Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 300557

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1157 PM MDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

Split troughy pattern over the Rockies will progress eastward
over the next couple of days. The southern closed low trekking
across SoCal today will allow for some added instability late
Monday afternoon and through the night with pieces of energy
pushing in to the northern Four Corners ahead of the unstable air
mass. As mentioned in the previous forecast discussion overall
the models have downscaled activity for Monday afternoon, but
with the vort kickers and ever so slightly increased bulk shear I
would expect more activity than today. High and low temperatures
will remain around normal over the next few days.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 303 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

The closed low will stall over Arizona, propagate southward,
and stay south of our forecast area through Wednesday before it
weakens. During this time frame, afternoon convection should stay
anchored over the higher terrain for the most part. In the
meantime, 500 mb heights strengthen high pressure over the
western US and qill slowly shift its axis over eastern Utah and
western Colorado by next weekend. Summer-like weather will truly
show up late this week and next weekend as temperatures soar into
the 90s across the lower valleys and into the upper 60s in the
high mountains.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Monday night)
Issued at 1154 PM MDT Sun May 29 2016

vfr conditions expected overnight with a few stray showers here
and there. expect more showers and storms tomorrow firing between
16z and 17z. mountain taf sites look to have the best bet for
-tsra or vcts as most convection will form over the higher
terrain. for now...vcsh looks good. most convection will die down
after sunset.


.GJT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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