Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 232002

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
302 PM EST Sat Jan 23 2021

Weak cold front has for the most part stalled along and just north
of the Interstate 4 corridor this afternoon with considerable
clouds and a few showers north of it with partly to mostly sunny
skies to the south. The boundary will begin to move once again
tonight as high pressure well to the north builds south and this
will shift the low level winds to northeast to east across the
entire region overnight through Sunday. With the abundant low
level moisture in place we`re looking for another round of low
clouds and fog late tonight into Sunday, but the expect the lowest
visibilities to be mainly across southwest Florida with mainly low
ceilings from around Tampa Bay and the Interstate 4 corridor
northward. Partly sunny skies will return by Sunday afternoon with
an afternoon sea breeze expected near the coast. Sunday night
through Wednesday the southerly flow will return as the high moves
out into the western Atlantic Ocean with warm and more humid
conditions setting us up for more late night early morning fog
and low clouds each day. The next cold front will approach and
move across the region late Wednesday into early Thursday with a
few showers accompanying it. Behind the front our next round of
cool dry weather returns to end the week. However, until this time
we`ll see temperatures above normal climbing into the lower 80s
over inland locations for Monday, and lower to middle 80s Tuesday,
and Wednesday.


Mainly VFR conditions, except occasional MVFR ceilings around
KTPA, KPIE, and KLAL, will continue into this evening then more
MVFR/IFR conditions will redevelop across the entire region
overnight and continue into mid-morning Sunday. Winds will remain
variable around the Tampa Bay area and Interstate 4 corridor, but
westerly at 5 to 9 knots from around KSRQ southward this
afternoon. Winds will shift to light northeast across the entire
area during this evening and overnight.


A weak cold front will drift south through the waters tonight
shifting winds to a more northeast to east direction as an area
of high pressure well to the north builds into the area. Early
next week winds will veer around to the south once again as the
high to the north moves out into the western Atlantic Ocean. An
area of sea fog off Pinellas and Manatee counties this afternoon
will continue to drift south and eventually get pushed well out
into the gulf tonight. The prospect for more sea fog will return
early next week as the southerly flow returns.


Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels through
early next week with dispersion values on the low side through
Sunday then improving early in the week as southerly flow
increases. Areas of fog are expected to develop each day during
the late night and early morning hours through the middle of next


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  62  77  63  79 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  62  80  62  81 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  60  78  62  82 /  10   0   0   0
SRQ  62  77  62  78 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  57  77  59  81 /  10   0   0   0
SPG  62  74  64  75 /   0   0   0   0


Gulf waters...None.


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