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000
FXUS62 KTBW 240840
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
340 AM EST Sun Jan 24 2021

.DISCUSSION...
Zonal flow aloft in place across the state this morning with a
weak frontal boundary stalled over the southern half of the
peninsula south of high pressure over the eastern CONUS, resulting
in east/northeast surface flow over the area. Abundant low-level
moisture in combination with the frontal boundary draped across
the region has led to the development of low clouds and areas of
fog over the peninsula and adjacent waters, and a Dense Fog
Advisory remains in effect for the central/southern near and
offshore waters including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor through 9
AM this morning. Areas of fog will be also be possible through
the morning over land areas before lifting and burning off by late
morning into the early afternoon. Otherwise, expect partly cloudy
skies with highs in the low 70s to around 80 degrees.

Flow aloft amplifies a bit beginning Monday as riding builds over
the state in response to upstream troughing over the western/central
CONUS. Lingering surface frontal boundary lifts back north across
the state on Monday as eastern CONUS high moves out over the
Atlantic, allowing southerly flow to overspread the area with
increasing temps/humidity into mid-week, which will also support
likelihood of fog development across the region. A series of
shortwaves progressing across the central/eastern CONUS this week
will lead to a couple areas of low pressure moving across the
country, including one expected to develop over the
Southeast/Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday which will drive a cold front
through the region into Thursday. Temps gradually warm into the
low/mid 80s prior to the arrival of the front, with showers possible
on Wednesday ahead of its passage. Cool/dry air mass moves into
the peninsula Thursday and Friday as winds shift northerly behind
the front then gradually shift to east/northeast on Friday, with
highs cooling into the mid 60s/lower 70s. Cool down will be short-
lived, as flow shifts southerly over the weekend as high pressure
over the eastern CONUS in the wake of the front quickly scoots
east into the Atlantic, allowing temps to return the mid 70s to
around 80 degrees under partly cloudy skies.

&&

.AVIATION...
Prevailing MVFR/IFR conditions with possibility of localized LIFR
cigs/vsbys continue through mid/late morning before VFR returns
into the afternoon. Light east/northeast winds increase slightly
and turn onshore during the afternoon at coastal terminals before
again decreasing/shifting out of the east/northeast late evening,
with cig/vsby restrictions expected to return overnight Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
A weak cold front has drifted into the southern waters bringing
east to northeast winds over the waters south of high pressure
over the eastern U.S. Winds shift southerly on Monday as the front
lifts back north across the waters while the high moves east into
the Atlantic. Southerly flow continues through the week until the
next cold front moves across the region Thursday, ushering in
drier air via north to northwest winds in its wake. Hazardous
conditions due to areas of sea fog remain possible through the
week prior to frontal passage, followed by gusty north to
northwest winds that will likely lead to cautionary to advisory
level winds and seas developing on Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Weak cold front over the southern half of the peninsula promoting
east to northeast winds today will lift back north of the state on
Monday, with southerly flow across the region persisting until the
next front moves across the state Wednesday into Thursday. High
pressure builds in its wake with cooler and drier air mass leading
to minimum RH values approaching critical value thresholds in
some locations on Thursday afternoon.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  64  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  62  81  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  78  63  82  62 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  78  63  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  76  60  81  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  74  64  75  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Tampa Bay waters-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Hurt
DECISION SUPPORT...Oglesby