562
FXUS65 KGJT 020552
AFDGJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1152 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated to scattered thunderstorm development remains a
  threat each afternoon through early next week with gusty
  outflow winds more likely than wetting rainfall.

- Temperatures remain above normal this weekend into early next
  week. The warmest temperatures of the season thus far looks
  likely by midweek.

- The warmer temperatures means runoff will be well underway
  with most major stem rivers showing rises over the next
  several days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Scattered showers and storms have developed as anticipated this
afternoon, focused along and north of I-70. This is in response
to the passage of a weak wave embedded in the zonal flow with
said wave providing enough instability to fuel some locally
stronger storms. Either way, gusty outflows in the 40 to 45 mph
range will be the primary concern though some isolated small
hail cannot be ruled out. A few nocturnal showers are possible
into Sunday morning before the shortwave slides east of the
Divide but we`ll see yet another weak ripple track across the
north on Sunday. So, we can expect another round of diurnally-
driven showers and storms across northeast Utah and northwest
Colorado into Sunday evening. The potential for notable wetting
rain remains low as the lower levels of the atmosphere stay dry.
Outside of convection, dry weather will prevail through the
short term with some occasionally breezy conditions as winds
gusts to near 25 mph. It`ll also continue to be unseasonably
warm through the period with Sunday`s highs reaching 3 to 6
degrees above normal while overnight lows tonight and Sunday
night remain 5 to 10 degrees above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Issued at 330 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

On Monday a low pressure makes landfall in the Pacific Northwest.
This system tracks eastward over the Northern Rockies during the
day. It will push some moisture into our area as well as a weak
cold front. The higher terrain especially across the northern
tier of the forecast area looks to have some instability. So
there is a slight chance for orographic showers and storms in
the afternoon and evening. The front could also provide a focus
for shower development, which sweeps through overnight. Showers
could reach as far south of the I-70 corridor, but the coverage
should stay isolated. On Tuesday that system tracks over the
Northern Plains and drags drier air behind it which filters into
our area. The weak cold front starts to lift northward as a
ridge of high pressure builds in from the south. This marks the
beginning of a warmer than normal period for our region. There
is modest subsidence associated with the ridge so the chances
for convection are slim Tuesday and Wednesday. The high pressure
becomes centered over New Mexico later in the week. High
temperatures could reach the lower 100s across the desert
valleys with upper 70s expected in the mountain towns. On
Thursday we get some moisture return so that introduces a slight
chance for showers and storms in the mountains mainly across
the south. On Friday a low pressure makes landfall in the Baja
and moves over the Desert Southwest. This appears to increase
the moisture return and therefore the chances for afternoon
convection on the mountains. The models are struggling with how
to handle that low pressure to our southwest so confidence in
the forecast is low attm. The moisture does not look to exit the
region so we could have a repeat of Friday. The warm temperatures
do not go away either, which may limit how much rainfall reaches
the ground with any of these showers. This increases the potential
for gusty winds as well. Perhaps localized rain cooled outflows
could help some locations cool off otherwise it will be warm.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1152 PM MDT Sat Jun 1 2024

Isolated showers will linger across northwest Colorado through
the early morning before dissipating. Light winds are expected
overnight before picking up again Sunday afternoon. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms will favor areas north of
I-70 on Sunday afternoon and evening, with partly sunny skies
and dry conditions elsewhere. Gusty outflow winds of 40 to 60
mph will again be the primary concern with any storm activity.
VFR conditions should prevail thoughout the 24 hour period as
showers/storms remain high based with little in the way of
precipitation reaching the ground.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

CO...None.
UT...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MMS
LONG TERM...KJS
AVIATION...MDA