Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 011947

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
247 PM EST Mon Mar 1 2021

Ridging both aloft and surface over the area this afternoon will
get shunted southward tonight and Tue as an upper low/short wave
trough tracks from the southern plains to the Deep South by late
Tue...nudging a frontal boundary into the FL Panhandle that
reaches to north-central or central FL by Tue afternoon.

Southerly to southwesterly lower level flow along with the
approaching frontal boundary result in increasing moisture across
the area...and pooling ahead of the front. Expect another night of
low clouds and patchy fog...along with a few showers in the far
north. The fog and clouds begin to clear mid morning then daytime
will aid in showers formation. These will be scattered across
northern and central counties through the afternoon and into the
early evening.

From Wed through next Mon: The Deep South low/short wave trough
ejects out over the Atlantic by late Wed as it develops a surface
low along the FL Panhandle boundary. As the low tracks east it lifts
the north-central FL portion of the boundary north and sweeps a
cold front through the east Gulf and across the state during Wed.
On Thu...upper ridging builds northward over the US plains then
slides east and flattens Fri as a robust Great basin upper low
shifts into the lower Mississippi Valley. Canadian high pressure
sinks into the nation`s midsection then moves into the eastern
states. During the weekend...the upper low continues east...merges
into broad upper level troughiness over much of the eastern
US...then slips offshore. A few embedded short wave troughs rotate
around the base of the trough and help to spin up a weak surface
trough that crosses the East Gulf and FL on Sat. Mon...upper
ridging begins to build back north over the central states while
surface high pressure stretches south along the eastern seaboard.

We anticipate a generally dry forecast. However...the cold front
Wed and the upper level system with it`s surface reflection on Sat
with support isolated to scattered showers. The best upper level
energy stay well north of the area and instability will be
limited...precluding any significant thunderstorms. The main
concern will be enhanced Gulf winds and seas that may create a
high risk of rip currents Wed-Thu. Temperatures begin above normal
Wed but with a couple of brief cool downs during the period.


01/18Z TAFs. Prevailing VFR but could see a few BKN CIGS at 4K.
Winds S or SSW AOB 12KT with a few gusts PSBL. Anticipate conditions
deteriorating this evening with low ST and or sea fog impacting the
aerodromes AFT 05-06Z with MVFR and TEMPO IFR TIL 13-14Z. AFT 14Z
MVFR CIGS gradually lift. Light VRBL winds over night become ENE or
E in the morning.


Southerly to southwesterly lower level flow has advected enough
moisture rich air across the Gulf...along with a frontal boundary
approaching from the create sea fog. This sea fog will
continue over night and into Tue morning and may be locally dense.
Otherwise...Winds 10 to 15 knots or so for the next couple of
days as high pressure drifts south in advance of a cold front. The
front moves across the state midweek as high pressure builds in
behind it. Winds midweek and later may run in the 15 to 20 knot


While the atmosphere stays somewhat on the dry side with only limited
rain chances there will be adequate moisture to preclude any low RH
concerns and to support patchy fog. A warm front then a cold
front impact the area around mid week with showers. High pressure
builds in for the end of the week with the RH near critical


.Preliminary Point Temps/PoPs...
TPA  68  78  69  77 /  10  10  20  40
FMY  68  84  69  82 /   0  10   0  10
GIF  66  81  67  80 /  10  30  10  40
SRQ  67  80  68  78 /   0  10  10  30
BKV  62  78  62  77 /  10  20  20  50
SPG  69  77  69  75 /  10  10  10  40


Gulf waters...None.


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