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000
FXUS62 KTBW 200837
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
337 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A positively-tilted trough axis is propagating southeastward from
the high plains toward the Florida peninsula as weak high pressure
is eroded across the Florida peninsula. The trough is dragging a
cold front with it, and this will be arriving on our doorstep late
tonight. Because the front will not be arriving until tonight, there
is still one more day of a summer-like pattern. Light and variable
winds through the morning hours with high dewpoints provide a good
setup for interior areas and SWFL to see patchy fog. Once the sun
rises, this will quickly dissipate. Temperatures are expected to top
out in the 80s once again this afternoon. Some areas may once again
be flirting with record high temperatures. Conditions favor a few
weak showers developing early, with some subtle convergence. As the
light synoptic flow will stick around through the afternoon, the sea
breeze is expected to kick in, and a few showers could develop along
the boundary and then move inland.

Today`s weather conditions contrast sharply with tomorrow. The
trough axis and attendant cold front will push through quickly
tonight. Not much rain is expected to accompany this front, with the
bulk of the upper support staying to our north and east. Some
showers are possible in northern counties, but most people will
likely only notice low clouds. A colder, continental airmass
originating from Canada will quickly take the place, and a northerly
wind will allow the cooler air to funnel southward. Due to the
strong thermal gradient, gusty winds will also return, and stick
around until tomorrow night. It will feel much cooler on Friday
morning, with some areas being 20 degrees cooler. Temperatures won`t
warm up much either through the day with cloud cover persisting for
many places through the afternoon.

As is typical when a front passes, Saturday morning is expected to
be the coldest morning. A gradual warmup will begin to take place
thereafter, and 80s are back in the forecast to kick off the work
week as high pressure shifts east and winds turn ESE. Another front
is expected to arrive next Thursday, and this will cool temps down
once more.

&&

.MARINE...
Fairly calm and benign boating conditions today will give way to
advisory conditions as winds and seas increase as a cold front
arrives overnight. Winds and seas will remain elevated into the
weekend before gradually subsiding with benign conditions returning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Some patchy fog is possible through the morning hours, but will
quickly burn off as the sun rises. A few showers are possible today
as the seabreeze develops and migrates inland. A cold front arrives
tonight, but should remain dry. Outside of some higher dispersions,
no other fire weather concerns exist at this time, with RH values
remaining above critical thresholds.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 126 AM EST Thu Feb 20 2020/

AVIATION...
Some temporary reductions in CIGS/VSBY possible through the morning
hours as low clouds and patchy fog continue to develop. By mid-
morning, conditions should improve to VFR. There is the
possibility for some showers, but the likelihood is too low for
mentioning at this time. A front will be moving through near the
end of the forecast period, bringing lowering CIGS and
northwesterly winds near the end of the forecast period.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  81  53  63  43 /  20  20  10   0
FMY  83  61  71  49 /  10   0  10   0
GIF  84  53  61  44 /  30  20  10   0
SRQ  81  56  68  46 /  10  10  10   0
BKV  83  48  61  38 /  20  30  10   0
SPG  80  54  65  45 /  10  10  10   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM Friday to 4 AM EST Saturday for
     Coastal waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out
     20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Flannery
DECISION SUPPORT...Rude