Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 101732
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1132 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 833 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

QUICK UPDATE TO LOWER POPS SOME THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
VALLEYS...AS MODELS INDICATING SHOWERS/STORMS TO REALLY GET GOING
FROM ABOUT 18Z ONWARDS. RADAR IS SHOWING SOME WEAK SHOWERS ATTM
OVER ERN UT SO NO CHANGE THERE OR EXTREME WRN COLORADO. FLASH
FLOOD WATCH CONTINUES AS DESCRIBED BELOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

WEAK WAVE DRIFTING NORTH ACROSS EASTERN UTAH THIS MORNING SPARKING
ISOLATED SHOWERS IN INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. SFC MOISTURE
CONTINUES TO CLIMB WITH MOST LOCATIONS SHOWING ANOTHER 5 DEGREE
JUMP OVER THIS TIME YESTERDAY. RAP13 AND NAM12 BOTH PICKING UP ON
THIS WEAK WAVE AND LIFT IT INTO NORTHWEST COLORADO BY MID MORNING.
HAVE BOOSTED POPS UP ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES AS THIS WAVE SLIDES
IN AND MOISTURE CONTINUED TO DEEPEN. HAVE ALSO EXPANDED THE FLASH
FLOOD WATCH NORTH IN THE BOOKCLIFFS AND TAVAPUTS PLATEAU AREAS AS
ISOLATED POCKETS OF 1 INCH PLUS FELL YESTERDAY AFTERNOON...AND
SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SIMILAR NUMBERS AGAIN TODAY. SOUTHERN ZONES
MAY SEE A LITTLE SUBSIDENCE THIS MORNING...BEFORE ANOTHER WEAK
WAVE LIFTS INTO THE FOUR CORNERS THIS AFTERNOON. ALL SIGNS POINT
TO ANOTHER ACTIVE DAY WITH SLOW MOVING CELLS...CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AS PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES CLIMB OVER
ONE INCH...WHICH IS FAIRLY COMMON IN ALL SHORT TERM MODELS. WITH
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO CLIMB...WILL SHAVE ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OFF MAX TEMPS...RESULTING IN A SPLIT OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR
MAX TEMPS TODAY.

SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD LINGER INTO TONIGHT DRIVEN
BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND ANY WEAK/ILL-DEFINED UPPER
DISTURBANCES...SIMILAR TO THE PAST FEW NIGHTS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE.

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW AN UPPER WAVE TREKKING NORTHEAST ACROSS NE
UT/NW CO ON FRIDAY. THIS AND DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD PRODUCE ANOTHER
ROUND OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES STILL NEAR 1 INCH...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN REMAINS
POSSIBLE. STORMS SHOULD HAVE A BIT MORE MOVEMENT ACROSS NE UT/NW CO
WITH THE UPPER DISTURBANCE.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 347 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS LINGER INTO FRI NIGHT. THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS
BECOMES ORIENTED ALONG THE SRN UT/SRN CO BORDERS INTO OKLA BY
SATURDAY...WITH FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN AREAS BECOMING
MORE WESTERLY WITH SOME DRIER AIR TRYING TO INFILTRATE THE EASTERN
GREAT BASIN. BUT WITH NO DEFINITIVE PUSH...MOISTURE MAY BE DIFFICULT
TO DISLODGE OVER OUR AREA...AND THE 00Z GFS HOLDS ONTO ABOUT 8
TENTHS INCH OF PRECIP WATER. EXPECT ANOTHER DAY OF CONVECTIVE
ACTIVITY MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME/DIFFERENTIAL HEATING GETS GOING.

RIDGE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WITH DEEPER
MOISTURE SHUNTED A BIT SOUTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA. STILL
EXPECT AT LEAST SCATTERED ACTIVITY FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS ON
SUNDAY...BUT OVERALL EXPECT A DOWN DAY. NEXT PAC SYSTEM FLATTENS
THE RIDGE MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...ALLOWING MOISTURE TO PUSH
BACK WEST AND NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL BRING
ANOTHER SURGE OF CONVECTION TO THE REGION...WITH IMPROVING SHEER
PROFILE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FEW
STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE REGION WITH APPROACHING WAVE FROM THE
NORTHWEST. WILL RUN WITH PERSISTENCE AS FAR AS TEMPS ARE CONCERNED
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1128 AM MDT THU JUL 10 2014

ANOTHER DAY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALREADY STARTING WITH SOME CELLS
FORMING OVER THE SAN JUANS AND THE UINTAH BASIN. COVERAGE WILL
INCREASE QUICKLY WITH SOME HEAVY RAIN...SMALL HAIL...AND GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING. INCLUDED VCTS AND
TEMPO TS IN MANY TAF SITES FROM BETWEEN 20Z THROUGH 01Z. OUTSIDE
OF STORMS...A MID LEVEL DECK OF BROKEN CLOUDS AROUND 12 TO 15K
FEET WILL SET UP THIS AFTERNOON KEEPING VFR IN EFFECT. MTN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE COMMON MAINLY OVER THE SAN JUANS. 40 TO 50
PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR VCTS AND TS ON STATION TODAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR COZ003-006-007-009-
     011-017>023.

UT...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING FOR UTZ022-025-027>029.

&&

$$

UPDATE...TGR
SHORT TERM...JDC/JAD
LONG TERM...JDC/JAD
AVIATION...TGR


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