Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 270450

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
1050 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Issued at 653 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

Made a few updates to the short term forecast through Friday.
Increased cloud cover for Friday and decreased temperatures a few
degrees. Also, increased pops slightly and changed precipitation
type from stratiform to convective for Friday as well.


.SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

With high pressure in place, conditions will remain dry and sunny
over the next 48 hours. Max temperatures will be about 10 degrees
above normal across the region through Sunday, challenging record
temperatures for this time of year. General winds will begin to
increase on Thursday as a trough moves onshore the West Coast and
will strengthen southwest winds over the Great Basin.

.LONG TERM...(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

A tight pressure gradient over the Great Basin persists through
the weekend with a slight break in the winds early in the day on
Saturday. Moisture from the remains of Hurricane Seymour look to
entrain into the approaching trough on Friday which leaves a bit
of an variable on the moisture content of the approaching trough
as it reaches the Four Corners. Winds will be strongest on Sunday
as a cold front approaches. Clouds will also accompany the
increasing winds by Saturday so may play a role in the mixing of
winds at lower elevations. Consensus on the long range models is
much better in the 12z runs today as compared to yesterday. Not
seeing the large 700 mb temp spread post- frontal anymore which
gives heightened confidence on the solution. Frontal passage
timing still on track for sometime late Sunday through early
Monday. The GFS solution is a bit faster and stronger than the EC
and CMC. These runs all show precipitation associated with the
front mainly occurring north of the Four Corners, but confidence
on timing is still questionable with differing forecast solutions.
Diverging model solutions appear again on Wednesday with the next
trough approaching, so not confident on details but the region
is expected to remain in an unsettled period next week.


.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday night)
Issued at 1050 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

VFR conditions will dominate through the next 24 hours with high
pressure in control. A few mid and high level clouds will stream
across from time to time overnight into Thursday afternoon with
mostly sunny skies. Winds aloft will also increase from the
southwest Thursday afternoon with some breezy conditions
translating to the surface mainly over northeast Utah and
northwest Colorado. Otherwise, TAF sites will see little to no


Issued at 347 PM MDT Wed Oct 26 2016

...Near Record High Temperatures Possible Around The Area

A strong ridge of high pressure building over the Central Rockies
will bring unseasonable warm temperatures to eastern Utah and
western Colorado over the next few days. A few record or near
record high temperatures look likely on Thursday as the ridge
positions overhead. Here is a list of record high temperatures and
the forecast high temperature on Thursday at several locations
around our forecast area. Note: some locations will not reach
their record high temperature. Also keep in mind that the
forecast could change.

Location                Thurs Record  Year      Forecast High
                          High Temp              (as of Wed)

Arches Natl Park              79      1999           75
Aspen                         68      1950           67
Cortez                        75      1950           74
Craig                         73      1937           72
Grand Junction                74      1966           76
Montrose                      79      1960           73
Ridgway                       75      2008           71
Rifle                         78      1952           73




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