Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Grand Junction, CO

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000
FXUS65 KGJT 191641
AFDGJT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND JUNCTION CO
1041 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

THE UPPER LOW CLOSES OFF OVER WESTERN UTAH THIS MORNING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY EJECT NORTHEAST ACROSS WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EXPECTED WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TO
GRADUALLY BECOME MORE SCATTERED IN NATURE BY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SNOW LEVELS CLIMBING BACK TO ABOVE 10K. WEBCAMS SHOW SOME
ACCUMULATING SNOW OVER THE GRAND MESA SO ADDED THAT AREA TO THE
GOING ADVISORIES. NO OTHER CHANGES PLANNED IN THAT REGARD. SHOWERS
END THIS EVENING WITH DRIER AIR SWEEPING IN FROM THE WSW AS WEAK
RIDGING TRIES TO BUILD OVER. LINGERING MOISTURE UNDER THE FLAT
RIDGE COMBINED WITH WARMER CONDITIONS WILL KICK OFF ISOLATED
SHOWERS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. TEMPS WILL BE RUNNING A GOOD 10 TO 15 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL TODAY...BUT SHOULD REBOUND NICE ON WEDNESDAY UNDER THE
RIDGE SLIDING OVERHEAD.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 351 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

TRANSITORY RIDGE MOVES OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL KEEP
PRECIP TO A MINIMUM FOR THE CWA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. MUCH LIKE
THE LAST RIDGE...AREAS FAVORED FOR PRECIP WILL BE ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BUT QPF AMTS DO LOOK ON THE LOW SIDE. FRIDAY
LOOKS TO BE AN INBETWEEN DAY AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND HGT
FALLS INDICATE LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING. THE DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
THE GFS AND EC CONTINUE WITH THE EC OVERSPREADING PRECIP FOR MUCH
OF THE REGION WHILE THE GFS IS REALLY HOLDING OFF. THE CANADIAN
BRINGS IN PRECIP FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND DRYS OUT SIGNIFICANTLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. OBVIOUSLY SOME INCONSISTENCIES REMAIN SO
CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH AS WOULD LIKE FOR THIS UPCOMING STORM.
WIDESPREAD CHC TO SCHC SHOWERS AND STORMS LOOKS GOOD FOR NOW
THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND.

BY SUNDAY...THE LOW WILL HAVE MOVED NORTH TO WY BUT UNSETTLED WX
CONTINUES AS GENERAL TROUGHINESS PERSISTS OVER THE AREA WITH WEAK
WAVES MOVING THROUGH THE MEAN FLOW. AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND STORMS
WILL BE COMMON...GENERALLY FAVORING HIGHER TERRAIN THOUGH SOME
CONVECTION WILL LIKELY DRIFT INTO VALLEYS FROM TIME TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1042 AM MDT TUE MAY 19 2015

UNSTABLE CONDITIONS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE EVENING PERIOD
WILL KEEP SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE PICTURE FOR EASTERN
UTAH AND WESTERN COLORADO. THREATS TO AVIATION INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS
AND SMALL HAIL AND IMPACTS TO FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND MVFR TO IFR
CONDITIONS FORM UNDER HEAVIER PASSING SHOWERS. WILL USE RADAR TO
FINE TUNE FIRST PART OF FORECAST BUT EXPECT SOME TEMPO GROUPS FOR
UNPREDICTABILITY OF THE CONVECTIVE CONDITIONS. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION WILL ALSO CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING WHEN
THIS STORM PULLS FARTHER EAST.

&&

.GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CO...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL NOON MDT TODAY FOR COZ009-010-012-
     013-018-019.

UT...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JDC
LONG TERM...TGR
AVIATION...TGJT


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