Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
072 FXUS62 KTBW 101155 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 755 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New AVIATION... .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 745 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 VFR conditions prevail with rain chances increasing through the afternoon as the sea breeze slowly moves inland. The flow should be fairly light, therefore slow moving showers and storms are anticipated. The highest chances remain over interior and SWFL terminals. Lower cigs and vis are possible near thunderstorms. VFR conditions return going into the evening hours. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 229 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 High pressure surface and aloft will hold over the Florida peninsula through the weekend. An U/L low will approach the peninsula from the east early next week...and will sit over the forecast area during the middle part of the week. This will create a very wet pattern across west central and southwest Florida. At the surface, little change as weak high pressure will hold over the forecast area through Saturday with the ridge axis generally across the central Florida peninsula. This flow promotes highest pops over the interior and southwest Florida each day...which is also the region of best available deep layer moisture. The west/east coast sea breeze boundaries will push slowly inland during the day with the boundaries colliding over the interior during the late afternoon/early evening hours increasing shower/thunderstorm activity. Southwest Florida will be on the south side of the ridge axis with light east flow to start the day. This will hold the west coast sea breeze boundary closer to the coast with increasing shower/thunderstorm activity during the late afternoon. Due to the weak overall flow and slow storm movement, locally heavy rain will be possible. Scattered showers/thunderstorms will likely linger over portions of the interior and southwest Florida until at least midnight each evening due to the weak flow, with storms dissipating overnight with skies becoming partly cloudy. On Sunday, increasing deep layer moisture associated with the approaching U/L low will increase pops across west central and southwest Florida. Highest pops should remain over the interior and southwest Florida as boundary layer flow will remain weak. Early next week, increasing onshore boundary layer flow combined with the U/L low aloft and deep tropical moisture advecting over the forecast area will bring a significantly greater chance of showers/storms Monday and Tuesday to the entire region. Locally heavy rain will be possible. Boundary layer winds will veer to the south and southeast mid week. Although some drier air aloft may advect over the region, the low level flow would support higher pops across west central and southwest Florida along the west coast sea breeze boundary during the mid/late afternoon hours as it will be held closer to the coast. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 93 79 / 30 10 40 30 FMY 95 77 93 76 / 60 40 70 40 GIF 95 76 94 76 / 40 30 60 20 SRQ 91 77 92 76 / 30 20 40 40 BKV 93 73 94 73 / 30 10 30 20 SPG 90 79 91 78 / 30 10 40 30 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ DISCUSSION/AVIATION...Oglesby/Delerme DECISION SUPPORT...Shiveley