Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 252110
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
310 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS AND ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE
REFLECTION...OR SECONDARY FRONT...SWEPT OVER THE AREA TODAY...
AND IS EXITING THE SOUTHEAST CORNER OF THE FORECAST AREA AS THIS
FORECAST GOES TO PRESS. A NORTH FLOW HAS DEVELOPED ACROSS THE
REGION ITS WAKE. INSTABILITY SHOWERS HAVE ALSO SPREAD IN FROM THE
NORTH...BEHIND THE MORE EXCITING SHOWERS/WINDS THAT OCCURRED AS
THE FRONT PASSED. WINDS HAVE BEEN ON THE DECREASE THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH MODERATE GUSTS CONFINED TO THE SOUTHERN EDGE AT
THIS TIME.

EXPECT THAT THE SHOWERS AND ANY LINGERING WINDS WILL DIMINISH
QUICKLY THIS EVENING...WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS REMAINING ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY MIDNIGHT. COLD ADVECTION WHICH HAS CONTINUED
THROUGH THE DAY...WILL BECOME MORE NEUTRAL BY LATE THIS EVENING AS
A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THE
CLEARING SKIES...TODAY`S COLD ADVECTION AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL RESULT IN CHILLY OVERNIGHT LOWS...AT LEAST COMPARED TO
RECENT MILD CONDITIONS. SOME WESTERN VALLEYS THAT HAVE NOT SEEN
BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN MANY DAYS MAY DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S OR LOWER 30S LATE TONIGHT. IN THE GRAND VALLEY AND POSSIBLY
OTHER VALLEY AREAS...FRUIT TREES HAVE BEGUN TO BLOOM. THEREFORE
HAVE ISSUED FREEZE WARNINGS FOR THE GRAND VALLEY...THE UNCOMPAHGRE
AND THE CENTRAL GUNNISON BASINS...THE PARADOX VALLEY AND THE GRAND
FLAT. FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL BE LESS WIDESPREAD IN THE GRAND
VALLEY AND THE GRAND FLAT...BUT VEGETATION THERE IS FURTHER ALONG
WITH SOME PEACH ORCHARDS IN FULL BLOOM...AND THEREFORE MORE
VULNERABLE.

THE WESTERN RIDGE BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT...WITH A DRY NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR FORECAST AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO REBOUND ON THURSDAY.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 309 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

MODELS APPEAR CONSISTENT IN SHIFTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER THE GREAT
BASIN ON FRIDAY FOR DRY NW FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. A PACIFIC
TROUGH MOVES INLAND FRI NIGHT WITH THE NORTHERN SECTION RACING
ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES ON SAT. EXPECT TO SEE BREEZY WINDS DEVELOP
SATURDAY WITH AFTERNOON GUSTS. THIS MAY BRING A FEW SHOWERS TO THE
NRN AND CENTRAL MTNS LATE SAT AFTERNOON OR SAT NIGHT AS A TRAILING
700 MB COLD FRONT DRAGS ACROSS. THE SOUTHERN SECTION SPLITS OFF AND
THEN DRIFTS INTO THE SOUTHWEST/BAJA/NW MEXICO AREA. MODELS NOT AS
CONSISTENT WITH THE STRENGTH AND TRACK OF THIS AND MAY KEEP A FEW
SHOWERS AROUND SUNDAY. BUT OVERALL...THE WEEKEND LOOKS DRY FOR MOST
LOCATIONS. TEMPS REMAIN WARMER THAN NORMAL.

ANOTHER TROUGH MOVES INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW STATES NEXT TUE-
WED WHILE MODELS MOVE THE SOMEWHAT NEBULOUS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
ALOFT OVER THE THE DESERT SW/NRN MEXICO EASTWARD. MODEL DIFFERENCES
PERSIST. OUR FORECAST AREA APPEARS TO STAY BETWEEN THE TWO FOR JUST
A LOW CHANCE OF SHOWERS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1220 PM MDT WED MAR 25 2015

BRISK GRADIENT WINDS HAVE DEVELOPED AS AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVED
ACROSS THE ARE THIS MORNING. THESE NORTH-NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
PRODUCE WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO STRONG TURBULENCE ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH AROUND 02Z THIS
EVENING.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE MAINLY THE CENTRAL TO NORTHERN MOUNTAINS UNTIL AROUND
22Z...BEFORE DIMINISHING FROM THE NORTH. AT TIMES MOUNTAINS MAY
BE OBSCURED IN SNOW. VALLEYS WILL GENERALLY BE VFR...HOWEVER TAF
SITES KASE...KTEX MAY BRIEFLY SEE MVFR OR POSSIBLY EVEN IFR
CONDITIONS.

BY 02Z ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ALONG THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. VFR WILL THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.


&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR COZ006-011-020.

UT...FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 7 AM MDT THURSDAY FOR UTZ027.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...EH
LONG TERM...JAD
AVIATION...EH


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