661
AXNT20 KNHC 180429
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N21W.
The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 05N35W and to 05N52W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N and west of 33W.
Isolated moderate convection is seen within 120 nm on both sides
of the ITCZ and monsoon trough east of 31W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

As of 0300 UTC, a stationary front extends from southern Louisiana
to NE Tamaulipas. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are
present in the NW Gulf waters. In the remainder of the basin, much
drier environmental conditions prevail. Fresh to strong easterly
winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring north of Yucatan,
especially south of 25N and between 85W and 90W. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the
Gulf. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering
most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico, including in the
coastal plains of Mexico.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will shift eastward
across the northern Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken
gradually through Mon. Upper-level disturbances moving from W to E
across the Gulf coast states will maintain active weather over
the northern Gulf through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate to
fresh return flow will dominate the basin, except pulsing to
locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the Bay of Campeche
through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun into early next
week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, areas of haze
and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue across most
of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends
southwestward into the Caribbean Sea. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics support fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the
south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, and west
of 82W, including the Gulf of Honduras. Seas in the areas
described are 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker wind and
slight to moderate sea are prevalent. Areas of haze and smoke from
agricultural fires are covering the NW Caribbean Sea including
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, a weak and narrow Atlantic ridge extends westward
along 24N into the central Bahamas. The associated pressure
gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over SE Mexico is
supporting fresh to strong SE winds in the Gulf of Honduras, and
fresh to briefly strong E winds in the south-central Caribbean.
Strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist through Sun,
reaching near gale-force this evening into Sat morning and again
Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in the Gulf
of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. Gentle to
moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next week.
High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward Wed
and Wed night leading to increasing trade winds over most of the
central and eastern Caribbean. Dense smoke due to agricultural
fires in Central America continues across areas of the
northwestern Caribbean, and is significantly reducing visibility
across the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N63W to 27N70W, where it transitions
into a stationary front to near Port Canaveral, Florida. A few
showers are seen near the frontal boundary off the NW Bahamas. The
rest of the western Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence
of a broad subtropical ridge in the central Atlantic. The weak
pressure gradient sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas.

The central and eastern Atlantic is dominated by the
aforementioned subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found south of 20N and west
of 35W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
move slowly eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon. Active
weather is expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun.
Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected
across most of the area through Sun night as weak high pressure
extends E to W roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink
southward into the waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early
Mon, and move southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A
residual trough may linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas
Wed and Wed night.


$$
Delgado