Tropical Weather Discussion
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000
AXNT20 KNHC 191723
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
123 PM EDT Tue Sep 19 2017

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1715 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

At 19/1500 UTC, Category 5 Hurricane Maria is located near 16.3N
63.1W or about 200 nm west of Guadeloupe, moving west-northwest
at 9 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is 927 mb.
Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. SCattered
to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm of the center in
all quadrants and from 12N-20N between 58W-66W. The eye of Maria
will move over the northeastern Caribbean Sea today, and approach
the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please
see the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers
MIATCMAT5/WTNT35 KNHC for more details.

At 19/1500 UTC, Hurricane Jose is located about 200 nm east-
northeast of Cape Hatteras, North Carolina near 36.5N 71.7W,
moving north at 6 kt. The estimated minimum central pressure is
976 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt.
Scattered moderate convection is from 36N-41N between 70W-74W.
The center of Jose is forecast to pass well offshore of the
Delmarva peninsula later today, pass well to the east of the New
Jersey coast on Wednesday, and continue offshore of southeastern
Massachusetts by Thursday. Please see the latest NHC
Forecast/Advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT2/WTNT22 KNHC
for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave came off the west coast of Africa earlier this
morning. Its axis extends from 19N18W to 07N18W. The wave is in a
region of abundant low to middle level moisture as shown by CIRA
LPW and TPW imagery. This combined with upper-level diffluent
flow supports scattered moderate convection along the southern
portion of the wave south of 13N and west of the wave`s axis,
mostly along the monsoon trough.

A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis extending
from 21N81W to 09N84W, moving west at about 15 kt. CIRA LPW
imagery at the lower levels show large patches of dry air in the
northern wave environment. Moderate shallow moisture and diffluent
flow aloft support scattered moderate convection south of 15N
between 80W-84W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends southwest from the African coast near
17N16W to 09N29W to 09N44W. Aside from the convection associated
with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is within
150 nm either side of the monsoon trough.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

Weak surface ridging prevails over the basin with light and
variable winds over most of the area with the exception of
moderate to locally fresh SE winds within 60 nm of the coast of
Texas and moderate to fresh NE winds over the Bay of Campeche.
Enhanced winds off the W Yucatan Peninsula are associated with the
northern region of a tropical wave moving over EPAC waters.
Ridging aloft over the entire Gulf along with dry air subsidence
continue to support clear skies. This pattern will continue
through the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Major Hurricane Maria is moving in the vicinity of the Leeward
Islands and NE Caribbean waters. The eye of Maria will continue to
move over the northeastern Caribbean today, approaching the Virgin
Islands and Puerto Rico tonight and Wednesday. Please see special
features for further details. The other area of weather in the
basin is related to a tropical wave described in the section
above. Light to gentle trades prevail west of 70W, as noted in
scatterometer data. Expect for the tropical wave to continue
moving west with convection.

...HISPANIOLA...

Mostly fair weather prevails across the island. Weather
conditions will deteriorate across starting Wednesday morning
associated with the outer rainbands of Hurricane Maria. This
activity will increase as the system moves west-northwest very
close of the island on Thursday.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section above for more
information on Hurricane Maria and Hurricane Jose. The remnants
of T.D. Lee are located near 16N45W and are forecast to move
northwest during the next 24 hours. Scattered moderate convection
is within 200 nm over the northeast quadrant of the low center. A
surface trough is over the central Atlantic extending from 32N41W
to 26N46W. Scattered moderate convection is observed east of this
trough north of 26N between 35W-40W. The remainder of the basin
remains under the influence of a broad surface ridge centered
north of the area.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$

ERA




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