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000
FXUS62 KTBW 251139
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
639 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020

.AVIATION...
IFR/LIFR conditions will possible at southern terminal for a few
more hours. After that fog and CIGS will lift and we can expect
VFR conditions through the TAF period at all sites. Winds will
remain out of the north and northeast and stay below 15kts for
the next 24 hours.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 300 AM EST Sat Jan 25 2020/

DISCUSSION...
A deep low pressure system currently just north of the Ohio
Valley tracks northeastward into southwest Quebec on Sun...
trailing a cold front across the area early this morning and into
far south FL during the afternoon. The front stalls along the
Florida Keys and stretches northwest over the Gulf of Mexico
tonight. High pressure builds in along the central Gulf coast
today then tracks to FL and the adjacent Atlantic waters Sun
afternoon. There have been isolated light showers that have
occasionaly pushed inland along with patchy fog and low cloudiness
ahead of and along the front...but these continue to track south
and will clear central locations around daybreak and exit southern
locations around 10 am or so. Behind the front dry and stable air
filters in on northwesterly lower level flow that gradually
becomes northerly and diminishes. Temperatures start off around
normal but then slowly drop...to about 5 degrees below normal on
Sun.

Sun night through Fri: Broad and relaxed cyclonic flow aloft
dominates the central and eastern states for most of the period.
An embedded short wave trough scooting along the northeast Gulf
coast and north FL Sun night-Mon along with a weak wave/low forming
on the Gulf front will support a chance of showers. A second short
wave trough slides by just to the north Wed with some low chances of
showers. A third short wave trough deepens into a low over the
western Gulf coast Fri...with a surface reflection trailing a front
south across the Gulf. Showers will be on the increase for the end
of the week. Temperatures will run slightly below to near normal.



MARINE...
High pressure behind a cold front tracking south through the
waters today will support some exercise caution winds...15 to 20
knots...on Gulf waters. The high settles in and shifts across the
state during the rest of the weekend with veering and diminishing
winds. A weak low moves in from the western Gulf for the start of
the week with scattered showers. After today winds are expected
to stay below headline criteria.

FIRE WEATHER...
Drier air working in today will drop the min RH to less than 35
percent for many inland locations today and also Sun. However
durations will be limited...perhaps 3 hours only down south...with
light winds and low ERC values in most counties. Red flag
conditions are not expected. Moisture begins to recover Mon with
the RH above critical levels for the rest of the week. No
significant fog is expected for the next couple of nights.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  67  48  66  54 /   0   0   0  30
FMY  75  48  71  55 /   0   0   0  10
GIF  70  45  68  53 /   0   0   0  30
SRQ  68  46  67  55 /   0   0   0  30
BKV  68  39  67  48 /   0   0   0  30
SPG  66  52  66  55 /   0   0   0  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...27/Shiveley
MID TERM/LONG TERM/DECISION SUPPORT...04/Sobien