Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Graphics & Text | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50

000
FXUS65 KGJT 280854
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
254 AM MDT THU MAY 28 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

TWO BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT NORTH OF A LINE FROM MOAB TO DELTA AND ASPEN...AND
EXTENDING AS FAR NORTH AT CRAIG AND STEAMBOAT SPRINGS. HAVE
UPDATED THE GRIDS AND FCSTS.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 749 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

STORMS AND SHOWERS CONTINUE THIS EVENING THOUGH LOOKS LIKE THINGS
ARE WINDING DOWN FOR THE SAN JUANS. TO OUR WEST...IMPULSES OF
ENERGY CONTINUE TO KEEP CONVECTION GOING WITH THE STRONGEST WAVE
CURRENTLY MOVING OVER SALT LAKE CITY CAUSING SOME SEVERE STORMS IN
THEIR NECK OF THE WOODS. HIGHER POPS UP NORTH AND LESS SOUTH FOR
OUR CWA LOOKS GOOD BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR PRECIP EVOLUTION
OVERNIGHT FOR ANY POSSIBLY CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

RADAR THIS AFTERNOON A BIT MORE SUBDUED COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO.
HOWEVER UPSTREAM MOSAIC SHOWS PLENTY OF ACTION ASSOCIATED WITH A A
PV LOBE ROTATING INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT BASIN...AROUND THE PARENT
LOW OVER THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. VORTICITY IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE
EXIT REGION OF A JET LEVEL SPEED MAX WHICH IN TURN IS TIGHTENING A
MID LEVEL CIRCULATION DROPPING THROUGH OUR NORTHERN CWA LATE THIS
EVENING. CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY IN THE ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
OVERNIGHT LOOKS TO BE RELEASED BY THE FRONTO BAND AND KEPT THE
HIGHEST POPS RUNNING NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70 THROUGH SUNRISE.
ISOLATED STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE BUT CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH AND POPS WILL BE TRENDING DOWNWARD AFTER SUNSET. LOWS TONIGHT
LOOK A BIT MILDER THAN THE PAST FEW NIGHTS.

THURSDAY THE TROUGH DIGS THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND LINGERS OVER
THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. AFTERNOON AND EVENING JET
SUPPORT OVER A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
AND STORMS NORTH OF I-70. A FEW THOSE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
PRODUCING HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS. STORM INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET BUT SOME STORMS MAY CONTINUE
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 332 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

A QUICK AND DRAMATIC TRANSITION FROM COOL TO WARM IS EXPECTED
THROUGH MONDAY.

TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN RUNNING BELOW NORMAL FOR MUCH OF MAY BUT
WILL QUICKLY TRANSITION TO 5-10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL BY MONDAY.
THE CULPRIT IS A BUILDING RIDGE FROM THE SW THAT WILL WORK
OVERHEAD BY SUNDAY.

FRIDAY...SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL CONTINUE MAINLY ALONG THE
EASTERN CWA. FRIDAY NIGHT A FRONT RANGE COOL FRONT WILL BACK UP
AGAINST THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND MAY KEEP SHOWERS GOING
OVERNIGHT IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE SAN JUANS AND THE PAGOSA
SPRINGS AREA. MOISTURE AND STORM COVERAGE ERODE SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY AS VERY WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT LIMIT INSTABILITY.

MOUNTAIN SNOW PACK WILL GO THROUGH A PERIOD OF STRONG MELTING
BEGINNING SATURDAY...WITH OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPS STAYING ABOVE
FREEZING. EXPECT A RISE IN STREAM AND RIVER LEVELS INTO NEXT WEEK.

TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY THE RIDGE IS FLATTENED AS THE NEXT PACIFIC
TROUGH WORKS THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE. MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED UNTIL
PERHAPS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SHOWERS RETURNING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1045 PM MDT WED MAY 27 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT THOUGHT WILL
GRADUALLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND AREAL COVERAGE. MOST STORMS
WILL OCCUR NORTH OF A LINE FROM KCNY TO KAJZ TO KASE...EXTENDING
NORTH TO JUST NEAR THE CO/WY BORDER. SCTD TO NMRS SHOWERS AND A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE...THOUGH A STRONGER STORM COULD
BRING CIGS BRIEFLY BELOW ILS CIGS AT KGJT...KRIL...KEGE...
KASE...KVEL...AND ANY AIRPORTS OVER NW CO. STRONGER STORMS ARE
STILL CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THURSDAY SHOULD SEE A SIMILAR TREND AS TODAY...WITH SCTD TO NMRS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AFTER 18Z MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...CC
SHORT TERM...15/JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...CC



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.