Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL
540 FXUS62 KTBW 061434 AFDTBW Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL 1034 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .UPDATE... Deep SW steering flow PoPs continue over the FL Peninsula today with Pwats still over 2 inches as seen in 12Z TBW sounding. Expect isolated-scattered E Gulf and coastal areas showers or storms this morning moving inland this afternoon with better rain chance well inland and into E FL. Warm and humid sensible July conditions continue and latest grids and fcsts on track. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Mainly VCSH this morning except SW FL where a few storms quickly moved through earlier with brief flight restrictions. SW flow shouldlimit afternoon TSRA in coastal areas but will keep VCTS for activity before convection shifts east of the terminals by 21Z. Mainly VFR conditions outside of SHRA/TSRA today then areawide overnight. && .DISCUSSION... Low pressure aloft continues to spin over the region while Tropical Storm Chantal moves toward the Carolina coast. There is also a weak surface trough across the Florida peninsula that has aided in some of the convection from last night. As we head through today, Chantal will move onshore and the boundary over the peninsula will wash out. Moisture will not be as high today compared with previous days, so rainfall coverage should be lower. Then for the rest of the week, we get back to a more typical summertime storm pattern as the Atlantic ridge builds back in. && .MARINE... Winds and seas will remain below headlines for the next several days. Daily showers and storms are expected and will produce briefly higher winds and seas. && .FIRE WEATHER... No fire weather concerns as relative humidity values will remain above critical levels. Warm and humid summertime conditions will continue, with scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TPA 89 79 91 79 / 50 20 50 10 FMY 91 77 93 76 / 40 10 60 10 GIF 91 76 93 76 / 50 10 50 10 SRQ 88 78 90 76 / 40 20 40 10 BKV 90 74 91 73 / 60 10 50 0 SPG 86 79 88 79 / 40 30 40 10 && Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Sunday: 5 Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Regime For Monday: 5 For additional information on sea breeze regimes, go to: https://www.weather.gov/tbw/ThunderstormClimatology && .TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. Gulf waters...None. && $$ UPDATE/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Davis DECISION SUPPORT...Pearce UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...Pearce