Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 262336
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
536 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

TWO DISTURBANCES TO IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. THE FIRST WAS
LIFTING THROUGH THE CENTRAL CWA THIS AFTERNOON. ITS NE EDGE MOVING
INTO NW CO WAS INTERACTING WITH STEEPER LAPSE RATES FOR STRONGER
THUNDERSTORMS THERE. FURTHER SOUTH...WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND
MARGINAL INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS. SOME AREA OF
PARTIAL CLEARING WAS MOVING INTO SE UTAH THAT COULD DESTABILIZE
LATE AFTERNOON. FLOW WILL VEER FROM S TO SW. STORM MOTION OF
SW25KTS WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ANY ONE STORM.

SECOND STRONGER DISTURBANCE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL UTAH LIFTS NE
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS FORCING WILL FAVOR NE
UTAH AND SOUTHWARD ALONG THE UT-CO BORDER. THIS IS THE BEST CHANCE
FOR HEAVIER SHOWERS WITH PRECIP WATER VALUES AT 1.5 INCHES IN
EASTERN UTAH AND FAR WESTERN COLORADO. WET BULB ZERO LEVEL AT
15KFT DOES NOT RULE OUT SMALL HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. BEST
FORCING WORKS INTO THE PARK AND ELKHEAD MTNS AFTER MIDNIGHT. FLOW
VEERS TO W AND ADVECTS SOME DRIER AIR FOR EASTERN UTAH AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGHINESS REMAINING OVER OUR CWA EARLY IN THE
MORNING SHOULD THEN BE EAST OF OUR AREA IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
DRIER AIR SPREADING IN UNDER A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MODELS
SHOWING PRETTY GOOD AIRMASS WARMING TOMORROW...3-4 DEGREES C
WARMER THAN TODAY AT H7...AND EXPECT SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF
SUNSHINE BY AFTERNOON MOST AREAS EXCEPT OVER MOUNTAINS MAINLY
ALONG CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THEREFORE.. HAVE RAISED MAX TEMPERATURES
2-4 DEGREES F TOMORROW IN MANY AREAS FROM PREVIOUS GRIDS.

THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE A NOTICEABLY COOLER NIGHT THAN TONIGHT
DUE TO COOLER AIRMASS...LOWER DEW POINTS...AND MAX RADIATIONAL
COOLING IN MOST AREAS UNDER CLEAR OR MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 352 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

UPPER RIDGE AXIS WILL BE OVER OUR CWA ON FRIDAY...THEN EAST OF OUR
CWA BEGINNING SATURDAY...LEAVING OUR CWA UNDER A SW FLOW ALOFT
THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. THROUGH THIS WEEKEND
THE SW FLOW ALOFT SHOULD BE RELATIVELY DRY EXCEPT FOR A FEW LATE
DAY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DUE TO DAYTIME HEATING. THEN EARLY
IN THE WORK WEEK A PACIFIC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. GFS...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE
EC MODEL...SHOW SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE SPREADING UP TOWARDS OUR CWA
BY LATE MONDAY...AND IMPACTING OUR CWA THEREAFTER NEXT WEEK. COULD
BE MORE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THAN THE SCATTERED AERIAL
COVERAGE PRESENTLY INDICATED IN THE MODELS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
WESTERN CO MOUNTAINS AND LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA.

OTHERWISE...WARMING TREND THAT BEGINS THURSDAY WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK...AS MODELS SHOW H7 TEMPERATURES ON
FRIDAY ANOTHER 3-4 DEGREES C WARMER THAN THURSDAY...THEN ANOTHER
1-2 DEGREES C WARMER ON SATURDAY. THEN TEMPERATURES SHOULD REMAIN
RATHER STATIC UNTIL THE SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES BACK INTO OUR
AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 528 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES TODAY ARE KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS ACROSS
WESTERN COLORADO AND EASTERN UTAH. AN AREA OF SHOWERS WILL IMPACT
THE NORTHWEST COLORADO THIS EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER AREA OF LGT TO
MOD PRECIP REACHES KGJT BETWEEN 00Z AND 04Z. A FEW ISO TSTORMS
NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS MAY IMPACT KDRO AND KTEX TONIGHT POTENTIALLY
REACHING ILS BREAKPOINT AND EVEN MVFR IF THE STORMS HIT THESE
AIRPORTS DIRECTLY. GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE
STRONGEST STORMS...BUT IN GENERAL GUSTS WILL REMAIN AS HIGH AS
30KT THROUGH 06Z ACROSS THE REGION. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AND WILL DECREASE CIGS WITH TEMPERATURES
LOWERED OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE/JRP
LONG TERM...JRP
AVIATION...JAM


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.