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098
FXUS62 KTBW 180802
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
402 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2019

.DISCUSSION...
Potential Tropical Cyclone 16 will lift NE across the Gulf of
Mexico towards the Florida Panhandle through early Saturday, with
rain and winds from the system impacting the area through the
weekend. Tropical Storm Warning will continue for coastal Levy
county and the northern coastal waters, with a Storm Surge Warning
in place from Clearwater Beach north. Have also added a Small
Craft Advisory, effective at 20z/4PM, for the rest of the coastal
waters as winds and seas will be increasing through the day. High
Rip Current Risk and High Surf will likely be needed for the coast
for Saturday. Categorical rain chances are in place across much of
the area as this passes through and lifts off to the NE Saturday,
with cooler and drier air moving in behind it as high pressure
builds into the area Sunday and Monday. A cold front will then
push into the area Tuesday and stall out bringing some scattered
rain chances. The boundary washes out as high pressure shifts east
to the north of the area and easterly flow returns for Wednesday
and Thursday. Another cold front will then be approaching the
area for Friday and turn winds to the south. Highs will generally
be in the 80s except this afternoon, mid to upper 70s possible
across the Nature Coast. Lows will be in the upper 60s to 70s
through Tuesday, then falling into the upper 50s to lower 70s
possible mid week before moderating back into the mid 60s to 70s
by the end of the period.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR will prevail at all terminals through mid morning. By late
morning and into the afternoon showers and isolated storms will
move onshore from the Gulf and increase in coverage across the
region with MVFR/IFR conditions possible especially from KSRQ
north to KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL terminals after 18Z with these
conditions then spreading south to the southern terminals after
22Z. Light/variable winds early this morning will become southeast
and gusty by mid afternoon and continuing into tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and seas will be on the increase today, with the Tropical
Storm warning continuing for the northern waters, and then an SCA
going into effect for the rest of the waters starting this
afternoon and continuing through Saturday night. Once the tropical
system lifts out to the NE and merges with the upper trough, high
pressure will build over the waters Sunday with winds and seas
gradually subsiding below advisory levels. High pressure will then
be in place through the end of the period with a cold front
approaching the waters Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some strong winds with the tropical system through Saturday, but
no other concerns through the period with plenty of moisture and
rain in place.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  80  74  84  74 /  80  80  80  30
FMY  87  76  85  76 /  60  50  70  30
GIF  81  73  84  73 /  60  80  80  30
SRQ  83  75  86  75 /  80  80  80  40
BKV  79  70  85  71 /  70  80  80  30
SPG  80  76  85  77 /  80  80  80  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal Levy.

Gulf waters...Tropical Storm Warning for Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to
     Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 2 AM EDT Sunday
     for Charlotte Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay
     waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to
     60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...24/Hubbard
AVIATION/DECISION SUPPORT...57/McMichael