Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 031635

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
935 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Issued at 658 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Increased pops across northwest Colorado mountains and some higher
surrounding valleys as some light snow is falling out of the
showers and clouds currently associated with a trailing weak
shortwave in northwest flow. Some northwest orographics are also
in play. Not expecting much accumulation at all, just flurries to
very light snow through early afternoon as this shortwave passes.
Also, lowered the high temperature for today as colder air pours
in behind the departing trough. Low temperature this morning at
Grand Junction dropped to 16, with many areas seeing the coldest
temperatures so far this season. Thinking valley inversions may
hold on a bit longer and be tough to break this afternoon with
limited mixing, so went closer to the cooler MAV guidance. Most of
the area aside from the northern mountains will see mostly sunny
skies today with a few passing high clouds.


.SHORT TERM...(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Temperatures are running between 3 and 5 degrees cooler at many
locations this hour compared to 24 hours ago as skies are clearing
out behind a departing boundary. In fact Grand Junction Airport is
currently reporting a temperature of 18 F. Skies will remain
mostly clear to partly cloudy for a majority of the forecast area
today into tonight. Under these sky conditions temperatures will
be running 2 to 6 degrees warmer at many locations by this
afternoon, but will remain pretty chilly.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 356 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Dry weather and a few more degrees of warming are expected on
Sunday as high pressure briefly builds over the area. Temperatures
will continue to rise in southwestern portions of the CWA on
Monday as warm southerly winds move in ahead of an approaching
cold front. This cold front will bring snow to northeastern
portions of the CWA Monday morning with snow spreading south
throughout the day. This cold front will open the door to a really
cold airmass which will sweep in on Tuesday and linger into

700mb temperatures associated with this cold airmass will plummet
to -15 to -18 C by Tuesday evening. This translates into afternoon
temperatures in the single digits to mid teens in the mountains
Tuesday and Wednesday the the valleys only seeing high
temperatures in the mid 20s. Overnight low temperatures will be
pretty frigid with widespread temperatures ranging between -1 and
-10 F in eastern portions of the CWA and single digit to lower
teens for the remainder of the CWA. Temperatures will slowly warm
on Thursday and Friday as high pressure builds over the area.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 935 AM MST Sat Dec 3 2016

Broken to overcast skies remain across northwest Colorado with low
cigs between 2000 and 4000 ft, as a trailing disturbance crosses
the area in northwest flow. Some light snow is occurring over the
higher peaks of the NW Colorado mountains. ILS breakpoints are
expected to be reached at times due to lower ceilings as this
disturbance passes through. Expect improving ceilings and
clearing skies from the northwest after 21z into the late
afternoon and evening. The rest of the forecast area will see
partly to mostly sunny skies with VFR conditions as drier air
moves in. Generally light diurnal winds are expected to prevail at
all TAF sites today with some gusty winds possible among the
higher peaks along the divide.




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