Tropical Weather Discussion
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973
AXNT20 KNHC 221259
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
705 AM EDT FRI JUL 22 2016

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is moving across the east Tropical Atlantic
with axis that extends from 23N30W to 12N29W, moving west near 10-15
kt over the past 24 hours. The wave coincides with a well defined
700 mb trough as depicted in the global models. Scattered
moderate convection is observed in the vicinity of the southern
portion of the wave but it is related to the presence of the
Monsoon Trough. The wave itself is surrounded by Saharan dry air
and dust which is inhibiting deep convection.

A tropical wave is moving across the central Caribbean with axis
extending from 20N75W to 10N77W, moving west near 20-25 kt over
the past 24 hours. This wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough
as depicted in the global models and within a surge of moisture as
seen on the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated
showers and thunderstorms prevail north of 13N affecting Jamaica and
adjacent waters between 71W-75W.

A tropical wave is located across the west Caribbean with axis
from 23N86W to 14N88W, moving west near 10-15 kt over the past 24
hours. The wave coincides with a weak 700 mb trough as depicted
in the global models and is within a surge of moisture as seen on
the SSMI Total Precipitable Water imagery. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are observed north of 17N between 82W-86W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

The Monsoon Trough extends across Africa into the east Tropical
Atlantic near 20N17W through a 1012 mb surface low near 13N22W to
07N39W. The ITCZ begins at 07N39W and extends to 05N52W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 300 nm south of the Monsoon Trough between
18W-39W.

...DISCUSSION...

GULF OF MEXICO...

The northern portion of a tropical wave is approaching the Yucatan
Channel with isolated showers/thunderstorms. Please refer to the
section above for more details. A surface trough extends across
the southwest Gulf from 23N94W to 18N94W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed with this boundary which is moving west
over the Bay of Campeche south of 21N west of 93W. A surface
ridge prevails across the remainder of the basin anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 30N82W. A diffluent flow aloft
prevails across the northeast Gulf supporting scattered showers
and thunderstorms mainly north of 25N. Gentle to moderate
anticyclonic flow prevails across the basin. A similar weather
pattern will persist during the next 24 hours.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to
the section above for details. The presence of the Monsoon
Trough supports scattered moderate to strong convection over
Colombia and Panama affecting the southern waters south of 11N
between 75W-80W. Dry Saharan air prevails across the eastern
Caribbean inhibiting deep convection. Scatterometer data depicts
moderate to fresh trades across the basin. Expect during the
next 24 hours for the waves to continue moving west with
isolated convection. Little change is expected elsewhere.

...HISPANIOLA...

Drier conditions will prevail within the next 24 hours as a dry
Saharan airmass dominates the area.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Please
refer to the section above for details. An upper-level trough dips
south over the the far west Atlantic between 70W-80W supporting a
frontal system and surface low just north of the discussion area.
A surface trough precedes these features extending from 30N60W
to 28N71W. Scattered moderate convection and thunderstorms are
from 26N to 31N between 66W and 77W. The remainder of the basin
is dominated by a surface ridge anchored by a 1030 mb high
centered near 41N25W. A similar weather pattern will prevail
through the next 24 hours.

For additional information please visit
http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine

$$
ERA/ASL



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