winds late tonight and
continuing through Saturday morning. This has warranted the issuance
of a SCA for the offshore waters and SCEC for the waters closer to
the coast. Conditions slightly improve by Saturday afternoon with a
brief period of pleasant weather before the next cold front moves in
late Saturday into Sunday. Gusty northerly winds can be expected in
the wake of this front with SCA conditions likely starting late
Monday through the middle of next week.


Abundant moisture and light winds will preclude any red flag
concerns through the end of the week and into the weekend. A cold
front moves in on Sunday with increasing rain chances. Drier and
cooler air will filter into the area in the wake of this front, but
RH values are expected to remain greater than 35 percent. The only
other concern will be with areas of dense fog during the early
morning hours for the next couple of days.


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  65  77  62  79 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  65  78  62  79 /   0  20   0   0
GIF  65  76  61  78 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  65  79  62  80 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  62  77  57  79 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  65  78  62  79 /   0   0   0   0


Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Friday to 10 AM EST Saturday for
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

     Dense Fog Advisory until midnight EST tonight for Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM.



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