Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 032319
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
419 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

SOME LOW BASED OROGRAPHIC/COLD ADVECTIVE SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST
ALONG THE NORTH-FACING SLOPES THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
THESE SHOWERS WILL QUICKLY WIND DOWN THIS EVENING. HOWEVER SOME
LIGHT SNOW MAY PERSIST AT TIMES THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT ALONG THE
NORTHERN DIVIDE. OTHERWISE CLEARING SKIES WILL ALLOW GOOD
RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR COLD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES. MINIMUMS AT
SOME LOCATIONS WILL BE EVEN COLDER THAN LAST NIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE NORTH WHERE CLOUDS WERE PRESENT THIS MORNING.

WAA ASSOCIATED WITH A TRANSITORY WAVE CROSSING THE CWA EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING WILL BRING A VERY TEMPORARY STOPPAGE TO THE LIGHT
SNOW THAT HAS BEEN FALLING ACROSS OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. MODELS
SEEM TO HAVE SLOWED THIS JUST SLIGHTLY AND IT APPEARS THE BULK OF
THIS STORM WAITS TO ARRIVE TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THIS STORM IS
CURRENTLY ALONG THE NORTHWEST COAST AND HAS SOME DECENT MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH IT. HOWEVER...MOST OF THIS APPEARS TO GET WRUNG
OUT AS THE STORM WEAKENS BY THE TIME IT GETS INTO THE ROCKIES.
SNOW RATIOS APPEAR TO BE A BIT ABOVE CLIMO AT 17:1 WHICH COULD
LEAD TO 6 OR MORE INCHES OVER THE HIGHEST PEAKS. CONFIDENCE NOT AS
HIGH FOR SNOW AMOUNTS AT PASS LEVEL BUT THERE IS SOME WEAK CAA ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE STORM. THIS WILL ALSO ENHANCE THE ABILITY FOR
WIND TO MAKE IT DOWN TO THE SURFACE AND THERE COULD BE SOME WIND
GUSTS TO CAUSE SOME BLOWING PROBLEMS. TEMPERATURES STAY WELL BELOW
NORMAL AND DID MAKE SOME ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 304 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MORNING BUT MOISTURE WILL BE QUICKLY ERODING THROUGH THE
DAY AND WAA TAKING HOLD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THIS APPEARS TO BE THE
LAST CHANCE FOR APPRECIABLE SNOW ACCUMULATION IN THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. SATURDAY/S WAVE CONTINUES A WEAKENING TREND IN THE MODELS
AND NOW FLURRIES MIGHT BE ALL THAT HAPPENS SATURDAY EVENING. THE
BULK OF THE COLD AIR WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO SLIDE EAST OF THE
ROCKIES SO A GENERAL SLOW WARMING TREND LOOKS TO TAKE HOLD THROUGH
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID LEVEL SLOPES WILL EXPERIENCE THIS WARMING
SOONER THAN THE SNOW COVERED VALLEYS AND BASINS AS WEAK INVERSIONS
WILL BE IN PLACE. THE HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE THAT WILL BE BUILDING
OVER THE WESTERN STATES LOOKS TO DRIVE ANY MOISTURE WELL TO OUR
NORTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF SUNSHINE AROUND WITH THE SUN
ELEVATION INCREASING...LOW LEVEL SNOW PACK SHOULD BEGIN TO MELT AT
A BETTER PACE. OVERALL TEMPERATURES WILL BE BELOW NORMAL BUT WE
MAY BE CATCHING SEASONAL HIGHS BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 417 PM MST WED FEB 3 2016

SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS STILL PERSIST ABOVE NORTHWEST FACING
SLOPE IN THE CO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS WITH CIGS BELOW
ILS BREAKPOINTS KASE UNTIL ABOUT 02Z...THEN THE SHOWERS WILL
DISSIPATE. WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH/15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...CC


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