Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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000
FXUS62 KTBW 180752
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
252 AM EST Sat Jan 18 2020

.DISCUSSION...
A strong U/L ridge will hold over the Florida peninsula today
with partly cloudy skies and continued warm temperatures.
Significant pattern change late in the weekend into early next
week as an U/L trough will dig over the eastern U.S. and push the
U/L ridge east of the area. A strong northern stream disturbance
will dig over the midwest Monday night and the southeast U.S. on
Tuesday. Quasi-zonal southern stream flow will set up mid week
from the southwest U.S. across the Gulf of Mexico and Florida
peninsula. A strong U/L disturbance will dig over the central
Rockies late in the week ejecting across the central/southern
plains and mid Mississippi River Valley...which will induce weak
downstream ridging over the southeast U.S. and Florida.

At the surface, an area of low pressure will move across the Great
Lakes today with an associated cold front approaching north
Florida tonight. The cold front will push slowly southeast across
the Florida peninsula Sunday and Sunday night with an increasing
chance of showers and possibly a few thunderstorms...with the
highest pops over the nature coast. Canadian high pressure will
build over the southeast U.S. and Florida in the wake of the
front with much colder drier air advecting across the region
Monday persisting through mid week. Ideal conditions for cold air
drainage flow down the peninsula will develop Monday night with
freezing temperatures possible across portions of the nature
coast...and mid to upper 30s possible in colder interior locations
of the central forecast area. Still a bit of wind could cause
even lower wind chill values.

Sunny and rather cold Tuesday with highs only expected to be in
the mid 50s north...lower 60s central...and mid 60s south.
Drainage flow will persist into Tuesday night and combined with
radiational cooling will allow overnight temperatures to drop
again to near or below freezing across the nature coast...with
generally upper 30s to lower 40s central...and lower to mid 40s
south. Boundary layer winds will be veering a bit more northeast
off the Atlantic and will begin modification process of
airmass...with slightly warmer temperatures on
Wednesday...however highs will still generally be in the 60s.
Surface high pressure will move over the western Atlantic on
Thursday with boundary layer winds veering to the east across the
Florida peninsula off the Atlantic...allowing low level moisture
and temperatures across west central Florida to modify...with an
increasing chance of showers on Friday.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail today with SCT 030-040 expected at all
terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Small craft advisory early this morning over the outer waters
with exercise caution conditions elsewhere. Gradient will weaken
today with winds and seas subsiding. However a cold front will
push across the waters Sunday night and Monday with increasing
north winds with advisory conditions possible through Tuesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
No fire weather hazards are expected for the next couple of days
as relative humidity values are expected to remain above critical
levels.

&&

.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  77  63  74  49 /   0  10  50  30
FMY  80  62  81  58 /   0   0  20  20
GIF  78  61  76  49 /   0   0  50  30
SRQ  80  64  76  52 /   0   0  50  30
BKV  79  60  74  44 /   0  10  60  20
SPG  78  64  75  51 /   0   0  50  30

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for Waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-Waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to 60 NM.

&&

$$

UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...13/Oglesby
DECISION SUPPORT...18/Fleming


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