Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
359 FXUS62 KTBW 092333 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 733 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE... .UPDATE... Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 A few clusters of thunderstorms continue across the West Central interior the evening. Overall, the convection has been on a downward trend, and this is expected to continue over the next couple hours as daytime heating wanes. For the rest of the week, ridging will continue to situate itself overhead the state. With that, there is weak associated flow to steer convective activity, keeping POPs highest and relatively stagnant over inland and southwest Florida, particularly in the late afternoon and evening hours. Inland shower and thunderstorm activity is built up from the state`s two coasts sea breeze boundaries, converging centrally as the day progresses. Meanwhile, southwest Florida is subject to some easterlyflow being located south of the ridge; this light flow collides with the west coast sea breeze and upholds the larger mass of shower and thunderstorm activity. This setup is consistent with the current forecast. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Ridging will remain overhead through the rest of the work week and into the weekend. This will result in a very weak flow aloft which will delay thunderstorm activity until the late afternoon and evening hours. These thunderstorms will form inland before slowly drifting towards the coast. The main concern with this regime will be localized flooding as any storms that do form will be slow moving. As we look into early next week the ridge will shift slightly north as a trough starts to head towards the state. This will bring us a more easterly flow regime as the trough brings additional moisture. PW currently are forecast to stay above 2.0 both Monday and Tuesday. This will allow for more widespread shower and thunderstorms chances. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 With a couple exceptions, the window for convection to develop in the vicinity of terminals has ended. With a light flow and the ridge axis parked directly overhead, the best potential for thunderstorms the next couple days will be late in the afternoon and into the evening. Otherwise, no significant aviation concerns. && .MARINE... Issued at 730 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Ridging will be overhead through the remainder of the week ahead. This will result in very light flow aloft and winds of 5 to 10 knots through the period. Best chance to see storms will be in late in the afternoon and evening hours as storms push off the coast. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 148 PM EDT Wed Jul 9 2025 Summertime convection and humidity will keep fire danger at a minimum. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 93 79 92 79 / 40 20 40 10 FMY 95 77 93 77 / 50 30 60 20 GIF 95 76 95 76 / 60 30 60 10 SRQ 93 77 91 76 / 30 20 30 10 BKV 92 73 93 72 / 50 20 40 10 SPG 90 80 91 78 / 30 20 30 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Thursday: 1 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Friday: 1 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE...Flannery/Ulevicius PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...Shiveley