Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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640
FXUS65 KGJT 090449
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
949 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

A DRY BENIGN PATTERN CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK. THE HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE...ALONG THE WEST COAST TODAY...WILL MOVE OVERHEAD
BY EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A STEADY WARMING TREND TO THE
HIGH EXPOSED TERRAIN. THE VALLEY INVERSIONS WILL ERODE IN A MORE
COMPLEX WAY.

THE MORNING SOUNDING HERE AT GJT SHOWED AN EROSION OF THE DEPTH OF
THE SURFACE-BASED INVERSION. AS A RESULT WARMER TEMPERATURES WERE
SEEN ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INCLUDING MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS.
EXCEPTIONS WERE IN PORTIONS OF THE YAMPA/WHITE/COLORADO RIVER
BASINS WITH LITTLE CHANGE TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES AT MILNER-
HAYDEN...MEEKER...EAGLE. GUNNISON ENJOYED A NICE WARMUP THIS
AFTERNOON BUT UP THE EAST RIVER CRESTED BUTTE VILLAGE AND GOTHIC
SHOWED LITTLE DAILY CHANGE.

THIS KIND OF INVERSION COMPLEXITY WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEK. FOR
THIS FORECAST USED A MIX OF PERSISTENCE TEMPERATURES AND MODEL
BLEND TO SHOW A SLOWER WARMING TREND.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 320 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

THE DAY-TO-DAY WARMUP CONTINUES INTO SATURDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS
OVERHEAD. A WEAK WAVE DIVES OVER THE RIDGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
CLOUDS AND POTENTIALLY MILDER OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE LOWERS WITH THE BREAK DOWN OF THE RIDGE
SUNDAY. AN OPEN WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES BRINGING
A CHANCE OF SHOWERS TO THE NORTH. EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE GFS HINTS
AT A CLOSED SW LOW THAT COULD BRING A WET AND MILD PERIOD
ESPECIALLY IN THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 949 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

HIGH PRESSURE IN WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. SOME LOW
STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG POSSIBLE FOR KVEL AND KCNY BRINGING BRIEF
MVFR OVERNIGHT.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...NONE.
UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JOE
LONG TERM...JOE
AVIATION...TGR



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