Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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FXUS65 KGJT 161008

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service GRAND JUNCTION CO
408 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

Overall conditions similar to 24 hours ago with an expansive area
of high pressure stretching from the Intermountain West to the
plains. One cell of the high is centered off to our west over
S.Nevada with another located over the N.Plains where the main
ridge axis extends northward. A rex low continues to be trapped in
the ridge slowly spinning over the Plains of Colorado. Energy
moving from the Left coast trough through the high latitudes is
basically topping off this ridge and leaving it to extend more
along the mid latitudes of the CONUS by the end of this short term
period. The NV center will migrate to the 4 Corners region through
this time as well and should continue to basically suppress and
strong push of the monsoon. Therefor expect mainly isolated to
scattered storm formation the next few afternoons...though the
southward drift of storms today will become more easterly on
Monday afternoon. Still fairly dry in the low layers which will
continue to enhance outflow winds and provide boundaries for
additional storm formation. This is happening early this morning
with a subtle wave dropping southward through western Colorado
and intercepting an old boundary. Weak showers are developing over
the N.Unco plateau into the Paradox valley but do not expect much
to come of these. However this feature should help focus storm to
our south later today. PWATs continue to be a bit high in the
south and the threat of heavy rain will also increase the closer
to our southern border. Temperatures will remain to reach above
normal levels the next few days as well.

.LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

The high pressure cell over the much of the Western and Central
CONUS will be continue to be suppressed from expanding northward
by the westerlies which will be strengthening due to strong low
pressure over the Central Canada. As the axis of the large
northern system swings through the northern Great Lakes the center
of the high will finally be pushed over the Rockies into the
Plains. This will result in a better push of monsoon sourced
moisture northward into the Great Basin by mid-week. Our CWA looks
to remain in the ring of fire going into next weekend though there
are quite a bit of differences showing up in the overall evolution
of the weather pattern over NOAM by day 7. There are also some
interesting differences by mid-week as well as far as high PWAT
moisture moving into our CWA but will address that more as it
nears. Either way expect increasing cloud cover and thunderstorm
coverage by mid-week which should help push temperatures back to
more seasonable levels for the latter part of the forecast.


.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Monday morning)
Issued at 407 AM MDT Sun Jul 16 2017

VFR conditions will dominate the TAF forecast over the next 24
hours. Expect isolated storms over the northern mountains to
transition to a scattered coverage over the central and southern
mountains this afternoon. With mainly a southward drift to the
storms the southern valleys most likely to be impacted by storms
moving off the hills. Confidence highest over KTEX and KDRO again
this morning to be impacted by storms. Gusty outflow winds will be
the main threat though heavy rain may also temporarily bring IFR
conditions. Clearing expected by the late evening hours with quiet
conditions through sunrise on Monday.




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