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000
FXUS62 KTBW 052354
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
654 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021

.UPDATE...
Mainly pleasant evening and overnight conditions with increasing
high clouds and temps not as cool as last night. Conditions change
quickly tomorrow as current Arkansas upper low opens tonight and
shortwave trough swings through the N Gulf tomoroow. Well advertised
surface low pressure system to develop in the Gulf tonight before
moving over the area for a showery Saturday. Latest grids and
forecasts on track.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions continue this evening, tonight into early Saturday
with light winds and thickening cirrus shield overhead from the
Gulf. An area of low pressure to develop tonight in the Gulf, then
move over the FL peninsula tomorrow, bringing widespread showers
with widespread MVFR to locally IFR cigs/vsby aft about 15Z
through the rest of Saturday afternoon.

&&

.Prev Discussion... /issued 253 PM EST Fri Mar 5 2021/

DISCUSSION...
Change is on the way for our weather. Today wraps up the conclusion
of what has been rather gorgeous conditions, for the most part. A
trough axis is propagating SE towards the Gulf Coast. As this
occurs, an area of low pressure is expected to generate over the
Gulf of Mexico, and then propagate eastward ahead of the upper-level
feature into our area tomorrow, leading to unsettled weather for
Saturday.

There will be plenty of PVA to work with, and WAA is also taking
place on a limited scale. Combined with additional surface
convergence from the developing low, there will be plenty of ascent
to support showers, and maybe a rumble or two of thunder. Given the
organized nature of the system, this will likely lead to on and off
rain throughout most of the day areawide, with northern counties
seeing the rain and clearing first, and southern counties
subsequently seeing it later.

As the trough continues to propagate eastward, and attendant cold
front will arrive and clear things out by Sunday. With a northerly
wind, a continental high will usher in cooler and drier weather once
again to start off the work week. The tighter gradient will favor
stronger winds as well, making conditions hazardous for boaters.

Conditions trend towards benign and temperatures slowly moderate
through the week as the ridge shifts and winds begin to respond
accordingly, slowly bringing moisture and warmer temperatures back.
While it will be a little cooler to start, the overall conditions
for the work week ahead look to be very nice and pleasant.

MARINE...
After a generally pleasant boating day today, marine conditions
begin to deteriorate as an area of low pressure brings rain, higher
winds, and higher seas into the forecast through the weekend. A
Small Craft Advisory has been issued for coastal waters from Tarpon
Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM, and additional
advisory to cautionary headlines are likely to follow on
subsequent forecast cycles. By mid-week, conditions will be slowly
improving with benign weather returning.

FIRE WEATHER...
Critical RH values are being observed area-wide this afternoon.
However, conditions do not otherwise support red flag conditions
today, or for the next couple days. Unsettled weather arrives
tomorrow as an area of low pressure develops. A cold front will push
through on the back side of this system, bringing higher winds and
drier conditions once more as this occurs.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  59  71  53  70 /  10  80  30   0
FMY  60  78  56  76 /   0  80  40   0
GIF  58  71  52  70 /  10  90  40   0
SRQ  59  73  54  73 /   0  80  40   0
BKV  52  69  45  70 /  20  80  30   0
SPG  61  69  55  69 /  10  80  30   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Saturday to 7 AM EST Sunday for
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.

&&

$$

RD