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000
FXUS62 KTBW 251221
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
721 AM EST Mon Jan 25 2021

.UPDATE...
Unlike yesterday morning, conditions have not been quite as
supportive for fog formation so far this morning. Rather, low clouds
have primarily shown up today. Whats the difference? Wind speeds
have been a knot or two higher this morning. This doesn`t sound like
much, but it is just enough to keep fog from forming in a lot of
spots. Areas that have seen fog are nearly calm.

Regardless of the phenomena occurring, daytime heating and
diurnal increases in wind speeds will help destabilize the
boundary layer and get the atmosphere mixing throughout the
morning. This should clear out any low clouds or fog in the next
couple hours, leading to a warm and fairly sunny afternoon once
again today. Overall, this is in line with the current forecast.
Only made a couple minor tweaks to better capture cloud cover
cloud cover through the morning.

&&

.AVIATION...
Slightly higher wind speeds have generally kept terminals from
seeing fog this morning, but conditions have still favored low
clouds, and this trend will continue for the next couple hours. As
heating begins to take place and wind speeds increase a bit during
the day, any low clouds and/or fog will dissipate, with VFR
prevailing through the rest of today. Conditions look very favorable
for fog overnight, but there still is uncertainty in how much this
will affect area terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
With high pressure off to the east, a more southerly fetch in the
winds will be evident today, and allow for speeds to pick up
between 10-15kts across coastal waters, and build seas of 1-2ft
today. As conditions calm tonight, there is a pretty decent
potential for sea fog to develop, and this will continue to be a
problem until the next front arrives during the middle of the
week. As it arrives, this will help to increase winds and seas
further, likely approaching cautionary, if not advisory criteria
by late in the week.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  79  65  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  81  65  82  64 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  81  63  83  63 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  79  65  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  81  60  80  60 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  75  65  75  65 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...None.
&&

$$

Flannery