Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 161810
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1210 PM MDT WED APR 16 2014

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

THE FIRST OF TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TO AFFECT THE AREA WAS PASSING
ACROSS WY EARLY THIS MORNING AND PUSHING A COLD FRONT INTO NE UT/NW
CO. THE STEAMBOAT RESORT POWDER CAM SHOWED SOME LIGHT SNOW AT
TIMES ON THE MTN...AND KGJX RADAR INDICATED SOME LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE OVER THE FLATTOPS. KCCU OBS ALSO REPORTING SOME LIGHT SNOW
NEAR COPPER MTN. OTHERWISE...MAINLY JUST A MID-LEVEL DECK OF CLOUDS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH. THE RAP13 MODEL SHOWS THE FRONT
SLIPPING SOUTH AND LOSING DEFINITION THROUGH THE MORNING.

THE SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS PUSHING ACROSS WA/OR AND DRIVEN BY A
PACIFIC JET. THIS DISTURBANCE SHOULD RE-INVIGORATE MTN SHOWERS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH TO SOME EXTENT THIS AFTERNOON AS IT
TRACKS FARTHER SOUTH AND ACROSS ERN UT/WRN CO LATE TODAY AND
INTERACTS WITH THE REMNANT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. LIFTED INDEX SHOWS
MEAGER INSTABILITY...BUT NEGATIVE EPV IN THE 700-600 MB LAYER MAY
INDICATE SOME TENDENCY FOR SLANTWISE CONVECTION. HOWEVER...DID TRIM
AFTERNOON POPS BACK A TAD GIVEN LIMITED MOISTURE. SNOW ACCUMS WILL
BE RATHER MINIMAL.

CLEARING WILL FOLLOW THE TROUGH THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT. TEMPS WILL
DIP INTO THE 30S IN THE GRAND VALLEY...NORTH FORK...AND UNCOMPAHGRE
RIVER VALLEYS TONIGHT BUT LOOK TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE FREEZING.

MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARMER CONDITIONS ARE ON TAP FOR THU AS AN UPPER
RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 337 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN FRIDAY AS AN APPROACHING SYSTEM
MOVES INTO THE GREAT BASIN. SOME MINIMAL DISAGREEMENT WITH
EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM AND WHETHER A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE CWA
OR A CLOSED LOW BUT RESULTANT WEATHER REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME. AS
THE LOW/TROUGH APPROACHES...SOME...NOT MUCH...MOISTURE WILL GET
ENTRAINED INTO THE AREA FROM THE PACIFIC. INSTABILITY WILL
INCREASE AS INDICATED BY INCREASING CAPE VALUES AND STEEPER LAPSE
RATES SO SOME RAIN/STORMS ARE EXPECTED WITH SOME SNOW AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS BUT BELOW ANY WARNING CRITERIA.

BY SATURDAY...THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BEGIN MOVING ACROSS THE
CWA CAUSING PLENTY OF LIFT WITH BOTH THE EC AND GFS SHOWING
WIDESPREAD RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION WITH A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS ALSO POSSIBLE. AGAIN...SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY HIGH NEAR 10K FEET OR SO.  CANNOT SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF
COLD AIR ADVECTION AT ANY LEVEL WITH THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPS WILL
DROP SOME DUE TO CLOUDS AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING SATURDAY BUT
SHOULD REBOUND QUICKLY. PRECIP STARTS TO LIGHTEN TOWARDS SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BE SHORT-LIVED THOUGH AS
RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND WARMING TEMPS MAY FIRE OFF MORE SHOWERS
SUNDAY EVENING AND AGAIN MONDAY EVENING.

ALL EYES THEN TURN TO A STRONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TUESDAY. WE CAN EXPECT SOME SHOWERS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS WINDS REALLY START TO INCREASE TUESDAY
EVENING AND BEYOND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY NOON)
ISSUED AT 1150 AM MDT WED APR 16 2014

CIGS WILL STAY WITHIN VFR CONDITIONS TODAY EXCEPT ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SOUTH OF I-70 WHERE SCT AFTERNOON -SHSN/-SHRA
WILL OCNLY PRODUCE MVFR CIGS AND OBSCD MTN TOPS. TAF SITES NOT
EXPECTED TO BE AFFECTED BY PRECIP. AFTER 03Z THIS EVENING VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA THOUGH WITH SHOWERS
CONTINUING OVER SOUTHEASTERN COLORADO INCLUDING THE EASTERN SAN
JUAN MTNS.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JAD
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...JOE



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