Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 250840
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
340 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Broad ridging aloft over the region this morning as a diffuse
remnant frontal boundary at the surface lifts north across the
state as weakening surface high slides off the Eastern Seaboard
into the Atlantic. Shortwave energy over the western/central CONUS
moves east across the country through mid-week supporting the
development of a surface cyclone over the Southeast that drags a
cold front across the state by early Thursday. Ridging aloft
briefly builds over the region into the weekend before another
weak shortwave passes by to the north accompanied by another front
pushing across the state by early next week. Fairly progressive
pattern then looks to continue beyond the forecast period next
week as we welcome in February.

Primary concern over the next few mornings will continue to be
widespread low cloudiness and areas of fog developing during the
overnight and early morning hours. Southerly flow over the area
into mid-week will continue the threat until the aforementioned
cold front passes through the region Thursday with cooler/drier
air mass in its wake. Thereafter, flow gradually veers back
around to southerly on Sunday as second front approaches the
region before northwest flow returns following its passage early
next week. Aside from fog, weather will remain rather benign with
the exception of a chance of showers/slight chance of a
thunderstorm on Wednesday ahead of the first front and a slight
chance of showers Sunday night/early Monday with the second front.
Above normal temperatures through Wednesday with highs in the
upper 70s/mid 80s are expected, cooling into the mid 60s/lower 70s
on Thursday/Friday before warming back into the mid/upper 70s by
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
MVFR/IFR with local LIFR cigs and MVFR/local IFR vsbys expected
much of the morning with VFR returning late morning into early
afternoon. Light/variable winds increase out of the southeast
during the morning and shift/increase further out of the south to
around 10 to 15 knots during the afternoon before diminishing
below 10 knots during the evening.

&&

.MARINE...
Diffuse frontal boundary lifting north across the waters this
morning allowing development of light southerly winds over the
waters with patchy sea fog. Sea fog will continue to be a concern
into Wednesday as southerly flow continues until a cold front
moves across the region with showers and a few storms, followed by
northwest winds and a drier air mass as high pressure builds into
the region with cautionary to advisory level winds and seas into
Friday. Hazardous conditions subside into the weekend before
another front looks to approach the waters by early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Diffuse frontal boundary lifting north across the state this
morning with light flow overspreading the peninsula along with
some areas of fog. Cold front moves across the state Wednesday
into Thursday with showers and a slight chance of a thunderstorm,
followed by northwest winds ushering in a drier air mass as high
pressure builds into the region through Friday. Minimum RH values
look to hover slightly above critical value thresholds in some
locations Thursday through Saturday afternoons but no significant
fire weather concerns expected.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  65  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  65  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  81  63  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  65  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  60  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  75  65  75  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby


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