Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 222044
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
244 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE UPPER TROUGH PUSHED THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY AND IS
DROPPING ONTO THE PLAINS THIS EVENING. THE STORM ENVIRONMENT
CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS AFTERNOON AS THE NOSE OF THE JET PUSHED
EAST OF THE AREA. SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON ARE OROGRAPHICALLY
GENERATED BUT NOT ABLE TO SUSTAIN FOR LONG OVER THE VALLEYS.
THROUGH THIS EVENING WEAK ENERGY OVER THE NORTHEASTERN MTNS WILL
KEEP ISOLATED STORMS GOING THROUGH THE EVENING AND PERHAPS
OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT A QUIET NIGHT WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES
UNDER CLEARING SKIES. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT MAINLY
IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA WHERE DEWPOINTS REMAIN
HIGH.

OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT BASIN ON TUESDAY
FOR REBOUNDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL. WINDS
WILL BE MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE PROGRESSES OVERHEAD FOR CONTINUED DRY AND WARM
CONDITIONS. THURSDAY THE RIDGE BECOMES POSITIVELY TILTED AS THE
NEXT LARGE TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE WEST COAST. A BACKDOOR FRONT
BRINGS A WEAK SURGE OF MOISTURE INTO THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY FOR A MENTION OF AFTERNOON STORMS IN THE
PAGOSA-LAKE CITY AREA. FRIDAY THE RIDGE GETS UNDERCUT AND BEGINS
TO LIFT TO THE NE AS TROUGH DIGS ALONG THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
COAST.

THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF
THE TROUGH INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND. BUT TIMING REMAINS UNCERTAIN
WITH THE GFS FASTER AND EC SLOWER. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY HAVE
KEPT JUST A LOW MENTION OF POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM MDT MON SEP 22 2014

THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED AT TIMES THIS EVENING EAST
OF A LINE FROM KDRO TO KCAG. SKIES WILL GRADUALLY CLEAR AND
CONDITIONS IMPROVE THIS EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED STORMS ALONG
THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BEYOND MIDNIGHT. PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE
06-15Z MAINLY EAST OF THAT LINE. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR
ALL TAF SITES THROUGH TUESDAY AND BEYOND.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE/AS
AVIATION...JOE



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